000
FXUS61 KOKX 281746
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
One more unseasonably warm day is in store before a cold front
moves through early this evening. The front will become
stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast on Sunday, with a wave of
low pressure riding along it and passing over or just south of
Long Island late Sunday night into Monday morning before passing
east of Cape Cod Monday afternoon. The low and trailing cold
front will move farther offshore Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure briefly builds. Low pressure will quickly follow
and move along and off the coast late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. High pressure will then build across for late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Just some minor updates to current weather conditions to better
reflect latest observation trends. Otherwise forecast remains
on track.
A few patches of low to mid level clouds may move across NE NJ,
the NYC area and parts of Long Island to start the day,
otherwise mostly sunny skies expected before the cold frontal
passage this afternoon. Temps will respond by rising to the
lower 80s in NYC and NE NJ, with upper 70s to near 80 across a
good deal of the rest of the CWA. The higher elevations inland
and south shore locations of eastern Long Island and SE CT
should reach the mid 70s. These temps are on the high side of
the MOS guidance envelope, which did very well yesterday in
areas less impacted by clouds along the northern fringe of the
CWA yesterday.
Cold front enters the area this afternoon after 18Z, and should
be accompanied by bkn clouds and perhaps a few showers inland
NW of NYC, with temps there cooling to the upper 60s/lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temps should cool off quickly following cold fropa as high
pressure briefly noses down from Ontario, into the 50s inland
and 60s elsewhere this evening, bottoming out in the 40s inland
and 50-55 for the NYC metro area the coast. Skies in the NYC
metro area and NE NJ should remain mostly cloudy due to closer
proximity of the front to the south, and then increase late to
the N/E as the high quickly retreats and mid level shortwave
energy/positive low level theta-e advection ahead of the
approaching sfc wave start to arrive.
A steady rainfall then expected for most of the day Sunday for
wrn sections, and mainly in the afternoon for ern Long
Island/CT. The rain could become moderate for a time during
the late afternoon mainly inland north/west of NYC, then may
lessen in intensity to a light rain or drizzle tonight before
picking up once again late Sunday night into Mon morning as the
sfc wave approaches and moves across or just south. Precip may
continue into Mon afternoon even after the sfc low passes with
the frontal boundary aloft still yet to move through, but should
become more intermittent/showery in nature Mon afternoon as mid
levels start to dry out and more organized forcing also passes
to the east.
Temps on Sunday will remain on the cool side, with
highs only in the upper 40s inland and mainly lower/mid 50s in
the NYC metro area and closer to the coast, and should only fall
slightly Sunday night, to the 40s inland and along the CT
coast, and to the lower 50s across NYC metro/Long Island. Highs
on Mon should be similar to those of Sunday, though parts of
Long Island could briefly warm-sector into the 60s early if the
sfc low tracks directly across. Temps should become steady or
slowly fall Mon afternoon via increasing CAA on the back side
of the low as it moves E of Cape Cod.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long wave trough in the mid section of the CONUS will
progress east into mid week. A potent shortwave will swing
through Wednesday, with a high pressure ridge to follow and move
into the area Thursday into Friday.
Noticeably colder conditions set up to begin the period Monday
night. A big change from the recent anomalous warmth. A cold
front gets further east Monday night into early Tuesday. Monday
night should be mainly dry, with perhaps a few lingering showers
across the eastern half of the area early on. Otherwise high
pressure at the surface is expected to briefly build or nose in
from the west and north Monday night into Tuesday morning.
However a digging shortwave across the Midwest swings towards
the area towards Tuesday night. This will bring the next chance
of precipitation to the area. The latest GFS continues its trend
towards the ECMWF and the other global deterministic guidance.
Low pressure is expected to develop offshore and move north up
and off the coast into Wednesday. The chances for light rain
will increase Tuesday night, with the highest chance of rain for
Wed AM for the eastern half of the area. An trough extending
west from the offshore low pressure may end up being a focus for
the light to moderate rain. The system should be progressive
enough that any rain should end towards by Wed evening. As the
precip shield begins to swing out and colder air comes in on the
back side of the departing system, a brief period of snow, or
snow mixing in with the rain cannot be ruled out on the back
side of the low. It is also not completely out of the question
that higher elevations for far northern and northwestern
sections could see a very light measurable snowfall.
High pressure should quickly build in behind the departing low
as it lifts away to the north and northeast on Thursday. The
high is then progged to settle over the area on Friday.
Temperatures will average below normal through the period.
Especially during the day time hours as day time highs should
average 5-10 degrees below average for this time of the year
much of the time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches this afternoon and crosses the terminals
this evening. Low pressure and a warm front approach Sunday.
VFR through the overnight. MVFR conditions develop Sunday
morning as rain overspreads the terminals. IFR conditions are
possible at the city terminals very late in the TAF period, but
think the better chances for IFR development are after 00Z
Sunday evening.
West winds around 10 kt this afternoon with quickly shift to
the NW this afternoon into this evening with the cold frontal
passage. Winds may gust to around 20 kt at some terminals for a
few hours immediately behind the front. Winds then diminish to
5-10 kt overnight while shifting to the N and then NE by Sunday
morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of both the wind shift with the cold frontal passage
this evening and the onset of rain Sunday morning could be off
by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday: MVFR in rain during the afternoon, deteriorating to IFR
at night.
Monday: Rain with IFR in the morning, improving to MVFR with
showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday night-Wednesday: Chance MVFR or lower with -shra. North
winds gusting to around 20kt Wednesday.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain mostly below SCA levels through
Monday. However, E flow may increase enough to allow for a brief
window of 25-kt gusts across the far ern waters late Sunday
evening, and as low pressure moves E on Monday, NW flow may also
gust up to 25 kt on the ocean and the far ern Sound late day
Mon into early Mon evening.
Low pressure moving just to the east Tue night into Wed may also
bring SCA cond mainly to the ocean waters on Wed.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns for Sunday/Monday or with the
system for mid week. Precip will be stratiform in nature and
likely not heavy.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will continue to increase into early next
week due to today`s full moon. Issued coastal flood advy for
this morning for S Nassau where water levels should be well
into the minor category at the Freeport and Reynolds Channel
gauges, and a statement for Jamaica Bay where the Inwood gauges
may touch the minor threshold. Water levels should also just
touch minor thresholds for SW Fairfield and S Westchester with
the late morning high tide.
Additional minor coastal flooding appears likely for the
morning/early afternoon high tides into at least Tuesday. The
minor coastal flooding should spread into the NY/NJ harbor area
and possibly include more of the southern/eastern shores of
Suffolk County.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the daily record high temperatures for the local
climate sites through Saturday.
SAT OCT 28TH RECORD HIGH/YEAR
Newark NJ 82/1984
Bridgeport CT 72/2010*
Central Park NY 83/1919
LaGuardia NY 80/1984
Kennedy NY 76/2010
Islip NY 75/1971
* Also occurred in previous years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$