000
FXUS61 KOKX 311412
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1012 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to briefly build in today. A low pressure
system then develops offshore tonight and passes to our southeast on
Wednesday. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday night and
remains through the weekend. A low will pass to the north on
Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The frontal boundary and wave of low pressure that brought rain
to the region on Monday has pushed offshore. Associated cloud
cover is largely south and east of the region, and sunshine
prevails through the day as weak high pressure briefly builds
in. Forecast remains on track.
Although skies become mostly sunny by late morning, the cold
air mass that has advected in behind the fropa will result in
highs only reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s. This will be the
coolest day of the fall so far, and perhaps since late March
for some areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Complicated temperature forecast tonight. Clouds and winds
increase through the night and even though many zones have
temperatures in the mid 30s or lower, not thinking frost will
be any more than patchy. However, thinking there is enough of a
chance for Orange county to see widespread 32 degrees or lower,
so have issued a Freeze Watch for tonight.
A shortwave trough approaches from the northwest tonight as surface
low pressure deepens and approaches offshore. There has been a
slight trend westward in the latest global guidance, however the
CAMs keep much of the area dry. Some of the global guidance is
also showing more interaction between the shortwave and inverted
surface trough Wednesday morning/afternoon. There is not great
agreement on placement and although this would result in more
rainfall, no impacts are expected. The precip is expected to
fall as rain, but there is a chance that far northern and
western locations can see some snow mix in early Wednesday
morning.
High pressure builds in thereafter and will remain in control
through the rest of the short term with mainly zonal flow aloft.
Wednesday night looks like another frost/freeze night. No
headlines will be issued for the interior zones due to the
growing season ending on 11/1.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft and sfc high pressure should dominate for the
period. A little more troughing later in the period may allow a
frontal boundary to sag closer to the area this weekend, but
overall, after one more cool night Thu night, a warming trend with
temps at least a few degrees above normal expected for the weekend.
Highs Sat/Sun should reach the upper 50s/lower 60s at least, if not
a little warmer on Sunday when some mid/upper 60s can`t be ruled out
for NYC and NE NJ.
The high should start to weaken early next week, with slight
potential for some WAA clouds/showers on Mon and only slightly
cooler temps.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure builds in this afternoon.
N winds 10 kt or less should become NE by early afternoon, then
may veer E late this afternoon before backing NE tonight.
BKN VFR cigs should arrive by late afternoon, with some light
rain and a low chance for MVFR cigs well after midnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower cond, especially
E of the NYC metros. Brief rain/snow mix possible KSWF and KBDR
Wed morning. N winds G20kt.
Thursday through Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions expected on all waters today. An occasional
25 kt gust can not be completely ruled out overnight into Wed AM
on the ocean as a frontal system passes through. Wave heights
increase to around 5 ft late Wednesday on the ocean waters and
remain elevated through Wednesday night.
Thereafter, winds and seas across the forecast waters remain
below SCA levels on all waters through Saturday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Additional minor coastal flooding is possible with today`s high
tides as astronomical tide levels remain elevated. Winds have
turned offshore, so expecting any minor flooding to be more
marginal than that of yesterday. Statements are in effect for
S Nassau and coastal Fairfield?Westchester.
High tide on Wed may still touch minor thresholds across S
Nassau.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
NYZ067.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...DR/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...