000
FXUS61 KOKX 161731
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
131 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure troughs pass across the region early
this week. High pressure builds in for the middle of the week.
High pressure along the eastern seaboard early Thursday moves
into the western Atlantic as a frontal system approaches to the
west. This system impacts the region Friday through Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track with just minor adjustments to temperatures,
dewpoints, and cloud coverage to better match up with observed
trends. Added in scattered sprinkles across coastal areas with
some weak reflectivity on radar evident.
Otherwise, an upper trough remains over the region today and
tonight as a series of shortwaves rotate through the area.
Cyclonic flow aloft will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy
today and tonight. While mostly dry conditions are expected, can
not rule out a few brief light rain showers or sprinkles for today
and this evening.
A breezy NW flow will continue, but any gusts will be
occasional and generally around 15 mph. Temperatures will remain
below normal with highs only in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Any sprinkles/light showers come to an end by late this
evening. Northerly flow will weaken under a mostly cloudy sky
conditions. Lows will generally be in the 40s with some
locations in the NYC metro around 50 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough will remain over the region on Tuesday, and
will gradually lift out to the NE, with building heights and
surface high pressure for the middle of the week.
The short term period will remain dry, with a partly to mostly
cloudy day on Tuesday. Surface high pressure then builds across
the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with plenty of dry weather
and temperatures starting to warm a few degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An amplifying upper trough over the upper midwest into the mid
Mississippi Valley tracks eastward Thursday and deepens into a
full latitude trough by Friday morning. The trough becomes
negative and tracks slowly northward along the coast through
next weekend. The likelihood of precipitation for next weekend
has increased with probabilities likely to near categorical as
energy rotating through the upper trough develops a secondary
surface low along the southeastern coast Friday night that
deepens through Saturday while tracking northward. With the
intensifying low a strong and gusty west to northwest flow
develops as the low moves to the northeast of the region
Saturday night into Sunday. With more certainty in
precipitation this upcoming weekend, this would be the the 7th
consecutive weekend of rainfall being recorded at Central Park.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure continues moving across the Canadian Maritimes
into tonight. High pressure begins building over the northeast
on Tuesday.
VFR. A few sprinkles or light showers are possible this
afternoon and evening.
NNW-N winds 10-15kt this afternoon will begin to diminish below
10 kt this evening. A light NNW-N flow then prevails overnight,
with most outlying terminals becoming light and variable. Light
NW winds 10 kt or less are expected on Tuesday.
....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may vary 20-30 degrees from forecast at times
this afternoon and early evening.
An occasional gust 15-18 kt is possible this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Afternoon through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR early, then chance of MVFR and showers late.
Showers likely with MVFR or lower possible at night. S-SE wind
gusts 20-25 kt late day and at night.
Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers early. VFR possible in the
afternoon. S-SE wind gusts 20-25 kt becoming W in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas have fallen below small craft levels. As a result, no
headlines are expected on the area waters with sub-SCA conditions
forecast through the middle of the week.
A frontal system with increasing southerly flow Thursday into Friday
may result in SCA conditions on the ocean waters beginning late
Friday, and continuing into at least Saturday. By late Saturday a
west to northwest flow behind deepening offshore low pressure may
bring SCA wind gusts to the non ocean waters as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides remain elevated today due to a new moon that
occurred. Offshore winds will help mitigate tidal piling in most
spots. Guidance has come down with forecast tide levels for this
morning`s into early afternoon high tide cycle. A coastal flood
statement remains for the back bays of Nassau and coastal Fairfield
where isolated minor coastal flooding is possible. Otherwise, water
levels will remain below minor flooding benchmarks. Additional
coastal flooding is not anticipated on Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/JM
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...