000
FXUS61 KOKX 291801
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
201 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast
while high pressure briefly builds into New England. Low pressure
riding along the front will pass over or just south of Long
Island late tonight into Monday morning, then head east of New
England by Monday afternoon, followed by high pressure into
Tuesday afternoon. Low pressure will quickly move along and off
the coast late Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will
then build across for late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mostly minor adjustments to the forecast with this update.
Showers will continue through the day, with the greatest
coverage remaining north of NYC.
High temperatures have likely already occurred for much of the
area, with a combo of CAA and rain cooling temps further into
the upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periods of light rain should continue tonight into Mon AM, with
temps remaining nearly steady inland and increasing to the mid
50s to lower 60s in the metro area and in coastal sections. The
rain should taper off Mon afternoon as the sfc wave moves E of
New England, but skies will take longer to improve, clearing out
mainly after midnight Mon night. Highs on Mon should range from
the lower 50s inland to lower 60s closer to the coast, then
cool off to the lower 40s in NYC, upper 30s most elsewhere, and
mid 30s inland where frost may be possible.
Daytime Tue should be mostly sunny for the most part, with the
NYC metro area and Long Island seeing increasing clouds in the
afternoon in advance of offshore low pressure. It will be cool,
with highs only in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long wave trough in the mid section of the CONUS will progress
east into mid week. A shortwave will swing through Wednesday, with a
high pressure ridge to follow and move into the area Thursday into
Friday. High pressure should remain in control just south of the
area to begin next weekend.
A digging but progressive shortwave across the Midwest swings east
and approaches the area late Tuesday night. This will bring the next
chance of precipitation to the area. The global deterministic
guidance appears to have come more in line with a compromise now
between the ECMWF, GFS, ICON, and CMC. Low pressure is expected to
develop offshore and move north up and off the coast into Wednesday.
The chances for light rain will increase Tuesday night, with the
highest chance of rain for Wed AM for the eastern half of the area.
An trough extending west from the offshore low pressure may end up
being a focus for a more organized area of light rain for the
eastern half of the area. The system should be progressive enough
that any rain should end towards by early Wed evening. As the precip
shield begins to swing out and colder air comes in on the back side
of the departing system, cannot rule out a bit of a rain / wet snow
mix, or the precip briefly ending as just some wet snow across some
of the higher elevations to the north and northwest. Thus the first
flakes of the season are possible across far interior sections. High
pressure should quickly build in behind the departing low as it
lifts away to the north and northeast on Thursday. The high is then
progged to settle over the area on Friday, before gradually sliding
just south of the area into next weekend and likely remaining in
control on Saturday resulting in a dry start to next weekend.
Temperatures will average below normal Wednesday and Thursday by
about 5 to 10 degrees. Then the air mass moderates with temperatures
returning to normal beginning on Friday, and into next weekend. Good
agreement among ensemble guidance in keeping the trough axis far
enough back to the west to keep high pressure nearby for the start
of next weekend to remain dry.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure and a warm front approach this afternoon, with the
low moving through tonight.
MVFR/IFR conditions as rain continues to move across the area
terminals this afternoon and into tonight. After midnight
ceilings deteriorate to IFR/LIFR then back to MVFR after 20Z
Monday.
NE to ENE winds around 10-12 kt will lower to 5 kt this
evening. Light winds late tonight and then becoming more N and
NW Monday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for lowering flight cats through tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: Rain with LIFR early in the morning, improving to IFR and
eventually MVFR with showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday night-Wednesday: Chance MVFR or lower with -shra. North
winds gusting to around 20kt Wednesday.
Thursday-Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Issued SCA for the ocean E of Moriches Inlet beginning this
afternoon, and from Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet, with
both running through tonight. E flow increasing to 15-20 this
afternoon may gusts to 25 kt at times, but more importantly
build ocean seas to 5-6 ft this afternoon into tonight. Winds
and seas subside by daytime Mon, the minimal SCA cond may be
possible on the ocean waters Mon night as low pressure pulls
away E of New England and high pressure builds into the waters.
Marginal SCA cond are likely on the ocean and perhaps some of
the eastern non-ocean zones on Wed with another low likely
moving just east of the waters. On the back side of the low the
winds will switch to the N-NW and gradually diminish Wed night,
with sub-advy cond across all waters. A large dome of high
pressure building on Thu will settle across the waters on Fri,
leading to a relatively weak pressure gradient and mainly 3 ft
ocean seas for late week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Long duration rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch through Mon afternoon
expected for the interior, with lesser amts of around 1/2 inch
for the NYC metro area, and slightly less than that for Long
Island. Hydrologic impacts not expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will continue to increase into early next
week due to Saturday`s full moon. A Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect into this afternoon for southern Westchester
and Fairfield counties.
Additional minor coastal flooding appears likely for the
morning/early afternoon high tides into at least Tuesday. The
minor coastal flooding should spread into the NY/NJ harbor area
and possibly include more of the southern/eastern shores of
Suffolk County.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
NYZ071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday
for ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...FEB/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...20
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...