000
FXUS61 KOKX 271622
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1222 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the south will remain in control through much
of Saturday. An approaching cold front will likely move through
Saturday night, then lift back north as a warm front Sunday,
followed by low pressure and a trailing cold front passing
slowly through Sunday night into Monday. Weak high pressure will
then build to the north later Monday into Tuesday. Offshore low
pressure could impact the region late Tuesday into Wednesday,
followed by high pressure on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid and high level clouds, associated with a weak shortwave,
remain over the region, and were thicker than expected, and
temperatures continue to run lower than forecast. Updated to
lower temperatures and highs a couple of more degrees. There
have been a few reports of brief light rain or sprinkles across
central and eastern Pennsylvania. A few sprinkles are possible
into early afternoon as the shortwave crosses the area and then
moves to the east. With widely scattered nature of the
precipitation and being brief will not mention in the weather
grids at this time. Clouds will be clearing west to east mid
afternoon. With the cloud cover heating will be limited into the
time of peak heating.
For tonight look for mainly clear skies with high pressure
still anchored to the south over the lower mid atlantic states.
Some patchy fog could form later in the overnight in some of the
low lying areas. Upper level energy is still progged to move
well north of the area. A light WSW and dew points still running
in the upper half of the 50s to around 60 will keep
temperatures running around 15 degrees above normal in most
spots as ridging continues to hold in the Gulf and SE states.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday look for dry conditions and another day of record to
near record warmth. The ridge begins to break down across the SE
states and a cold front approaches from the west. More clouds start
to move in, especially further west during the afternoon. There
should be enough sun for a good portion of the day to get
temperatures close to record levels once again with the leading edge
of cooler air getting to about the southern tier of NY and the
western Catskills towards evening. The guidance continues to show a
wind from due west at around 10 mph, thus coastal areas may not be
all that much cooler than the metro and interior sections. For now
went with the NBM, but in subsequent packages can easily see a
slight adjustment up by a degree or two with temps. Did not want to
get too aggressive here with temps with the approach of the cold
front and the prospect perhaps of some afternoon clouds.
Saturday evening will remain dry as the area gets behind the cold
front. Any moisture associated with the front appears to be quite
shallow, thus keeping it dry. It is later at night as heights start
to fall a bit that some shortwave energy attempts to get closer,
especially across NW interior sections. Thus after 6z have
introduced slight chance PoPs to W and NW sections. Noticeably
cooler air bleeds in behind the cold front on a N wind as dew points
start to slip into the 40s after midnight across eastern areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The streak of weekends with rain across the area is likely to
continue, as an approaching warm front brings overrunning rainfall
on Sunday especially in the afternoon, and also at night as a wave
of low pressure rides along it and then drags the sfc front back to
the south. With the H8 front still to the west, light precip is
likely to continue into Monday as well, then taper off in the
afternoon and evening. Progressively cooler conds also expected from
Mon into Tue, with highs on Tue only from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Another wave of low pressure should impact the area from Tue night
into Wed. ECMWF with its more pronounced, slower and more neutrally
tilted upper trough is more aggressive than GFS with this feature.
With temps dropping into the 30s Tue night well inland, precip at
the could mix with or even change to snow well north/west for a time
at the onset. Fcst for Wed afternoon/night per NBM calls for all
rain during that time, but latest ECMWF has trended colder compared
to its 26/12Z cycle, with its H8-10 thicknesses falling below 1300
dm and H8 temps to -2C to -4C during Wed afternoon, suggesting some
potential for precip to end as wet snow in the afternoon/eve as well
especially inland.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains centered to our south today. WSW-SW flow
backs slightly this afternoon with some sea breeze influence for
a few terminals. Speeds under 10 kt. Light SW to WSW flow
expected tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Patchy fog early with brief/localized MVFR or lower
vsby possible, otherwise VFR.
Sunday: Rain likely especially in the afternoon. MVFR cond likely,
IFR possible late Hudson Valley terminals.
Sunday night: Rain with IFR cond likely, LIFR possible.
Monday: Rain with IFR cond likely in the morning. Gradually
improvement to VFR during the afternoon and evening.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
No advisories are in place on the waters into the weekend. Seas
will be hovering around 3 feet today, and then closer to 4 ft
much of the time through the weekend. There is some potential
for marginal SCA cond wind gusts to 25 kt to occur in offshore
NW-N flow late day Mon into Mon night as low pressure passes to
the east, and also Tue night into Wed as low pressure passes to
the SE and pulls colder air down across the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Total rainfall Sunday into Monday should range from 1/3 to 1/2 inch
for Long Island and SE CT, and 1/2 to 3/4 inch for NYC and most of
the interior. No hydrologic issues expected as this rain should
occur over a longer duration.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels at high tide are already on the increase due to
Saturday`s full moon. Coastal flood statement already issued
for S Fairfield/Westchester as water levels at the Stamford
gauge touch the minor threshold with the midday high tide.
Per latest guidance, the south shore bays of western Long Island
and the western Sound likely to see water levels reaching minor
thresholds with the high tide cycles into Monday, eventually
expanding to NY/NJ harbor.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the daily record high temperatures for the local
climate sites through Saturday.
FRI OCT 27TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 81/1963
Bridgeport CT 75/1963
Central Park NY 82/1963
LaGuardia NY 79/1963
Kennedy NY 78/1963
Islip NY 80/1963
SAT OCT 28TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 82/1984
Bridgeport CT 72/2010*
Central Park NY 83/1919
LaGuardia NY 80/1984
Kennedy NY 76/2010
Islip NY 75/1971
* Also occurred in previous years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...