000
FXUS61 KOKX 252238
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
638 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through Friday, then
weaken and drift south by Sunday as a cold front approaches
from the west. The cold front moves slowly through Sunday into
Monday, with a large dome of high pressure attempting to build
for the middle of next week as low pressure moves northeast up
and off the coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For this update the only slight adjustment was to raise cloud
coverage for this evening, otherwise forecast is right on track.
Continue to have additional bands of high and mid level clouds
streaming across from the west as mid level shortwave energy
rides atop the upper ridge anchored just to our south. With the
exception of SE CT low temps should be 5-8 deg warmer than those
of last night, ranging from around 60 in NYC, to 45-50 in the
usually colder interior valley and Long Island pine barrens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging continues to build with a continued warming trend
expected. High and mid level clouds streaming in from the west
should scatter for a time in the afternoon as the upper ridge
becomes a little more pronounced, and mid level shortwave
energy riding atop it moves east for the time being.
Record or near record daily high temps expected at most climate
sites per MOS guidance blend with minor tweaks. Highs should
reach around 80 in the urban corridor of NE NJ, the upper 70s
in surrounding areas including the rest of NE NJ, Rockland
County and the adjacent boroughs of NYC, mid 70s most
elsewhere, and lower 70s for the south shore of Long Island and
SE CT.
Light SW flow backing more S in the afternoon expected.
Falling heights aloft as stronger shortwave energy rides atop
the upper ridge should result in more high/mid level clouds Thu
night. It will remain mild Thu night, with lows in the lower 60s
in NYC and in the 50s most elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Global ensemble guidance is in decent agreement with the overall
pattern evolution for most of the period. However, some bigger
differences begin to show up towards the end of the period. The NBM
was used with only some minor adjustments for this forecast update.
To begin the period there will be a shearing trough across the
Northern Rockies and Intermountain West, with ridging into the SE
US. The trough out west does progress east by early next week as the
ridge along much of the east coast gets beaten down. Therefore a
cold front will bring the next chance of showers later in the
weekend and for early next week.
Temperatures will average well above normal to end the week for
Friday and Saturday. Look for it to be high and dry with a few spots
getting near record warmth on Friday, with more widespread record to
near record warmth on Saturday. More clouds eventually start to
work in later Saturday night into Sunday as upper level energy
approaches, but also gets sheared and less consolidated. With the
ridge breaking down into the second half of the weekend have PoPs
increasing to chance during the day Sunday and remaining through the
day Monday. The cold front is likely to stall a bit and get hung up
Sunday into Monday, thus the continuing shower chances. The
dynamics are not impressive as the upper trough gets elongated and
not able to consolidate upper level energy over the area. Towards
Monday night the upper level energy begins to pivot through and
progress east. Therefore PoPs decrease Mon night into Tuesday
morning. For Tue and Wed questions remain with the northern branch
of the jet stream. The ICON and CMC take the bigger piece of energy
in the northern branch and swing it through late Tue and early Wed.
While the new ECMWF is slower and attempts connect the approaching
upper energy with moisture in the SE states and off the coast. For
now took more of a compromise with a NAEFS and ensemble mean
approach. Thus have it dry for the day Tuesday, with more clouds in
response to approaching upper level energy and moisture off to the
south for Tue night into a portion of Wed. For now have kept PoPs
minimal and closer to slight chance category, but this is subject to
change with NWP disagreement towards Tue / Wed timeframe.
After the anomalous warmth Friday and Saturday, temperatures return
closer to normal Sunday and Monday with more clouds and lowering dew
points with the start of an air mass change. By Tuesday behind the
cold front temperatures are expected to get below normal for mid
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains offshore through the TAF period.
South-Southwest winds around 10 kts for the rest of the
afternoon. This evening, winds diminish and become a bit more
westerly. Some terminals may become light and variable. Winds
increase to 6-8kt Thursday morning around 15z.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected. Can not rule out an
occasional gust to 15 kt through 20z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Patchy fog early with MVFR to brief IFR vsbys
possible.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR in showers late.
Monday: Chance of MVFR in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Seas at 44097 S of Block Island had reached and remain at 4.6
ft as of 6 PM where a longer fetch of 15+ kt SW flow prevails.
Still thinking seas on our waters remain below 5 ft everywhere
into tonight.
Conditions will remain below SCA levels throughout the remainder of
the forecast period. Seas may get closer to 4 ft again into the
weekend as a cold front draws closer and remains nearby. It
should not be until Monday night or thereabouts where gusts may
approach 25 kt on the ocean waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels at high tide will be on the increase due to
Saturday`s full moon, along with persistent SW flow inhibiting
drainage out of the back bays of western Long Island and perhaps
the western Sound. Per bias corrected ETSS guidance think the
south shore bays are likely to see water levels touching minor
thresholds with the Sat AM high tide cycle. This looks less
likely for the western Sound along the CT and Westchester
coasts but can`t totally be ruled out.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the daily record high temperatures for the local
climate sites for October 26th through October 28th.
THU OCT 26TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 79/1964*
Bridgeport CT 74/1963
Central Park NY78/1964*
LaGuardia NY 76/1963*
Kennedy NY 78/1971
Islip NY 75/1971
FRI OCT 27TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 81/1963
Bridgeport CT 75/1963
Central Park NY 82/1963
LaGuardia NY 79/1963
Kennedy NY 78/1963
Islip NY 80/1963
SAT OCT 28TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 82/1984
Bridgeport CT 72/2010*
Central Park NY 83/1919
LaGuardia NY 80/1984
Kennedy NY 76/2010
Islip NY 75/1971
* Also occurred in previous years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...