000
FXUS61 KOKX 251124
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
724 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday. High pressure weakens
and moves south of the area by Sunday as a cold front
approaches from the west. The cold front slowly moves through
the area Sunday through Monday followed by a return of high
pressure for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Adjusted temperatures and dewpoints to account for the latest
observations. The GLAMP blended with the LAV seemed to capture
best the ongoing conditions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track.
An upper/midlevel ridge grows over the eastern US today
influencing our weather, bringing warmer temperatures to the
table this afternoon. 850mb temperature will be about 10-12C
above average which will translate to warmer temperatures on the
ground. Highs will be in the low-70s for eastern portions of
the CWA and in the upper-60s to eastern portions of the CWA.
Surface high pressure will be situated to our south bringing
persistent southwest flow. With a slightly stronger pressure
gradient, should see winds top off around 10-15 mph today for
southern coastlines and southern portions of the CWA. These
winds have actually been what has prevented much radiational
cooling for eastern Long Island.
Spotty or scattered cloudy cover will likely develop
this evening and last overnight as a shortwave tracks across the
northern periphery of the ridge. This along with SW flow bringing
in mild temperatures will prevent much radiational cooling with
overnight lows in the mid-50s and low-50s for interior areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging continues to build into the region during the short
term period with a continued warming trend expected. 850mb
temperatures remain 10-12C above normal and a +20 dam
anomalously strong ridge persists. Highs on THursday and Friday
will be in the mid/low-70s which is 10-15 degrees above normal
for this time of year. Most records during the short term period
should remain unbroken, but one or to Max T and Max Low T
records may be broken or tied with several climate sites coming
within a few degrees of their records.
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected on Thursday
which should allow for enough radiational heating to reach these
temperatures. Cloud cover may increase early Friday with a shortwave
depicted in most model guidance (of which, appears to be a
stronger influence on cloud cover than Wednesday`s shortwave).
Without the extra cloud cover, Friday would be hotter, but for
now forecasting Friday temperatures to be similar to Thursday`s
due to increased cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Global ensemble guidance is in decent agreement with the overall
pattern evolution, with the some timing differences with key
features early next week. The NBM was predominately used with some
adjustments for this forecast update.
The highlights for the long term are:
* Anomalously warm temperatures to continue on Saturday
* A cold front brings rain chances, mainly Sunday and Monday
* Drier and cooler conditions Tuesday and Wednesday
The upper ridging and deep southwest flow begin to break down on
Saturday as a mid and upper level trough heads through the Central
Plains Saturday and approaches locally from the Great Lakes Sunday
into Monday. This trough will move slowly, with the trough axis not
clearing the area until Tuesday or Wednesday. There is some
difference in the timing of this trough as it heads through the
area, with the GFS quicker/earlier than the EC and CMC at this point.
In terms of sensible weather, Saturday looks to be the final in a
string of unseasonably warm days as high pressure to the south
slides east. 850 temperatures rise to 12-13C, resulting in highs
into the upper 70s, for much of the area, especially inland. Coastal
areas may remain in the lower 70s with a bit of an onshore component
moderating temperatures. Interestingly, the interquartile spread in
max temperatures from the NBM is only a few degrees, adding
confidence to the temperature forecast and aforementioned warmth.
See the climate section below for possible records and additional
details.
Frontal system and cold front then approaches from the west on
Sunday increasing clouds and precipitation chances. Based on current
model timing, Sunday afternoon into midday on Monday look to be when
a bulk of the precipitation would fall. NBM probabilities of more
than 1" from Sun-Tue are in the 10-20% range, so not expecting any
excessive rainfall/hydrologic issues at this time. Continued showers
remain possible Monday night into Tuesday morning, depending on
timing of the system.
The cold front clears the coast on Tuesday, with clearing skies and
a cooler, drier airmass incoming. Winds will also be gusty, out of
the northwest. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the low 50s, a
few degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure moves offshore, remaining to the southeast
of the terminals today.
Southwest winds around 10 kts through the TAF period. An
occasional gust to 15kts may be possible for a period late this
morning and afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Patchy fog early with MVFR to brief IFR vsbys
possible.
Sunday: Becoming MVFR in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the rest of the
week into next weekend as high pressure remains in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the daily record high temperatures for the local
climate sites for October 26th through October 28th.
THU OCT 26TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ *79/1964
Bridgeport CT 74/1963
Central Park NY *78/1964
LaGuardia NY *76/1963
Kennedy NY 78/1971
Islip NY 75/1971
FRI OCT 27TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 81/1963
Bridgeport CT 75/1963
Central Park NY 82/1963
LaGuardia NY 79/1963
Kennedy NY 78/1963
Islip NY 80/1963
SAT OCT 28TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 82/1984
Bridgeport CT *72/2010
Central Park NY 83/1919
LaGuardia NY 80/1984
Kennedy NY 76/2010
Islip NY 75/1971
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DBR/BR
HYDROLOGY...DBR/BR
CLIMATE...