000
FXUS61 KOKX 310957
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
557 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to briefly build in today. A low pressure
system then develops offshore tonight and passes to our southeast on
Wednesday. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday night and
remains through the weekend. A low will pass to the north on
Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Clouds continue to be slow to clear the area. So far only Orange
county has been able to drop into the mid 30s under clear skies.
Have made adjustments to capture current obs and trends.
The frontal boundary and wave of low pressure that brought rain to
the region on Monday has pushed offshore and will continue to depart
the area. Any lingering light rain is seen offshore on current radar
imagery.
Clouds can be seen on satellite streaming from southwest to
northeast and gradually shifting southeast. Because the clouds
have been slower to leave the area, temperatures are dropping a
bit slower. The Frost Advisory remains in affect for Orange,
Putnam and northern Fairfield and the thinking remains the same
that those zones should still be able to drop low enough to see
areas of frost. However, the other areas that were in question
farther east look like they will remain under cloud cover longer
and in turn be too warm for anything more than patchy frost.
High pressure briefly builds in and takes control today. Although
skies become mostly sunny by late morning, the cold airmass will
result in highs only reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s. This will
be the coolest day of the fall so far.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Complicated temperature forecast tonight. Clouds and winds
increase through the night and even though many zones have
temperatures in the mid 30s or lower, not thinking frost will
be any more than patchy. However, thinking there is enough of a
chance for Orange county to see widespread 32 degrees or lower,
so have issued a Freeze Watch for tonight.
A shortwave trough approaches from the northwest tonight as surface
low pressure deepens and approaches offshore. There has been a
slight trend westward in the latest global guidance, however the
CAMs keep much of the area dry. Some of the global guidance is
also showing more interaction between the shortwave and inverted
surface trough Wednesday morning/afternoon. There is not great
agreement on placement and although this would result in more
rainfall, no impacts are expected. The precip is expected to
fall as rain, but there is a chance that far northern and
western locations can see some snow mix in early Wednesday
morning.
High pressure builds in thereafter and will remain in control
through the rest of the short term with mainly zonal flow aloft.
Wednesday night looks like another frost/freeze night. No
headlines will be issued for the interior zones due to the
growing season ending on 11/1.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft and sfc high pressure should dominate for the
period. A little more troughing later in the period may allow a
frontal boundary to sag closer to the area this weekend, but
overall, after one more cool night Thu night, a warming trend with
temps at least a few degrees above normal expected for the weekend.
Highs Sat/Sun should reach the upper 50s/lower 60s at least, if not
a little warmer on Sunday when some mid/upper 60s can`t be ruled out
for NYC and NE NJ.
The high should start to weaken early next week, with slight
potential for some WAA clouds/showers on Mon and only slightly
cooler temps.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds in today.
NW-N winds 10 kt or less should become NE by late morning/early
afternoon, then may veer E late this afternoon before backing NE
tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight: Mainly VFR, with chance of showers.
Wednesday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower cond, mainly E
of the NYC metros. N winds G20kt.
Thursday through Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
The SCA has been allowed to expire on all non ocean waters and
cancelled on the ocean waters as wind gusts have largely fallen
below 25 kt. An occasional 25 kt gust can not be completely rule
out through 6 AM. Sub-SCA criteria then expected through much of
Wednesday. Wave heights increase to around 5 ft late Wednesday
on the ocean waters and remain elevated through Wednesday night.
Winds gusts are expected to remain just below 25 kt.
Winds and seas across the forecast waters remain below SCA
levels through Saturday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Additional minor coastal flooding is possible with today`s high
tides as astronomical tide levels remain elevated. Winds have
turned offshore, so expecting any minor flooding to be more
marginal than that of yesterday. Statements are in effect for
S Nassau and coastal Fairfield?Westchester.
High tide on Wed may still touch minor thresholds across S
Nassau.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067-068.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
NYZ067.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG