000
FXUS61 KOKX 211947
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
347 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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Deep low pressure over the Atlantic will track into the Maritimes
tonight, and linger there through Sunday. High pressure will
build in on Monday and remain through the week. Meanwhile, a
warm front will pass to the north Tuesday night, possibly
followed by another Thursday night. A weakening cold front
should approach from the west by Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Deep low pres was east of Nantucket this aftn, and will continue to
track away from the region tngt. Winds will increase thru this eve
as the pres gradient increases. The biggest drop in winds overnight
will be across the interior, with LI to see the smallest drops due
to the relatively warm water surrounding the island. The modeling
keeps peak gusts in the 30-40 mph range, and based on the position
of the low, this seems reasonable. A wind advy will therefore not be
issued.

Rain across ern CT will continue to taper off thru 21Z. While
moisture remains in place roughly around 4000 ft agl, time heights
indicate subsidence across the region, so mainly sprinkles expected
until everything ends completely after midnight.

CAA tngt with temps dropping into the 40s. Too much wind and clouds
to let temps bottom out, so the NBM was followed with minor
adjustments.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A strong piece of h5 energy rotates thru on Sun. H85 temps per the
GFS drop to -2 to -3 or so. Low to mid 50s per the NBM seem
reasonable in this scenario so it was accepted for the fcst. NBM
pops suggest only the nwrn interior in line for shwrs, but based on
the setup, this may be underdone. Will stick with the NBM for now,
but if the model trends hold and the upr sys does come thru in the
aftn, would expect pops needed for isold-sct activity.

It will otherwise be windy on Sun as high pres builds into the
Midwest, keeping a tight pres gradient in place.

It remains breezy Sun ngt, especially the first half of the ngt,
which will me a limiting factor for temps. Some areas will likely
still drop into the upr 30s despite this, per the NBM which was
followed. The possibility exists that there is a decoupling right
before sunrise allowing temps to drop blw fcst values, particularly
in the interior.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Tranquil weather expected as high pressure remains in control. HIgh
temps on Mon look close to normal and should be followed by one
rather cool night Mon night under mostly clear skies/light winds
with the sfc high parked overhead. Areas of frost are likely mainly
inland where lows should bottom out in the mid/upper 30s, with 40s
fcst for much of the immediate coast and the metro area.

Models show a warm front passing to the north Tue night, and indeed
temps during mid to late week will be on the mild side per MOS
guidance and the NBM 75th percentile, with highs at least in in the
lower/mid 70s Wed/Thu, if not approaching the upper 70s in some
urban/valley spots N/W of NYC per latest ECMWF MOS. Less certainty
on how warm it will be on Fri/Sat due to proximity of a frontal
boundary especially on Sat, with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s
fcst for now, but Fri has potential to be at least as warm as
Wed/Thu if the nearby front remains far enough north.

PoP during the period no higher than slight chance with the
approaching front late in the week.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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An area of low pressure rapidly deepens just east of the area
this evening as it tracks towards the Gulf of Maine into
tomorrow. High pressure builds in tonight from the west.

Conditions have become MVFR to VFR across the city terminals.
VFR is expected to hold for tonight and tomorrow.

Showers have now cleared all terminals with tonight expected to
remain rain-free.

W to NW winds have increased 20 to 25 kt with
gusts at or around 30kt holding through this evening. Gusts diminish
somewhat tonight, but will still be in the 20 to 25 kt range.
Gusts remain the same tomorrow.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of any remaining category changes could still be off by
an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: Mainly VFR. W to NW wind gusts around 25-30 kt.

Monday: VFR. Gusty NW flow 15-20 kt in the morning.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Gale force winds are expected thru tngt, so a gale warning remains
in effect for all waters. Winds are likely to fall just blw gale on
Sun, resulting in the need for a sca.

Minimal SCA cond on the ocean, with NW winds gusting to 25 kt and
seas up to 5 ft, should last into Mon AM, then the longer term looks
mainly quiet as high pressure dominates. SW flow after a warm
frontal passage to the north could push ocean seas up to 4 ft Wed
afternoon/night.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected thru Sat.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/BG
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JMC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/BG