000
FXUS61 KOKX 151952
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
352 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Deep low pressure continues to track away from the New England
coast this evening. A series of low pressure troughs pass
across the region early this week. High pressure builds in for
the middle of the week before a frontal system impacts the area
Friday into Saturday. Associated low pressure deepens to the
north of the area on Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A deep (~976 mb) low pressure continues to track well offshore
of the New England coast tonight as it moves towards the
Canadian Maritimes. An elongated upper level trough will remain
over the east coast through early this week. Several impulses
will swing through the trough tonight with the first occurring
this evening and second one approaching from the north tonight.
The passage of the first impulse may allow for a slight
decrease in cloud cover, but the approach of the second will
bring increasing clouds towards day break from north to south.
Will leave the forecast dry overnight, but it would not be
surprising if a few interior locations observe a sprinkle
towards day break.
Lows tonight will fall into the 40s, about 5 degrees below normal
for this time of year.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper trough remains over the region through Monday night.
A series of troughs of low pressure will rotate across New
England. The cyclonic flow aloft will keep skies partly to
mostly cloudy through the period. Energy within the upper trough
along with steepening low level lapse rates support potential
for a few brief showers Monday afternoon and evening. Have gone
ahead and added a slight chance PoP, but a dry subcloud layer
may limit activity to a few sprinkles. Otherwise, a breezy NW
flow will continue, but any gusts will be occasional and
generally around 15 mph. Highs will be in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
Any sprinkles/light showers Monday evening should dissipate
after sunset with loss of daytime heating. Northerly flow will
weaken under a mostly cloudy sky conditions. Lows will generally
be in the 40s with some locations in the NYC metro around 50
degrees.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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An upper trough trailing back to the SW across the area on
Tuesday will gradually lift out to the NE, with building
heights and surface high pressure for the middle of the week.
Cyclonic flow across the area will maintain a fair amount of
clouds across the area Tuesday and possibly into Tuesday night,
but it should be dry. Surface high pressure then builds across
the area Tuesday and Wednesday with plenty of dry weather and
gradually warming temperatures.
Global models are still in relatively good agreement with taking
an amplifying upper trough over the mid section of the country
on Thursday toward the east coast for the end of the week. This
is expected to bring another round of rain to the region Friday
into Saturday. Warm advection showers ahead of the system work
up the eastern seaboard on Friday with a more widespread
rainfall event likely Friday night into Saturday. Secondary low
development on Saturday somewhere along the Mid Atlantic leads
to rapid cyclogenesis as the low tracks north of the area
Saturday night into Sunday. This will shut down the rain with
strong cold advection and gusty west winds on the backside of
the system. Keep in mind, with the main piece of upstream energy
still out in the east Pacific, there will likely be some
changes in the evolution and timing of the system. What does
seem more certain at this time is that we will be heading toward
a 7th consecutive weekend of rainfall being recorded at Central
Park.
As for temperatures, Tuesday will feature below normal highs due to
cloud cover. It will then warm up for the mid week with plenty of
sun and near seasonable temperatures. Additional cloud cover and
rain chances will knock highs down on Saturday with a much cooler
airmass forecast to work into the area for next Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Low pressure will remain east of the region tonight.
VFR expected at all the terminals through the TAF period.
N/NW winds 10-15kt will continue to gust 20-25 kt through the
late afternoon, gradually diminishing toward evening. Tonight,
winds remain from the NW around 10kt or less. Winds shift more
NNW by Monday morning remaining around 10 kt. There may be a few
isolated to scattered showers after 18Z Monday but confidence
in coverage is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional through the early afternoon.
Occasional gusts higher than forecast can not be ruled out.
Timing of ending of gusts may be off by an hour or two.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday through Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible in SHRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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The SCA on the non-ocean waters has been cancelled as winds
continue to weaken below 25 kt this afternoon. The SCA on the
ocean remains in effect through 4 am. Winds will start to fall
below 25 kt this evening, but seas will remain elevated around 5
ft tonight. Winds and seas should then remain below SCA levels
Monday into Monday night.
Sub-SCA conditions are forecast across all waters for mid week
as high pressure builds in from the west. A frontal system and
increasing southerly flow at the end of the week may then bring
SCA conditions to the ocean waters late Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time through the
upcoming weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides will remain relatively high over the next
few days due to the recent new moon occurring on Saturday.
Offshore winds will help mitigate tidal piling in most spots.
Guidance has come down with forecast tide levels for Monday
morning/early afternoon high tide cycle. Have gone ahead and
issued a statement for the back bays of Nassau and coastal
Fairfield where isolated minor coastal flooding is possible.
Otherwise, water levels will remain below minor flooding
benchmarks. Additional coastal flooding is not anticipated on
Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...