000
FXUS61 KOKX 241140
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the remainder
of the week. High pressure moves farther south of the region
Friday. A weak surface trough moves across Friday into Friday
night. Low pressure allows for a cold front to approach from the
north Saturday into Saturday night and then to stall near the
area. Wave of low pressure associated with front moves north of
the area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperatures this morning have followed the forecast well for
parts of the interior, but have lowered temperatures on Long
Island for this update as they were underestimating the amount
of cooling, likely because of a late arrival of the increased
cloud cover. All else in the forecast remains on track.
Calm winds and clear skies are allowing for a cold start for
everyone this morning. Frost advisories are in place for parts
of the interior until 9AM. A Frost Advisory is not in place for
the Pine Barrens of Long Island, though patchy frost will still
occur.
High pressure will build overhead today with a mid/upper-level
ridge nosing in, raising mid-level heights. Cloud cover should
remain sunny to mostly sunny with the exception of this morning
as a small shortwave to our north passes, bringing mostly sunny
to partly cloudy skies for early-to-mid morning becoming sunny
in the afternoon. The sunshine with rising mid-level heights
will allow for temperatures to begin to warm today, also aided
by wind turning southwest later today caused by surface high
pressure shifting to the south and east. Highs will be in the
mid/low 60s which is close to seasonal norms.
Tonight will be a cool night with mostly clear skies, interior
locations dropping into the low-40s. Unlikely to reach the
upper-30s as increasing mid-level heights from a building ridge
and warmer air aloft may prevent further cooling in the
interior. Areas of the coast will also see SW 5-10 mph winds
preventing any significant radiational cooling and instead
bringing in milder air with lows in the mid-50s to upper-40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Ridging builds aloft on Wednesday and Thursday with anomalous
20+ dam 500mb heights. Warmer temperatures will be brought in by
a persistent SW flow as surface high pressure sits to our
south. 850mb temperatures will be 10-15C warmer during this
timeframe compared to Sunday and Monday which will translate to
warmer temperatures at the surface.
Warmer temperatures will occur Wednesday, but will be limited
by increased cloud cover Wednesday afternoon and night as a mid-
level shortwave follows the northern periphery of the mid-level
ridge and brings partly to mostly cloudy skies. Moisture will be
lacking, preventing any precipitation. Highs will be in the
upper-60s for most with a few in the NYC metro near 70.
By losing the cloud cover on Thursday, we will see more
significant warming with highs in the mid/low-70s with only the
eastern end of Long Island staying in the upper-60s. These
temperatures will be more than 10 degrees above average, but no
records are expected to be broken through Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper level ridge gets more suppressed Friday into Saturday. Upper
level height tendency nearly steady for the weekend. Large upper
level jet streak moves into the area from the north for early next
week.
Mid levels convey weak shortwave moving across Friday with slight
lowering of heights. Nearly steady mid level height tendency much of
the weekend, then a little more negative Sunday night into Monday.
More lowering mid level heights Monday into Monday night.
At the surface, high pressure will remain based to the south and
west of the region. A weak surface trough moves across Friday into
Friday night. A weak cold front approaches Saturday into
Saturday night and then stalls near the area for the rest of the
weekend. Wave of low pressure attached to the front moves north
of the area next Monday.
In terms of weather, dry conditions prevail Friday into the first
half of the weekend. Some possibility of fog Friday night with some
locations having their 4th consecutive night of onshore flow but
kept coverage patchy. Min temperatures will be the relatively
warmest for Friday night compared to other nights in the forecast
period, with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Then weather forecast features chances of rain showers for Sunday
into Monday.
Regarding temperatures, confidence increasing on temperatures at
least being in the 70s for highs, much above normal for this time of
year for Friday and Saturday. Considering uncertainty for temperature
forecasts, subsequent forecasts may trend a few degrees warmer than
currently forecast. Temperatures could reach near some records,
especially for Saturday. See climate section for more details.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure initially overhead, moves southeast of the region and
eventually offshore today into tonight. High pressure will
remain offshore on Wednesday.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Winds will be less than 10 kt throughout much of the TAF period. Wind
direction will be variable in direction initially this morning
and then more southerly late this morning through much of the
rest of the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of when wind direction goes from variable to more SW wind
may vary a few hours from TAF.
Wind speeds could reach 10-12 kt at times this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight through Friday: VFR.
Friday night: Mainly VFR but patchy fog late with MVFR to brief
IFR vsbys possible.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Patchy fog early with MVFR to brief IFR
vsbys possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the rest of the
week into next weekend as high pressure remains in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the daily record high temperatures for the local
climate sites for October 26th through October 28th.
THU OCT 26TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ *79/1964
Bridgeport CT 74/1963
Central Park NY *78/1964
LaGuardia NY *76/1963
Kennedy NY 78/1971
Islip NY 75/1971
FRI OCT 27TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 81/1963
Bridgeport CT 75/1963
Central Park NY 82/1963
LaGuardia NY 79/1963
Kennedy NY 78/1963
Islip NY 80/1963
SAT OCT 28TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 82/1984
Bridgeport CT *72/2010
Central Park NY 83/1919
LaGuardia NY 80/1984
Kennedy NY 76/2010
Islip NY 75/1971
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
CLIMATE...