000
FXUS61 KOKX 212319
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
719 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure over the Atlantic will track into the Canadian
Maritimes tonight, and linger there through Sunday. High
pressure will build in on Monday and remain through the week.
Meanwhile, a warm front will pass to the north Tuesday night,
possibly followed by another Thursday night. A weakening cold
front should approach from the west by Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Deep low pressure east of Cape Cod early this evening will
continue to track away from the region tngt. Winds will
increase thru this eve as the pres gradient increases. The
biggest drop in winds overnight will be across the interior,
with Long Island to see the smallest drops due to the
relatively warm water surrounding the island. The modeling keeps
peak gusts in the 30-40 mph range, and based on the position of
the low, this seems reasonable. Wind advy was therefore
not issued.
Isolated showers across ern CT and the forks of Long Island
will continue to taper off early this evening. Removed
sprinkles from the fcst farther west as radars show any precip
confined to the higher elevations NW of the fcst area.
CAA tngt with temps dropping into the 40s. Too much wind and
clouds to let temps bottom out, so the NBM was followed with
minor adjustments.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A strong piece of h5 energy rotates thru on Sun. H85 temps per the
GFS drop to -2 to -3 or so. Low to mid 50s per the NBM seem
reasonable in this scenario so it was accepted for the fcst. NBM
pops suggest only the nwrn interior in line for shwrs, but based on
the setup, this may be underdone. Will stick with the NBM for now,
but if the model trends hold and the upr sys does come thru in the
aftn, would expect pops needed for isold-sct activity.
It will otherwise be windy on Sun as high pres builds into the
Midwest, keeping a tight pres gradient in place.
It remains breezy Sun ngt, especially the first half of the ngt,
which will me a limiting factor for temps. Some areas will likely
still drop into the upr 30s despite this, per the NBM which was
followed. The possibility exists that there is a decoupling right
before sunrise allowing temps to drop blw fcst values, particularly
in the interior.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tranquil weather expected as high pressure remains in control. HIgh
temps on Mon look close to normal and should be followed by one
rather cool night Mon night under mostly clear skies/light winds
with the sfc high parked overhead. Areas of frost are likely mainly
inland where lows should bottom out in the mid/upper 30s, with 40s
fcst for much of the immediate coast and the metro area.
Models show a warm front passing to the north Tue night, and indeed
temps during mid to late week will be on the mild side per MOS
guidance and the NBM 75th percentile, with highs at least in in the
lower/mid 70s Wed/Thu, if not approaching the upper 70s in some
urban/valley spots N/W of NYC per latest ECMWF MOS. Less certainty
on how warm it will be on Fri/Sat due to proximity of a frontal
boundary especially on Sat, with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s
fcst for now, but Fri has potential to be at least as warm as
Wed/Thu if the nearby front remains far enough north.
PoP during the period no higher than slight chance with the
approaching front late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deep low pressure near the Gulf of Maine tracks northeast into
the Canadian Maritimes late tonight, and slowly through the
Maritimes Sunday, gradually weakening Sunday afternoon.
Meanwhile, high pressure builds toward the region from the west.
VFR.
Winds remain from the W to NW and gusty through the forecast.
Winds and gust gradually diminish tonight, and gusts may become
more occasional at few outlying terminals. Not highly confident
on this occurring, so have maintained gusts in the terminals.
Winds and gusts increase Sunday morning, becoming more NW,
around 310 magnetic. Winds and gusts diminish Sunday afternoon,
and may begin to diminish earlier than forecast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may diminish less than forecast this evening, and more
likely late tonight. Timing of winds becoming more NW, around
310 magnetic may be earlier than forecast Sunday afternoon.`
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR. W to NW wind gusts 20-25 kt during the
evening, with gusts possibly ending late at night.
Monday: VFR. Gusty NW flow 15-20 kt in the morning.
Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gale warning remains in effect for all waters through tonight
for gusts 35-40 kt. Wind gusts are likely to fall blw gale force
on Sun, resulting in the need for an SCA on all waters into
Sunday evening. SCA cond should continue on the ocean waters
late Sunday night with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 5-7 ft,
gradually falling below 25 kt and 5 ft respectively by midday
Sunday.
The longer term looks mainly quiet as high pressure dominates.
SW flow after a warm frontal passage to the north could push
ocean seas up to 4 ft Wed afternoon/night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected thru Sat.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/BG
NEAR TERM...JMC/BG
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/BG