discussion on 2023-10-29

000
FXUS61 KOKX 292341
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
741 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will continue to impact the area into the day
on Monday. High pressure briefly builds into the region Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a deepening low pressure system will be tracking
northward of the east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday. High
pressure will then build across the region Wednesday night into
next weekend.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast on track, with no significant changes made with the
update.

Periods of rain will continue through tonight as an area of low
pressure approaches the region from the southwest. Rainfall
amounts will remain light, generally under one half inch through
Monday morning.

Temperatures will remain nearly steady or perhaps rise a few
degrees overnight as a warm front tries to approach the region.
Lows will range from the mid 40s across typically cooler
locations across the interior to the mid 50s across the NYC
metro and Long Island.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Rain will continue on Monday morning as the low crosses the
region before tapering off Monday afternoon as the low moves off
to the northeast and its associated cold front pushes offshore.
Highs on Monday will range from the mid 50s inland to around 60
at the coast. In the wake of the front, winds will shift to the
NW, ushering in a cooler air mass for Monday night. With a cold
air advection regime in place, overnight lows will range from
the low to mid 30s across typically colder interior locations to
around 40 elsewhere.

Can`t rule out some frost formation Monday night across the
interior if winds diminish quickly enough.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A nearly full latitude longwave trough will be track through
the eastern United States Tuesday through Wednesday night. The
global guidance is keeping the developing offshore deepening low
a little farther east in response to the progressive upper
trough. And the surface low associated with a strong vort max
rotating into the upper trough will be weakening Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the offshore surface low quickly deepens. While
the global guidance is mostly dry as the offshore low is
farther east, the NBM is keeping probabilities. Have used a
blend of the NBM and global guidance. Otherwise high pressure
will be dominating Wednesday into the upcoming upcoming weekend.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure and a warm front approach the area through this
evening, with the warm front likely remaining south of the
terminals. The low tracks through the region overnight and
through Monday, with high pressure beginning to build to the
west toward 00Z Tuesday.

Uncertainty, with low confidence, with timing, speed, and how
low conditions will lower through this evening, with IFR to LIFR
expected by late tonight. Then through the day Monday
conditions will be improving as the low tracks slowly east of
the terminals, with timing uncertainties continuing.

Northeast winds become light and variable late evening and
into early Monday morning. A west to northwest flow develops
late morning int Monday afternoon with gusts around 20kt
developing during the afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for lowering flight categories, and timing
through tonight. Uncertainty with how quickly conditions
improve Monday morning, and may be later than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR, east of the NYC terminals MVFR with any rain
ending early, then becoming VFR. NW to N winds gusting around
20kt up to 25kt. Gusts diminishing and ending late at night.

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: Chance MVFR or lower with -shra. North
winds gusting to around 20kt Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --No changes to winds and seas at this time.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the ocean waters
east of Fire Island Inlet through tonight as seas are expected
to briefly build to 5-6 feet. Seas then subside during the day
on Monday, but marginal SCA conditions could briefly return on
the ocean waters Monday night as winds increase in the wake of
the departing low.

Winds and seas across the forecast waters will be below SCA
levels Tuesday and Tuesday night. With a deepening low moving to
the south and east of the forecast waters Tuesday night through
Wednesday small craft conditions are expected to develop on the
ocean waters Wednesday morning, and continue through Wednesday
night. The eastern ocean zone is most likely to experience SCA
conditions with SCA conditions possible on the Long Island
eastern bays, and maybe the far eastern Long Island Sound.
Thursday through Friday night winds and seas remain below
advisory levels on all the forecast waters.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
Light rainfall will continue into the day on Monday, with
additional rainfall amounts generally remaining less than one
half inch.

One tenth to three tenths of an inch of rainfall is possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with around a tenth of an inch
across the lower Hudson Valley, into northeastern New Jersey and
the New York City metro area, and the highest amounts expected
across southeastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island.
Otherwise dry weather is expected Wednesday night into Sunday
morning.

No hydrologic impacts are expected.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will continue to increase into early next
week and additional minor coastal flooding appears likely during
the morning/early afternoon high tides into at least Tuesday.

With water levels expected to be slightly higher on Monday
compared to what was observed this morning, a Coastal Flood
Advisory is now in effect for Southern Queens/Nassau, Brooklyn,
Staten Island, and portions of northeast New Jersey as well as
southern Fairfield County in Connecticut. Water levels are
expected to exceed minor flood thresholds in these areas with
the Monday morning/early afternoon high tide. In addition,
Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for Manhattan, northern
Queens, the Bronx, and southern Westchester during the same time
period as water levels may approach or just touch minor
flooding benchmarks.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 2 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for
NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...FEB/MET
NEAR TERM...FEB/MET
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FEB/MET
HYDROLOGY...FEB/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...