000
FXUS61 KOKX 291152
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast
while high pressure briefly builds into New England. Low pressure
riding along the front will pass over or just south of Long
Island late tonight into Monday morning, then head east of New
England by Monday afternoon, followed by high pressure into
Tuesday afternoon. Low pressure will quickly move along and off
the coast late Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will
then build across for late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar shows band of sct to numerous showers from NYC west into
ern PA. Expect coverage with this band to increase through the
morning mainly from the city north/west this morning, and also
expand eastward late this morning and this afternoon.
A non-diurnal temp trend expected today, with high temps not
changing much from current temps and occurring in the AM before
combo of CAA and rain cools temps further into the upper 40s
and lower 50s this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periods of light rain should continue tonight into Mon AM, with
temps remaining nearly steady inland and increasing to the mid
50s to lower 60s in the metro area and in coastal sections. The
rain should taper off Mon afternoon as the sfc wave moves E of
New England, but skies will take longer to improve, clearing out
mainly after midnight Mon night. Highs on Mon should range from
the lower 50s inland to lower 60s closer to the coast, then
cool off to the lower 40s in NYC, upper 30s most elsewhere, and
mid 30s inland where frost may be possible.
Daytime Tue should be mostly sunny for the most part, with the
NYC metro area and Long Island seeing increasing clouds in the
afternoon in advance of offshore low pressure. It will be cool,
with highs only in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long wave trough in the mid section of the CONUS will progress
east into mid week. A shortwave will swing through Wednesday, with a
high pressure ridge to follow and move into the area Thursday into
Friday. High pressure should remain in control just south of the
area to begin next weekend.
A digging but progressive shortwave across the Midwest swings east
and approaches the area late Tuesday night. This will bring the next
chance of precipitation to the area. The global deterministic
guidance appears to have come more in line with a compromise now
between the ECMWF, GFS, ICON, and CMC. Low pressure is expected to
develop offshore and move north up and off the coast into Wednesday.
The chances for light rain will increase Tuesday night, with the
highest chance of rain for Wed AM for the eastern half of the area.
An trough extending west from the offshore low pressure may end up
being a focus for a more organized area of light rain for the
eastern half of the area. The system should be progressive enough
that any rain should end towards by early Wed evening. As the precip
shield begins to swing out and colder air comes in on the back side
of the departing system, cannot rule out a bit of a rain / wet snow
mix, or the precip briefly ending as just some wet snow across some
of the higher elevations to the north and northwest. Thus the first
flakes of the season are possible across far interior sections. High
pressure should quickly build in behind the departing low as it
lifts away to the north and northeast on Thursday. The high is then
progged to settle over the area on Friday, before gradually sliding
just south of the area into next weekend and likely remaining in
control on Saturday resulting in a dry start to next weekend.
Temperatures will average below normal Wednesday and Thursday by
about 5 to 10 degrees. Then the air mass moderates with temperatures
returning to normal beginning on Friday, and into next weekend. Good
agreement among ensemble guidance in keeping the trough axis far
enough back to the west to keep high pressure nearby for the start
of next weekend to remain dry.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure and a warm front approach today, with the low moving
through tonight.
MVFR conditions develop late this morning as rain overspreads the
terminals. IFR develops during this afternoon. IFR remains, with
some LIFR ceilings tonight.
NE to ENE winds around 10 kt today and lowering to 5 kt this evening.
Light winds late tonight and then becoming more N and NW into the
Monday AM push.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for lowering flight cats late this morning and
during tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: Rain with LIFR early in the morning, improving to IFR and
eventually MVFR with showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday night-Wednesday: Chance MVFR or lower with -shra. North
winds gusting to around 20kt Wednesday.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Issued SCA for the ocean E of Moriches Inlet beginning this
afternoon, and from Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet, with
both running through tonight. E flow increasing to 15-20 this
afternoon may gusts to 25 kt at times, but more importantly
build ocean seas to 5-6 ft this afternoon into tonight. Winds
and seas subside by daytime Mon, the minimal SCA cond may be
possible on the ocean waters Mon night as low pressure pulls
away E of New England and high pressure builds into the waters.
Marginal SCA cond are likely on the ocean and perhaps some of
the eastern non-ocean zones on Wed with another low likely
moving just east of the waters. On the back side of the low the
winds will switch to the N-NW and gradually diminish Wed night,
with sub-advy cond across all waters. A large dome of high
pressure building on Thu will settle across the waters on Fri,
leading to a relatively weak pressure gradient and mainly 3 ft
ocean seas for late week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Long duration rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch through Mon afternoon
expected for the interior, with lesser amts of around 1/2 inch
for the NYC metro area, and slightly less than that for Long
Island. Hydrologic impacts not expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will continue to increase into early next
week due to Saturday`s full moon. Issued coastal flood advy for
Sunday morning for S Nassau and SW Fairfield where water
levels should be well into the minor category at the Freeport,
Reynolds Channel and Bridgeport gauges.
A statement was issued for Jamaica Bay where the Inwood gauges
may touch the minor threshold, as well as S Westchester with
the morning high tide.
Additional minor coastal flooding appears likely for the
morning/early afternoon high tides into at least Tuesday. The
minor coastal flooding should spread into the NY/NJ harbor area
and possibly include more of the southern/eastern shores of
Suffolk County.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday
for ANZ353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...