000
FXUS61 KOKX 301155
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
755 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will deepen and move overhead today along a
frontal boundary. High pressure then briefly builds in tonight
through Tuesday. A low pressure system deepens offshore and passes
to our south and east on Wednesday. High pressure will then build
across the region Wednesday night into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mainly on track this morning. Temperatures are a
few degrees lower than previously forecast and have adjusted for
the current obs and trends.

A frontal boundary is currently just to our south and lifting
north as a warm front. The boundary likely never makes it
through the area as a wave of low pressure is deepening along it
and will drag it east of the area. This will bring a quick shot
of cold advection later today and overnight.

Widespread light to moderate rain can be seen on radar across
the northeast. Expect this activity to continue through at
least the morning hours and then taper off in the afternoon. No
hydrologic issues are expected and only an additional 0.10 to
0.50 inches is forecast, with the higher amounts across the
northern half of the area.

Given placement on the cool side of the boundary, highs will be
in the mid 50s to low 60s under mostly cloudy skies. There is
some potential for forecast highs to be too warm and some
locations across the interior may not make it out of the low
50s. Blended in some cooler high res guidance as the NBM was
likely too warm.

High pressure starts to build in behind the departing frontal
system overnight. The thinking is that winds weaken and skies
clear quick enough across the Lower Hudson Valley and parts of
western CT for areas of frost to form. Have issued a Frost
Advisory for Orange, Putnam and northern Fairfield Counties.
There is potential for headlines to expand farther south and
east, but it looks like winds will stay up a bit longer across
eastern CT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will be in control on Tuesday leading to mostly
sunny skies. However, given the cold airmass and a light
northerly flow, highs will be in the low 50s. The thinking for
the mid- week offshore low pressure has not changed too much
with latest model guidance. The global guidance is keeping the
developing offshore deepening low a little farther east in
response to the progressive upper trough. And the surface low
associated with a strong vort max rotating into the upper trough
will be weakening Tuesday and Tuesday night as the offshore
surface low quickly deepens. The only part of the area with
likely PoPs current is eastern Long Island. This will likely
continue to trend lower and farther east.

High pressure builds in thereafter.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes to the long term during this update. A quiet
period is expected as high pressure dominates Thursday through
much of the weekend. The next chance of any precip looks to be
later on Sunday as a shortwave and associated surface low
pressure pass to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread IFR/local LIFR cond attm with periods of
rain/drizzle, and mostly light NE-N flow as low pressure
passes to the south, and high pressure remains dammed up just E
of the Appalachians. Improvement to MVFR not expected til late
afternoon.

Cold fropa late this afternoon/early this evening should be
accompanied by one last round of light rain/MVFR cond. Ahead of
the front, winds should back to the W or even SW for a time this
afternoon, shift NW and increase to 10-15G20-25kt, then
diminish late tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD likely for changing flight cat. Timing of improvements this
afternoon is uncertain and may be slow to occur.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: Chance of showers with MVFR or
lower cond. N winds G20kt daytime Wed.

Thursday and Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory on the eastern two ocean zones has been
cancelled as wave heights continue to decrease. However, SCA
conditions are expected again tonight in a cool northeasterly flow.
Wind gusts around 25 kt are expected on the ocean waters for a short
period. On all other waters 25 kt gusts will be more occasional than
frequent.

Winds and seas across the forecast waters will then be below SCA
levels Tuesday and Tuesday night. With a deepening low passing to
the south and east of the forecast waters Tuesday night through
Wednesday small craft conditions are possible on the ocean waters
Wednesday through Wednesday night. The eastern ocean zone is most
likely to experience SCA conditions with SCA conditions possible on
the Long Island eastern bays, and maybe the far eastern Long Island
Sound. Thursday through Friday night winds and seas remain below
advisory levels on all the forecast waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend with only light
rainfall expected today and again mid-week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will continue to increase into early this week,
and additional minor coastal flooding appears likely during the
morning/early afternoon high tides.

With higher water levels today compared to what was observed
yesterday per bias-corrected blend of the NYHOPS central forecast,
ETSS, and ESTOFS, the coastal flood advisory was expanded to include
Westchester due to the nearby Stamford gauge being well above the
minor threshold, and statements were expanded to include S New Haven
and SE Suffolk where water levels should touch minor thresholds at
the New Haven, Shinnecock, and Montauk tidal gauges.

Advisories remain in effect for Southern Queens/Nassau, Brooklyn,
Staten Island, and portions of northeast New Jersey as well as
southern Fairfield County in Connecticut, and Statements for
Manhattan, northern Queens, and the Bronx.

With winds turning offshore by tonight, do not expect the NY/NJ
harbor areas or Jamaica Bay to see additional rounds of flooding.
However, water may be sow to drain out of the Sound and the Great
South Bay, and additional rounds of minor flooding are likely on Tue
for the SW CT coastline and S Nassau, and possibly again on Wed.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for CTZ009.
NY...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067-068.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ074-075-178-
     179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET/JT
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...