000
FXUS61 KOKX 242311
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
711 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday. A slow moving cold
front then approaches from the north and west this weekend, moving
through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Any lingering mid level clouds dissipate after dark this
evening as high pressure remains situated just to the south and
east of the region. Forecast remains on track and previous
discussion follows.
High pressure over the region will result in clear skies and
light winds tonight. This will result in good radiational
cooling, with overnight lows falling into the 40s across much
of the forecast area, with NYC metro remaining in the lower to
middle 50s. A few of the far outlying locations in Orange County
may see some low temperatures in the middle to upper 30s. If
temperatures do drop this low, expect some frost to develop. No
headlines are expected with the frost, with less than half the
county expected to see frost development.
Followed a NBM/MAV/MET blend for overnight lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging builds into the region during the short term period
with a continued warming trend expected. While it will be sunny
skies to start, a mid-level shortwave will pass along the
northern periphery of the ridge, resulting in an increase in
cloud cover for the second half of Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Despite the cloud cover, conditions will remain dry.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
with lows Wednesday night in the upper 40s and 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging remains anchored over the Eastern US late week, maintaining
dry, mild conditions into the weekend. Persistent SW flow will
transport a milder air mass into the region, with 850 mb
temperatures progged at +13C to +14C Thursday through Saturday. This
will translate to several afternoons in the 70s at the surface, or
about 10 to 15 degrees above climatological normals. Temperatures
could approach daily record highs, particularly on Saturday. See
climate section for more details.
Weak shortwave passes around the ridge well to the north early
Thursday, and another Friday into Saturday. This may allow for a bit
of extra cloud cover, but conditions look to remain mostly, if not
entirely, dry locally. By the weekend, troughing begins to dig into
the Upper Great Lakes, as the ridging in place gets shunted to the
south and east. On the leading edge of this trough, a cold front
will attempt to slowly advance eastward. This boundary may backdoor
the region from the north on Sunday as a wave of low pressure rides
along it, as hinted by some of the global models, before working
back north as a warm front. Model differences remain early next week
with the timing/progression of the front clearing the region. For
now, increasing rain chances as the front slowly approaches early
next week, though kept PoPs capped at chance (40% to 45%) Sunday
through Monday given the uncertainty at this point. A much cooler
air mass looks to advect in behind the front, sometime early to mid
next week. Largely stuck close to the national blend for this
update.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure moves southeast of the region and eventually
offshore tonight. The high remains offshore on Wednesday.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Winds will be less than 10 kt throughout much of the TAF period.
Direction becoming SW tngt and remaining there thru Wed eve.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Exact timing of winds becoming SW could be off by 1-3 hours this eve.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Patchy fog early with MVFR to brief IFR
vsbys possible.
Sunday: Becoming MVFR in Showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the rest of the
week into next weekend as high pressure remains in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the daily record high temperatures for the local
climate sites for October 26th through October 28th.
THU OCT 26TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ *79/1964
Bridgeport CT 74/1963
Central Park NY *78/1964
LaGuardia NY *76/1963
Kennedy NY 78/1971
Islip NY 75/1971
FRI OCT 27TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 81/1963
Bridgeport CT 75/1963
Central Park NY 82/1963
LaGuardia NY 79/1963
Kennedy NY 78/1963
Islip NY 80/1963
SAT OCT 28TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 82/1984
Bridgeport CT *72/2010
Central Park NY 83/1919
LaGuardia NY 80/1984
Kennedy NY 76/2010
Islip NY 75/1971
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...BC/DR
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JMC/20
MARINE...BC/DR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR
CLIMATE...