000
FXUS61 KOKX 251740
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
140 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remains in control through Friday, then
weaken and drift south by Sunday as a cold front approaches
from the west. The cold front will slowly move through from
Sunday into Monday, followed by high pressure for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Adjusted near term temperatures and dewpoints to account for
the latest observations, and bumped up high temps a couple
degrees in most spots based on numbers closer to latest
NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS which had a pretty good handle on things
yesterday to within a couple of degrees, with mid 70s for NE
NJ and adjacent parts of NYC, lower 70s most elsewhere, and
upper 60s along the immediate coastlines of S CT and eastern
Long Island.
An upper level ridge grows over the eastern US today influencing
our weather, bringing warmer temperatures to the table this
afternoon. 850mb temperature will be about 10-12C above average
which will translate to warmer temperatures on the ground.
Surface high pressure will be situated to our south bringing
persistent SW flow. With a slightly stronger pressure gradient,
should see winds top off around 10-15 mph today for southern
coastlines and southern portions of the CWA.
Scattered cloud cover will likely develop this evening and last
overnight as an upper level shortwave rides the northern
periphery of the ridge. This along with SW flow bringing in
milder air will prevent as much radiational cooling with
overnight lows in the lower and mid 50s in most places, with
45-50 in some interior valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging continues to build with a continued warming trend
expected. H8 temperatures remain 10-12C above normal and a +20
dam anomalously strong ridge persists. High temps under mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies will be in the 70s which is 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. Most records during
the short term period should remain unbroken, but one or two
daily high max and min temperatures records may be broken or
tied.
Cloud cover may increase early Friday with a shortwave depicted
in most model guidance, and which should be a stronger
influence on cloud cover than Wednesday`s shortwave. Without the
extra cloud cover Friday would be even warmer, but for now
forecasting Friday temperatures to be similar to Thursday`s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Global ensemble guidance is in decent agreement with the overall
pattern evolution, with the some timing differences with key
features early next week. The NBM was predominately used with
some adjustments for this forecast update.
The highlights for the long term are:
* Anomalously warm temperatures to continue on Saturday
* A cold front brings rain chances, mainly Sunday and Monday
* Drier and cooler conditions Tuesday and Wednesday
The upper ridging and deep southwest flow begin to break down on
Saturday as a mid and upper level trough heads through the Central
Plains Saturday and approaches locally from the Great Lakes Sunday
into Monday. This trough will move slowly, with the trough axis not
clearing the area until Tuesday or Wednesday. There is some
difference in the timing of this trough as it heads through the
area, with the GFS quicker/earlier than the EC and CMC at this point.
In terms of sensible weather, Saturday looks to be the final in a
string of unseasonably warm days as high pressure to the south
slides east. 850 temperatures rise to 12-13C, resulting in highs
into the upper 70s, for much of the area, especially inland. Coastal
areas may remain in the lower 70s with a bit of an onshore component
moderating temperatures. Interestingly, the interquartile spread in
max temperatures from the NBM is only a few degrees, adding
confidence to the temperature forecast and aforementioned warmth.
See the climate section below for possible records and additional
details.
Frontal system and cold front then approaches from the west on
Sunday increasing clouds and precipitation chances. Based on current
model timing, Sunday afternoon into midday on Monday look to be when
a bulk of the precipitation would fall. NBM probabilities of more
than 1" from Sun-Tue are in the 10-20% range, so not expecting any
excessive rainfall/hydrologic issues at this time. Continued showers
remain possible Monday night into Tuesday morning, depending on
timing of the system.
The cold front clears the coast on Tuesday, with clearing skies and
a cooler, drier airmass incoming. Winds will also be gusty, out of
the northwest. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the low 50s, a
few degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure remains offshore through the TAF period.
South-Southwest winds around 10 kts for the rest of the
afternoon. This evening, winds diminish and become a bit more
westerly. Some terminals may become light and variable. Winds
increase to 6-8kt Thursday morning around 15z.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected. Can not rule out an
occasional gust to 15 kt through 20z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Patchy fog early with MVFR to brief IFR vsbys
possible.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR in showers late.
Monday: Chance of MVFR in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas at 44025 and 44097 on the ocean are at 4 ft. Think seas
will remain under 5 ft in SW flow at or just over 15 kt, but
may get close E of Moriches Inlet this afternoon.
Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels into the
weekend as high pressure remains in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the daily record high temperatures for the local
climate sites for October 26th through October 28th.
THU OCT 26TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 79/1964*
Bridgeport CT 74/1963
Central Park NY78/1964*
LaGuardia NY 76/1963*
Kennedy NY 78/1971
Islip NY 75/1971
FRI OCT 27TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 81/1963
Bridgeport CT 75/1963
Central Park NY 82/1963
LaGuardia NY 79/1963
Kennedy NY 78/1963
Islip NY 80/1963
SAT OCT 28TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 82/1984
Bridgeport CT 72/2010*
Central Park NY 83/1919
LaGuardia NY 80/1984
Kennedy NY 76/2010
Islip NY 75/1971
* Also occurred in previous years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DBR/BR
NEAR TERM...BG/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BG/DBR/BR
HYDROLOGY...DBR/BR
CLIMATE...