000
FXUS61 KOKX 301512
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1112 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area this afternoon and
evening. High pressure then briefly builds in tonight through
Tuesday. A low pressure system deepens offshore and passes to
our south and east on Wednesday. High pressure will then build
across the region Wednesday night into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal wave of low pressure will continue moving across the
region today helping to drag a cold front through in the
afternoon and evening.

A band of rain exists mainly along and north of the frontal
wave. Much of the guidance has this passing to our north with
just some scattered showers possible through the day. The main
area of lift and jet energy supports this activity passing north
before diminishing in the afternoon as the main lift shifts
towards Maine and the Maritimes.

Locally dense fog is also possible across Long Island through
midday. Uncertain if it will continue into the early afternoon.

Given placement on the cool side of the boundary, highs will be
in the mid 50s to low 60s under mostly cloudy skies. There is
some potential for forecast highs to be too warm and some
locations across the interior may not make it out of the low
50s. Blended in some cooler high res guidance as the NBM was
likely too warm.

High pressure starts to build in behind the departing frontal
system overnight. The thinking is that winds weaken and skies
clear quick enough across the Lower Hudson Valley and parts of
western CT for areas of frost to form. Have issued a Frost
Advisory for Orange, Putnam and northern Fairfield Counties.
There is potential for headlines to expand farther south and
east, but it looks like winds will stay up a bit longer across
eastern CT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be in control on Tuesday leading to mostly
sunny skies. However, given the cold airmass and a light
northerly flow, highs will be in the low 50s. The thinking for
the mid- week offshore low pressure has not changed too much
with latest model guidance. The global guidance is keeping the
developing offshore deepening low a little farther east in
response to the progressive upper trough. And the surface low
associated with a strong vort max rotating into the upper trough
will be weakening Tuesday and Tuesday night as the offshore
surface low quickly deepens. The only part of the area with
likely PoPs currently is eastern Long Island. This will likely
continue to trend lower and farther east.

High pressure builds in thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes to the long term during this update. A quiet
period is expected as high pressure dominates Thursday through
much of the weekend. The next chance of any precip looks to be
later on Sunday as a shortwave and associated surface low
pressure pass to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread IFR/local LIFR conds continue through late morning
with patchy light rain or drizzle as low pressure passes nearby.
Locally dense fog at KJFK, KISP, and KHPN could reduce vsbys
to 1/4 mile at times into early afternoon. Improvement to MVFR
not expected til late afternoon at most terminals.

Light northerly flow this morning backs west this afternoon,
shifting NW and increasing to 10-15G20-25kt behind a cold fropa
early this evening, before diminishing tonight. The front could
be accompanied by one last round of light rain/MVFR cond, with
all terminals drying out after 02Z Tue or so. Light northerly
flow thereafter through Tue AM.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD likely for changing flight cat. Timing of improvements this
afternoon is uncertain and may be slow to occur.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: Chance of showers with MVFR or
lower cond. N winds G20kt daytime Wed.

Thursday and Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Locally dense fog is possible on the ocean and Great South Bay
through 17z. The fog could persist a bit longer and the Marine
Weather Statement may need to be extended.

Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels into this
afternoon. SCA conditions are expected again tonight in a cool
northeasterly flow. Wind gusts around 25 kt are expected on the
ocean waters for a short period. On all other waters 25 kt gusts
will be more occasional than frequent.

Winds and seas across the forecast waters will then be below SCA
levels Tuesday and Tuesday night. With a deepening low passing to
the south and east of the forecast waters Tuesday night through
Wednesday small craft conditions are possible on the ocean waters
Wednesday through Wednesday night. The eastern ocean zone is most
likely to experience SCA conditions with SCA conditions possible on
the Long Island eastern bays, and maybe the far eastern Long Island
Sound. Thursday through Friday night winds and seas remain below
advisory levels on all the forecast waters.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Astronomical tides will continue to increase into early this week,
and additional minor coastal flooding appears likely during the
morning/early afternoon high tides.

High tide has passed and water levels are beginning to recede
across the south shore back bays with most spots exceeding minor
benchmarks. Freeport gauge did briefly exceed moderate.
Advisories remain in effect for Southern Queens/Nassau,
Brooklyn, Staten Island, and portions of northeast New Jersey as
well as southern Fairfield County in Connecticut, and
Statements for Manhattan, northern Queens, and the Bronx.

With winds turning offshore by tonight, do not expect the NY/NJ
harbor areas or Jamaica Bay to see additional rounds of flooding.
However, water may be sow to drain out of the Sound and the Great
South Bay, and additional rounds of minor flooding are likely on Tue
for the SW CT coastline and S Nassau, and possibly again on Wed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     CTZ009.
NY...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067-068.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ074-075-178-
     179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...DS/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET/JT
AVIATION...BG/DR
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...