000
FXUS61 KOKX 232158
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
558 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the remainder
of the week. A cold front approaches from the west this
weekend, potentially tracking through the region early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes to the forecast. One of the coolest
nights of the season thus far is ahead as temperatures drop into
the 30s and 40s late this evening. Previous discussion follows.
Ridging will continue to build over the northeast tonight. A
weak shortwave currently over the Great Lakes region will track
around the periphery of the ridge, mainly to our north, late
tonight into early Tuesday.
Mostly clear conditions are expected this evening with winds
diminishing as surface high pressure settles overhead. This
will lead to light to calm winds under a dry atmosphere with
ideal radiational cooling conditions to start the night.
Scattered mid level clouds and some cirrus are possible early
Tuesday morning with the aforementioned shortwave. Forecast
soundings and moisture profiles do not support widespread
clouds, but conditions should become partly cloudy for a time
towards day break. The ideal radiational cooling conditions
initially will lead to temperatures falling into the middle and
upper 30s across the interior. The clouds could slow down the
falling temperatures, but not enough to preclude the development
of frost. Have issued a Frost Advisory for Western Passaic,
Orange, Putnam, Rockland, N Westchester, and all interior S CT
zones from 6z to 13z. Temperatures should only fall into the
upper 30s and low 40s further south and east. Lows in the NYC
metro should only fall into the middle 40s. Some patchy frost is
also possible across portions of the LI Pine Barrens, but not
widespread enough for an advisory.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging will continue to strengthen Tuesday into Tuesday night
with 500 mb height anomalies 1-2 standard deviations above
normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure over the
area to start Tuesday gradually shifts offshore in the afternoon
and evening. The high will then remain just offshore Tuesday
night. Any clouds to start will quickly clear as the shortwave
moves east of New England. Mostly clear conditions then continue
into Tuesday night. Highs will be in the lower 60s for much of
the area, but middle 60s are expected in NE NJ and part of the
NYC metro. A light S-SW flow around the high Tuesday night
likely brings slightly milder temperatures compared to tonight
(Monday Night). Lows are forecast to fall into the lower 40s for
much of the interior and middle and upper 40s elsewhere. The
NYC metro will only fall into the lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging remains anchored over the Eastern US through late week,
maintaining dry, mild conditions for much of the period. Persistent
SW flow will help transport a milder air mass into the region mid
to late week, with 850 mb temperatures climbing to around +15C
by Thursday. This should translate to several days topping out
in the 70s at the surface, or about 10 degrees above
climatological normals into the weekend. Nights will be mild as
well; lows in the 50s or low 60s.
Weak shortwaves look to pass around the ridge well to the north
Wed into Thu, and again Fri into Sat. This may allow for a bit
of extra cloud cover, but conditions look to remain mostly, if
not entirely, dry locally. By the weekend, troughing begins to
dig into the Upper Great Lakes, helping to shunt the ridging to
the south and east. On the leading edge of this trough, a cold
front will attempt to slowly advance eastward. Model differences
increase into early next week with the timing/progression of
this front and the breakdown of the ridge. For now, increasing
rain chances early next week with the approaching boundary,
though capped PoPs at chance (40%) Sunday through next Monday
given the uncertainty at this point. Largely stuck close to the
national blend for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region through the TAF
period.
VFR.
NW winds around 10kt will gradually diminish and become more
northerly late this afternoon and early evening. There will be a
period late tonight/early Tuesday morning where the winds will
become light and variable, with winds on Tuesday morning
becoming more southerly 5-8 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tonight through Saturday: VFR. No significant wind issues
through Saturday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at:
https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the rest of the
week into next weekend as high pressure remains in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>008.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS