000
FXUS61 KOKX 281954
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches from the Great Lakes this evening.
A wave of low pressure will ride along the front Sunday. Low
pressure impacting the region Monday moves northeast through
Monday night as high pressure builds in from the west. Another
low quickly follows Tuesday night through Wednesday, tracking
northward off the east coast. High pressure builds into the area
late Wednesday, and moves off shore toward the end of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A weak cold front will move into the area through tonight
accompanied by an increase of clouds. Temperatures will cool
off quickly following the cold front passage tonight as high
pressure briefly builds down from Ontario. Temperatures are
expected to be in the 40s inland and 50s elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A steady rainfall expected for most of the day Sunday. The rain
could become moderate for a time during the late afternoon
mainly inland north/west of NYC, then may lessen in intensity to
a light rain or drizzle before picking up once again late
Sunday night as a surface wave approaches and moves across or
just south of the area.

Sunday`s high will remain cool, with highs in the upper 40s
inland and mid to upper 50s across the NYC metro/Long Island.
Lows Sunday night will be in the lower 40s inland and low to mid
50s across NYC metro/Long Island.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A nearly full latitude longwave trough will be affecting the area
Monday through Wednesday night as the trough slowly translates
eastward from the Rocky Mountain states and off the coast Wednesday
night. The flow becomes nearly zonal with a weak shortwave tracking
through the flow Friday. Colder air will be moving in behind a
departing low Monday night, with temperatures near seasonal levels
Monday and Monday night. Temperatures will then be 5 to nearly 10
degrees below normal Tuesday and Tuesday night. Even colder air
moves into the region Wednesday and Wednesday night as another low
tracks off the eastern seaboard, and another high brings in colder
Canadian air. With the changeable temperatures remaining below
normal, blended the NBM and mostly CONSALL for temperatures
remaining below seasonal normals. Wednesday night, and again
Thursday night, temperatures are expected to be as much as 10
degrees below normal. A gradually warmup begins during the day
Thursday as high pressure south of the area drifts east and a return
flow develops. Temperatures return to normal levels by next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front crosses the terminals this evening. Low pressure and a
warm front approach Sunday.

VFR through the overnight. MVFR conditions develop Sunday morning as
rain overspreads the terminals. IFR conditions are possible at the
city terminals very late in the TAF period, but think the better
chances for IFR development are after 00Z Sunday evening.

West winds around 10 kt late this afternoon will quickly shift to
the NW this this evening with the cold frontal passage. Winds may
gust to around 20 kt at some terminals for a few hours immediately
behind the front. Winds then diminish to 5-10 kt overnight while
shifting to the N and then NE by Sunday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of both the wind shift with the cold frontal passage
this evening and the onset of rain Sunday morning could be off
by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: MVFR in rain during the afternoon, deteriorating to IFR
at night.

Monday: Rain with IFR in the morning, improving to MVFR with
showers in the afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: Chance MVFR or lower with -shra. North
winds gusting to around 20kt Wednesday.

Thursday: VFR.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds and seas should remain mostly below SCA levels through
Sunday night. Low pressure will be departing to the northeast
of the forecast waters Monday afternoon into Monday evening
while deepening, and as high pressure builds to the west. North
to northeast winds behind the low may briefly gusts to SCA
levels across the eastern ocean waters Monday night. Otherwise,
winds and seas remain below advisory levels across the forecast
waters through Tuesday. Then with another deepening low passing
east of the forecast waters Tuesday night into Wednesday ocean
seas and northeast gusts increase to SCA levels Tuesday night
through Thursday morning. Gusts on the eastern ocean waters may
briefly reach gale force late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
With high pressure in control Thursday and Thursday night winds
and seas will once again remain below advisory levels.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Hydrologic impacts are not expected Monday through the end of the
week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides will continue to increase into early next
week due to today`s full moon. Issued coastal flood advy for
Sunday morning for S Nassau and SW Fairfield where water levels
should be well into the minor category at the Freeport,
Reynolds Channel and Bridgeport gauges.

A statement was issued for Jamaica Bay where the Inwood gauges
may touch the minor threshold as well as S Westchester with the
morning high tide.

Additional minor coastal flooding appears likely for the
morning/early afternoon high tides into at least Tuesday. The
minor coastal flooding should spread into the NY/NJ harbor area
and possibly include more of the southern/eastern shores of
Suffolk County.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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The daily record high temperatures were set today across the
area except at NYC. For more information please see our RERs.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$