000
FXUS61 KOKX 301939
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
339 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front passes east of the area this evening. High
pressure then briefly builds in tonight through Tuesday. A low
pressure system develops offshore Tuesday night and passes to
our southeast on Wednesday. High pressure builds into the
region Wednesday night and remains through the weekend. A low
passes to the north Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A broad frontal wave of low pressure will continue to shift
off the New England coast through this evening. The associated
cold front will begin moving through the area from NW to SE late
this afternoon and early evening.
Main area of showers is passing to the north and east as
expected north of the low. Some scattered light showers exist
along and behind the front. Some of this activity could quickly
move through the area as the front pushes offshore. Have left in
a slight to low chance PoP this evening, but amounts are
expected to be minimal as the lower levels begin to rapidly dry
out. Mid level clouds likely persist close to the coast tonight,
but should begin clearing inland towards early Tuesday morning.
The most notable sensible weather change will come in the
form of much colder air advecting into the area behind the
front. NW winds increase and become gusty, 20-25 mph, and a few
isolated gusts close to 30 mph near the coast. The strongest
winds will occur before midnight with the winds weakening
through early Tuesday morning. Temperatures will fall into the
middle and upper 30s inland and low 40s near the coast. No
changes were made to the front headlines. Patchy frost remains
possible in Western Passaic, northern Westchester, Rockland, and
northern New Haven, but coverage is not expected to be
widespread enough to warrant an expansion of the Frost Advisory.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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The coldest day of the fall is expected on Tuesday with high
pressure building over the area. Temperatures will struggle to
rise above 50 degrees and highs should be about 10 degrees below
normal. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 40s to around
50 degrees.
Otherwise, surface high pressure builds over the area on
Tuesday and remains over New England Tuesday Night. A positively
tilted and progressive shortwave approaches the eastern
seaboard. Model guidance has continues to come into better
agreement that the associated low pressure will develop far
enough offshore for minimal impacts to the region. The majority
of the precip will stay offshore with a period of rain possible
for the east end of Long Island late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Have trended PoPs down and these may still
need to be brought down further in subsequent forecast cycles.
Temperatures Tuesday night are tricky with some middle and high
clouds over the area. Think temperatures will drop fairly
quickly the first half of the night and could be close to
freezing inland. Held off on mentioning any frost due to the
uncertainty with clouds and dew points. Freeze headlines may be
needed for parts of the interior if the ongoing trends persist.
The low rapidly moves over the Western Atlantic on Wednesday.
However, the potent vort energy and shortwave will lag behind
and pass across the area in the afternoon. This will likely
bring scattered to broken stratocu in the afternoon with a
slight chance for a brief shower in the afternoon. Highs are
once again expected to top out in the upper 40s and around 50
degrees inland.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The long term period will be quiet most of the time as near zonal
upper flow dominates, except for a weak, and weakening, shortwave
moving through the flow passes through the region Saturday into
Saturday evening, with a weak surface cold front. There will be
little moisture, mainly high level, and weak lift, so the upper
wave and frontal boundary come through dry. A more amplified
shortwave moves into the region Monday, with much of the energy
passing to the north. Temperatures will be slightly below normal
Wednesday night into Thursday night with a warm up beginning
late Thursday into the upcoming weekend, with temperatures
returning to above normal Saturday and Sunday. Followed the NBM
through the extended period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Widespread MVFR/IFR conds continue late this afternoon with
patchy light rain or drizzle as a cold front approaches the
region. Slow improvement to MVFR is occurring as of 19Z, and
cigs will continue to rise, becoming VFR by 00Z Tue or so.
Light W or NW flow this afternoon becomes NW at all terminals,
with speeds increasing to 10-15G20-25kt behind the cold fropa
early this evening. Winds lighten tonight and gusts diminish.
The front could bring one last round of light rain showers or
drizzle, with all terminals drying out after midnight. Light
northerly flow Tue AM, veering NE or E during the day.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
AMD likely for changing flight cat. Timing of improvements this
afternoon is uncertain and may be slow to occur.
Timing of wind shifts/gusts may be off by a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday PM: VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday: Chance of showers with MVFR or
lower cond. N winds G20kt daytime Wed.
Thursday thru Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A cold front passes across the waters late this afternoon and
evening. NW winds will increase and become gusty tonight with 25
kt gusts expected for all waters except the Western Sound. Have
issued a SCA for the NY Harbor, LI Bays, and central and eastern
LI Sound until 07z. A SCA remains in effect for the ocean
through 10z. Winds will weaken early Tuesday morning as the
pressure gradient diminishes and high pressure settles over New
England. Seas should remain below 5 ft. Conditions will then
remain below SCA levels Tuesday into Tuesday night. A wave of
low pressure passes east of the waters on Wednesday and some
marginal SCA gusts are possible east of Moriches Inlet.
Winds and seas across the forecast waters remain below SCA
levels Wednesday night through Saturday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Additional minor coastal flooding is possible with Tuesday
morning and early afternoon high tides as astronomical tide
levels remain elevated. Winds will turn offshore tonight, so not
expecting the minor flooding to be as widespread. The South
Shore Back Bays of Queens and Nassau have the highest
probability of seeing minor benchmarks exceeded and have issued
an Advisory for the Tuesday morning high tide. Localized minor
flooding is possible across coastal Fairfield and coastal
Westchester with Tuesday afternoon high tide, and a coastal
flood statement has been issued.
Water levels will continue to subside into the middle of the
week, but localized minor flooding cannot be ruled out across
the South Shore Back Bays.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005.
NY...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067-068.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to noon EDT Tuesday for
NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ331-332-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DS/MET