000
FXUS61 KOKX 261358
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
958 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through Friday, then
weakens and drifts south Saturday. The cold front moves slowly
through Sunday into Monday. High pressure then briefly returns
for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Amplified upper-level ridge will be situated over the eastern
US today with surface high pressure just to our south, bringing
in light SW flow.
500mb heights per the latest global guidance will be about 20
dam above normal indicating a strong ridge over us. 850mb
temperatures will also be 7-10C above average. Afternoon
temperatures will to warm up into the lower 70s-75 for coastal
areas, mid-upper 70s for most areas and near 80 for NE NJ and
near the NYC metro. This means several records have a chance of
being broken or tied today. NBM guidance spread is fairly small,
and have leaned to the 90th percentile based on recent
performance with this airmass.
Much of the day should remain mostly sunny. Increasing clouds
are expected late and overnight Thursday as a 500mb shortwave
approaches, riding along the northern edge of the ridge. This
will limit radiational cooling overnight, leading to warmer
overnight lows in the mid/upper-50s. Minor radiational cooling
is still expected, however with some spots in the low-50s. This
is because the cloud cover will be scattered and will mostly be
made up of mid/high-level clouds rather than low- level clouds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper-level ridge over the eastern half of the country
begins to recede towards the Gulf of Mexico as surface high
pressure to our south also gradually weakens. Heights are
expected to gradually fall with small, but not negligible,
decreases in 850 mb temperatures.
A 500mb shortwave that arrive THursday night continues to pass
and will exit Friday afternoon/evening. This increased cloud
cover will prevent early warming with highs about a degree
cooler Friday compared to Thursday. Light southwest flow
continues. No records are expected Friday, but some climate
sites could still come close.
Mostly sunny conditions are expected on Saturday compared to
Friday. Despite more sunshine, upper/mid-level heights continue
to gradually fall with slightly lower 850mb temperatures. The
500mb heights will still be about 15 dam above normal. With the
sunshine, we could see mid/upper-70s. Low-80s are possible in
urban areas of NE NJ. More record highs are possible expected to
be tied or broken on Saturday.
Just like Thursday, most model guidance is in very good
agreement on temperatures through Saturday.
Saturday evening winds begin to increase and turn west to
northwest ahead of an approaching system. More on that in the
long term forecast...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Global ensemble guidance is in decent agreement with the overall
pattern evolution. Timing differences with key features early and
mid next week have come into a bit better alignment tonight, adding
some overall confidence to the forecast. The NBM was predominately
used for this forecast update.
The highlights for the long term are:
* A cold front brings rain chances, mainly Sunday afternoon through
Monday
* Cooler conditions return Tuesday into midweek
The upper ridging and deep southwest flow flatten on Sunday as a mid
and upper level trough heads through the Central Plains. This trough
will move slowly, and with energy out in front of the main trough
axis, will not completely clear the area until midweek. There is
some better consensus among the global guidance, with a weaker
leading wave moving through the flow Monday night followed by the
main wave late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Notably, the GFS
remains quicker with the evolution of this whole system compared to
the EC and CMC.
As a weak surface low develops over the Ohio Valley on Sunday, the
main frontal system approaches from the west. Thus, Sunday may start
out dry for much of the forecast area, but clouds and precipitation
chances will increase throughout the day. The low heads northeast on
Monday and brings the cold front through. Based on current model
timing, Sunday afternoon into early Monday look to be when a bulk of
the precipitation would fall. NBM probabilities of more than 1" from
Sun-Tue are essentially unchanged from the previous forecast, in the
10-25% range with highest probabilities across the LoHud.
Regardless, these low probabilities suggest a longer duration event
and so not expecting any excessive rainfall/hydrologic issues at
this time. Continued showers remain possible Monday night into early
Tuesday morning, depending on timing of the system.
The cold front should clear the coast on Tuesday, though slight
chances of showers remain for at least the am. Post-frontal winds
will also be gusty. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the low
50s, a few degrees below normal with slightly cooler conditions on
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. High pressure remains offshore through the TAF period.
Light SSW winds increasing to 6-8kt this morning around 15z
through the afternoon, then lighten again after 00Z Fri. Winds
may veer more westerly, but remain light, for the Friday am
push.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Patchy fog early with MVFR to brief IFR vsbys
possible.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR in showers late.
Monday: Chance of MVFR in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels now through the
weekend. Gusts may be close to 25kts on the ocean waters late
Monday with a frontal system nearby.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Water levels at high tide will be on the increase due to
Saturday`s full moon. Per ETSS/ESTOFS guidance, the south shore
bays of W LI are likely to see water levels touching minor
thresholds with the Sat AM high tide cycle.
More widepsread minor threholds will likely be touched with he
Sun morning/early aft high tides, expanding to coastal
Westchester/Fairfield and NY/NJ harbor.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Here are the daily record high temperatures for the local
climate sites for October 26th through October 28th.
TODAY OCT 26TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 79/1964*
Bridgeport CT 74/1963
Central Park NY78/1964*
LaGuardia NY 76/1963*
Kennedy NY 78/1971
Islip NY 75/1971
FRI OCT 27TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 81/1963
Bridgeport CT 75/1963
Central Park NY 82/1963
LaGuardia NY 79/1963
Kennedy NY 78/1963
Islip NY 80/1963
SAT OCT 28TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 82/1984
Bridgeport CT 72/2010*
Central Park NY 83/1919
LaGuardia NY 80/1984
Kennedy NY 76/2010
Islip NY 75/1971
* Also occurred in previous years-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/BR
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DBR/BR
HYDROLOGY...DBR/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...