000
FXUS61 KOKX 291953
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
353 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal system will continue to impact the area into the day
on Monday. High pressure briefly builds into the region Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a deepening low pressure system will be tracking
northward of the east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday. High
pressure will then build across the region Wednesday night into
next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Periods of rain will continue through tonight as an area of low
pressure approaches the region from the southwest. Rainfall
amounts will remain light, generally under one half inch through
Monday morning.

Temperatures will remain nearly steady or perhaps rise a few
degrees overnight as a warm front tries to approach the region.
Lows will range from the mid 40s across typically cooler
locations across the interior to the mid 50s across the NYC
metro and Long Island.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Rain will continue on Monday morning as the low crosses the
region before tapering off Monday afternoon as the low moves off
to the northeast and its associated cold front pushes offshore.
Highs on Monday will range from the mid 50s inland to around 60
at the coast. In the wake of the front, winds will shift to the
NW, ushering in a cooler air mass for Monday night. With a cold
air advection regime in place, overnight lows will range from
the low to mid 30s across typically colder interior locations to
around 40 elsewhere.

Can`t rule out some frost formation Monday night across the
interior if winds diminish quickly enough.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A nearly full latitude longwave trough will be track through
the eastern United States Tuesday through Wednesday night. The
global guidance is keeping the developing offshore deepening low
a little farther east in response to the progressive upper
trough. And the surface low associated with a strong vort max
rotating into the upper trough will be weakening Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the offshore surface low quickly deepens. While
the global guidance is mostly dry as the offshore low is
farther east, the NBM is keeping probabilities. Have used a
blend of the NBM and global guidance. Otherwise high pressure
will be dominating Wednesday into the upcoming upcoming weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Low pressure and a warm front approach the area through this
afternoon, with the low moving through tonight.

MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail through tonight as rain
continues to move across the area terminals. After midnight
ceilings deteriorate to IFR/LIFR then back to MVFR after 20Z
Monday.

NE to ENE winds around 10-12 kt will lower to 5 kt this
evening. Light winds late tonight and then becoming more N and
NW Monday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for lowering flight cats through tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: Rain with LIFR early in the morning, improving to IFR and
eventually MVFR with showers in the afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: Chance MVFR or lower with -shra. North
winds gusting to around 20kt Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the ocean waters
east of Fire Island Inlet through tonight as seas are expected
to briefly build to 5-6 feet. Seas then subside during the day
on Monday, but marginal SCA conditions could briefly return on
the ocean waters Monday night as winds increase in the wake of
the departing low.

Winds and seas across the forecast waters will be below SCA
levels Tuesday and Tuesday night. With a deepening low moving to
the south and east of the forecast waters Tuesday night through
Wednesday small craft conditions are expected to develop on the
ocean waters Wednesday morning, and continue through Wednesday
night. The eastern ocean zone is most likely to experience SCA
conditions with SCA conditions possible on the Long Island
eastern bays, and maybe the far eastern Long Island Sound.
Thursday through Friday night winds and seas remain below
advisory levels on all the forecast waters.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Light rainfall will continue into the day on Monday, with
additional rainfall amounts generally remaining less than one
half inch.

One tenth to three tenths of an inch of rainfall is possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with around a tenth of an inch
across the lower Hudson Valley, into northeastern New Jersey and
the New York City metro area, and the highest amounts expected
across southeastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island.
Otherwise dry weather is expected Wednesday night into Sunday
morning.

No hydrologic impacts are expected.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides will continue to increase into early next
week and additional minor coastal flooding appears likely during
the morning/early afternoon high tides into at least Tuesday.

With water levels expected to be slightly higher on Monday
compared to what was observed this morning, a Coastal Flood
Advisory is now in effect for Southern Queens/Nassau, Brooklyn,
Staten Island, and portions of northeast New Jersey as well as
southern Fairfield County in Connecticut. Water levels are
expected to exceed minor flood thresholds in these areas with
the Monday morning/early afternoon high tide. In addition,
Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for Manhattan, northern
Queens, the Bronx, and southern Westchester during the same time
period as water levels may approach or just touch minor
flooding benchmarks.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 2 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FEB/MET
NEAR TERM...FEB
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...20
MARINE...FEB/MET
HYDROLOGY...FEB/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...