000
FXUS61 KOKX 171958
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
358 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in tonight and remains in control through
Thursday. Western Atlantic high pressure Thursday night into
early Friday gives way to an approaching area of low pressure
Friday afternoon through Friday night. Low pressure strengthens
as it passes northeast of the region this weekend getting into
Northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes. This low
departs farther northeast away into the Northern Atlantic with
strong high pressure building in from the west early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level trough remains over the region with another
shortwave lifting through the area tonight into Wednesday. At
the surface, high pressure continues to build in through
tonight.
Shower activity remains limited across the northeast, with only a
few light showers observed over our area so far. A slight chance of
showers remains through the late afternoon. Coverage is
expected to be less than it was on Monday.
Skies clear a bit tonight, with mostly clear conditions expected.
This combined with light winds will allow for another cool night.
Blended in some CONSMOS guidance with the NBM to capture the usual
cool areas across the interior and Long Island Pine Barrens during a
radiational cooling night. There is a chance that there is more sky
cover than currently forecast due to the shortwave lifting through
tonight. If this is the case, low temperatures could end up a few
degrees above the current forecast. Have kept PoPs out of the
forecast tonight as best lift looks to be east of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through Thursday. The
aforementioned shortwave will pass to the east by late Wednesday
afternoon and then brief ridging aloft takes place.
Wednesday will be similar to today with just lower chances of rain.
Current forecast falls just below slight chance PoPs. However,
scattered to broken clouds will be around in the afternoon. The
center of the high then shifts offshore Wednesday night and a very
light return flow sets up. This will cause Wednesday night lows to
be a bit warmer than tonight`s lows, especially along the south
facing coasts.
Thursday looks like the pick of the week. Highs will be in the upper
60s under mostly sunny skies. However, winds will be increasing
through the day ahead of an approaching frontal system. Gusts up to
20 mph are possible by the afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid level ridge moves offshore Thursday night through Friday. A
deepening mid level approaches Friday night with a closed off cutoff
low forming Saturday near to north of the region. This cutoff low
moves northeast of the region into Northern New England into
Canadian Maritimes Sunday into Sunday night. A mid level trough
moves in Monday and southeast of the area Monday night. Mid level
ridging takes place for next Tuesday.
At the surface, high pressure will be moving farther out into the
Western Atlantic Thursday night through Friday. An area of low
pressure then approaches Friday afternoon and across the local
region Friday night into early Saturday. The low pressure area
deepens and strengthens Saturday into Saturday night as it goes into
Northern New England. From there it will head towards the Canadian
Maritimes for the remainder of the weekend without any significant
change in strength. Strong high pressure will begin to build in from
the west but its center will not get near the area until next
Tuesday.
In terms of weather, next main rain event is in mainly the Friday
through Saturday timeframe. Rain expected to be light to moderate
mostly. Models indicate some low level instability as diagnosed from
the few hundred J/kg of CAPE across the area, so there is a slight
chance of thunderstorms Friday into Friday night.
Rain chances lower Saturday night with Sunday expected to remain
mainly dry. Winds will really start to pick up Saturday night into
Sunday so the main weather feature will turn to the winds for latter
part of this upcoming weekend. A quite breezy day is forecast for
Sunday. The setup here is a steep pressure gradient between strong
low pressure northeast of the area and strong high pressure
northwest of the area. The pressure gradient will be tightest Sunday
through Sunday night and then it will relax for early next week
allowing for a downward trend in wind.
For Sunday night through early next week with the westerly component
of the wind remaining dominant, dry conditions are expected.
Temperatures expected to exhibit a minimal diurnal temperature range
Friday through Saturday night. Daytime highs forecast are near
normal Friday and then more below normal thereafter for the rest of
the forecast period. There will potential for frost early next week
for locations north and west of NYC.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds over the northeast through this evening and
settles across the area tonight into Wednesday.
VFR.
Light NW-N winds continue through this evening with speeds under 10
kt. The only exception is at KBDR where winds are SW. Winds will
become light and variable 22-01z. A light NE flow likely develops
Wednesday morning, but it is possible for winds to remain variable.
....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may vary 20-30 degrees from forecast at times this
afternoon and evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR early, then MVFR with showers late. MVFR to IFR
in showers at night.
Saturday: MVFR to IFR in showers.
Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts 25-30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
With high pressure in control, expect conditions to remain below
Small Craft Advisory Criteria through Friday night. Then
conditions trend more rough with increasing winds and seas. SCA
conditions probable mainly on ocean Sat, then all waters Sat
night. Gales potential on most waters for rest of the weekend
with otherwise high end SCA wind gusts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Potential for minor flooding Friday into Saturday. Otherwise no
other hydro problems expected.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/JT
HYDROLOGY...JM/JT