000
FXUS61 KOKX 301737
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
137 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area this afternoon and
evening. High pressure then briefly builds in tonight through
Tuesday. A low pressure system deepens offshore and passes to
our south and east on Wednesday. High pressure will then build
across the region Wednesday night into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A frontal wave of low pressure will continue moving towards the
New England coast, dragging a cold front through this afternoon
and evening.
Overrunning rain band continues to move mainly to our north this
afternoon with some showers possible across the interior. Cannot
rule out some brief showers closer to the coast as well. Areas
of fog are also occurring, but think there should be some
improvement into the afternoon as the low pressure shifts NE and
allows some W-WNW flow to develop behind it. The passage of the
cold front will also help improve conditions later in the
afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.
High pressure starts to build in behind the departing frontal
system overnight. The thinking is that winds weaken and skies
clear quick enough across the Lower Hudson Valley and parts of
western CT for areas of frost to form. Have issued a Frost
Advisory for Orange, Putnam and northern Fairfield Counties.
There is potential for headlines to expand farther south and
east, but it looks like winds will stay up a bit longer across
eastern CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be in control on Tuesday leading to mostly
sunny skies. However, given the cold airmass and a light
northerly flow, highs will be in the low 50s. The thinking for
the mid- week offshore low pressure has not changed too much
with latest model guidance. The global guidance is keeping the
developing offshore deepening low a little farther east in
response to the progressive upper trough. And the surface low
associated with a strong vort max rotating into the upper trough
will be weakening Tuesday and Tuesday night as the offshore
surface low quickly deepens. The only part of the area with
likely PoPs currently is eastern Long Island. This will likely
continue to trend lower and farther east.
High pressure builds in thereafter.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes to the long term during this update. A quiet
period is expected as high pressure dominates Thursday through
much of the weekend. The next chance of any precip looks to be
later on Sunday as a shortwave and associated surface low
pressure pass to our north.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread IFR/local LIFR conds continue this afternoon with
patchy light rain or drizzle as low pressure passes nearby and
drags a cold front through the region. Improvement to MVFR
should begin to occur late this afternoon, becoming VFR by
evening.
Light flow becomes NW this afternoon and increases to
10-15G20-25kt behind the cold fropa early this evening, before
diminishing tonight. The front could be accompanied by one last
round of light rain/MVFR cond, with all terminals drying out
after 02Z Tue or so. Light northerly flow thereafter through Tue
AM, veering NE or E during the day.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
AMD likely for changing flight cat. Timing of improvements this
afternoon is uncertain and may be slow to occur.
Timing of wind shifts/gusts may be off by a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday PM: VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday: Chance of showers with MVFR or
lower cond. N winds G20kt daytime Wed.
Thursday thru Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Locally dense fog is possible on the ocean and Great South Bay
through 17z. The fog could persist a bit longer and the Marine
Weather Statement may need to be extended.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels into this
afternoon. SCA conditions are expected again tonight in a cool
northeasterly flow. Wind gusts around 25 kt are expected on the
ocean waters for a short period. On all other waters 25 kt gusts
will be more occasional than frequent.
Winds and seas across the forecast waters will then be below SCA
levels Tuesday and Tuesday night. With a deepening low passing to
the south and east of the forecast waters Tuesday night through
Wednesday small craft conditions are possible on the ocean waters
Wednesday through Wednesday night. The eastern ocean zone is most
likely to experience SCA conditions with SCA conditions possible on
the Long Island eastern bays, and maybe the far eastern Long Island
Sound. Thursday through Friday night winds and seas remain below
advisory levels on all the forecast waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will continue to increase into early this week,
and additional minor coastal flooding appears likely during the
morning/early afternoon high tides.
High tide has passed and water levels are beginning to recede
across the south shore back bays with most spots exceeding minor
benchmarks. Freeport gauge did briefly exceed moderate.
Advisories remain in effect for Southern Queens/Nassau,
Brooklyn, Staten Island, and portions of northeast New Jersey as
well as southern Fairfield County in Connecticut, and
Statements for Manhattan, northern Queens, and the Bronx.
With winds turning offshore by tonight, do not expect the NY/NJ
harbor areas or Jamaica Bay to see additional rounds of flooding.
However, water may be sow to drain out of the Sound and the Great
South Bay, and additional rounds of minor flooding are likely on Tue
for the SW CT coastline and S Nassau, and possibly again on Wed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
CTZ009.
NY...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067-068.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
NYZ071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...DS/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET/JT
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...