000
FXUS61 KOKX 171630
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1230 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will remain over the region through tonight. High pressure
will then build into the region for Wednesday and Thursday. High
pressure moves into the western Atlantic Thursday night as a
frontal system approaches from the west. This system will impact
the area Friday and Saturday. Another low develops along the coast
Saturday and moves to the north and east of the area through
Sunday. High pressure will follow early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Very little shower activity across the northeast currently.
Expecting the activity to increase as we head into the afternoon
hours. Have maintained just a slight chance of showers over our
area.
An upper level trough will remain over there region today with
another shortwave lifting through the are this evening. Like
yesterday, while it will remain mostly dry, can not rule out a
few light rain showers, mainly during the afternoon/evening
hours. Otherwise, we should see more clouds than sun today, with
high temperatures in the upper 50s and lower to middle 60s.
Tonight, while the upper trough remains over the area, surface high
pressure will start to build in from the southwest. Some clearing is
expected, especially late tonight. It will remain dry, with lows in
the 40s and lower 50s. A few of the far outlying, normally cooler
could see a few low readings in the upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper trough finally starts to lift NE early Wednesday with
building heights through the short term period. At the surface, high
pressure will continue to build into the region, which will remain
over the area through Thursday. Overall, looking at sunny conditions
both Wednesday and Thursday, with gradual warming both days. Expect
highs on Wednesday in the lower to middle 60s. On Thursday, expect m
middle to upper 60s. Can not rule out a few 70 degree readings
in and around the NJ/NYC metro area for Thursday. Lows Wednesday
night will be in the 40s and lower 50s. Once again, can not
rule out a few upper 30s at the normally cooler locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An amplifying upper trough over the upper midwest into the mid
Mississippi Valley continues moving eastward Thursday night and
deepens into a full latitude trough by Friday morning. Global model
guidance remains divergent with the evolution of the main low
tracking to the east, and then the subsequent development of low
pressure along the triple point along the Delmarva coast.
Timing, placement, and strength of the developing coastal low are
uncertain. However, precipitation is still expected to begin late
Thursday night and continue into Saturday night, and possibly early
Sunday. n With the uncertainties have stayed with the NBM through
the extended period. Behind the low a strong and gusty west to
northwest flow develops as the low tracks north and east and high
pressure builds to the west.
With the area still on track for measurable precipitation into
Saturday this would mark the 7th consecutive weekend of rainfall at
Central Park.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds over the northeast through this evening
and settles across the area tonight.
VFR. An isolated sprinkle or shower cannot be ruled out this
afternoon and early evening.
N to NW flow continues through today, with winds remaining
10kt. Winds may briefly become SW at KBDR and KJFK late
afternoon or early evening. Winds light to near calm tonight.
....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may vary 20-30 degrees from forecast at times
this afternoon and evening.
Winds at KJFK may briefly become SW late afternoon, 21Z/22Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR early, then MVFR with showers late. MVFR to IFR
in showers at night.
Saturday: MVFR to IFR in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area waters, expect sub-SCA
conditions through the middle of the week. A frontal system
impacting the waters Friday into Saturday, with an increasing
southeasterly flow, will likely produce SCA seas on the ocean
waters Saturday. As a low develops off the Delmarva Saturday and
strengthens and tracks to the north and east a gusty west to
northwest flow develops and may produce SCA conditions across
all the waters late Saturday night into Sunday. At this time
gusts remain below gale force across the waters for Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/JT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET