000
FXUS61 KOKX 011133
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough extending well north and west of an offshore
low will move through the area today. High pressure over the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will then build across the area tonight
into Thursday before moving offshore Thursday evening. High
pressure remains in control through the weekend. A frontal
system may impact the area sometime early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Inverted trough setting up with rain across western LI into SW
CT. Expect this area to expand in coverage, mainly west over the
next couple of hours.
Otherwise, a strong upper trough will move across the area
today, preceded by a weak inverted surface trough that will
generate mainly light rain. The rain will initially develop
across the NYC metro/western LI northward up into the Lower
Hudson Valley and and SW CT. It will need to overcome low-level
dry air, but strong forcing should be sufficient to do so. As
the surface trough works east this morning into this afternoon,
the area of rain will likely shrink as the surface trough
weakens and offshore low pressure takes over east of New
England. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than a quarter
inch, highest across central LI. In addition, as drier, cooler
air filters in from the north this morning, there is a chance
that the rain mixes with a little wet snow well inland. No
accumulation is forecast with temperatures above freezing and
light precipitation.
Much of the rain is over by early afternoon with spotty light
rain lingering into early this evening, mainly for eastern LI
and SE CT. Skies will then clear from west to east this
afternoon into this evening.
After temperatures drop into the upper 30s inland and the lower
to mid 40s this morning, temperatures will be slow to rise
today. Highs will be on average about 10 degrees below normal
and it will feel even colder with damp conditions and north
winds gusting 15 to 20 mph.
Clear skies tonight with diminishing NW winds will allow lows to
drop into the upper 20s inland, to the 30s at the coast. These
readings are also about 10 degrees below normal. A Freeze Watch
remains in effect for coastal CT and portions of NE NJ where
the growing season continues for about another 10 days.
Temperatures are right around freezing and confidence is not
high enough at this time to go to a warning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves across the area on Thursday and offshore by
evening. A weakening NW flow will veer around to the WSW by the
afternoon as the center of the high slides to the south. Highs
on Thursday will remain well below normal in the upper 40s to
around 50.
A light SW flow and warm advection Thursday night will be offset
by radiational cooling. Leaned toward the colder MOS
temperatures with readings around 30 inland and 35 to 40 at the
coast. A few locations at the coast may get below freezing,
especially the Pine Barrens region of LI.
For Friday, a strengthening SW flow will result in a warmer day
with highs falling just short of normal in the mid and upper
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the weekend as mainly zonal
flow persists aloft. The orientation of the high offshore to our
east will result in continued southwesterly flow and a very slight
warming trend through the weekend. Dry conditions and highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s are expected.
Although differences in timing and location, the global models
continue to show the potential for a frontal system to impact the
area sometime early next week. 00z deterministic GFS and ECMWF show
a shortwave passing to the north and associated surface low/bulk of
the precip also passing to the north. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles
show large spread in low location, with the mean being right over
the area. The 00z Canadian on the other hand has a deeper trough and
develops precip out ahead of the main surface low, resulting in more
rain of the area. Given all the uncertainty this far out, the NBM
seemed too high with PoPs so lowered them slightly.
With temperatures at or above normal, there does not appear to be
any frost/freeze concerns at this time in the long term in areas
where the growing season has not ended. Lows will range from the
upper 30s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A trough of low pressure shifts through the region this
morning, followed by high pressure building in during the
afternoon.
The terminals remain VFR this morning, with the possibility of
briefly lowering to MVFR cigs over the next several hours. If
cigs lower to MVFR, a return to VFR is expected earlier than
previously forecast. VFR then expected through the rest of the
TAF period. Widespread light rain will continue early this
morning before shifting east. No vsby restrictions currently
being observed and not expected. Lingering afternoon showers
are possible. Potential for a rain/wet snow mix at KSWF.
Mainly N/NW winds at 10 kt during the morning push while slowly
increasing. NW winds gusting to around 20kt for the afternoon.
Winds lower below 10 kt overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Confidence has decreased in MVFR cigs for this morning. Have
left in TAF mainly in TEMPO groups and for a shorter window.
Amendments may be needed for onset of gusts this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday through Sunday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt Friday afternoon and
evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Marginal SCA conditions will develop across the ocean waters
today with G20-25kt and seas 4 to 5 ft. Sub-SCA conditions
return later tonight as high pressure builds in from the west.
The pressure gradient over the area tightens as high pressure heads
offshore and a return flow sets up Friday night. Winds should
largely stay below 25 kt, but a few occasional gusts up to 25 kt are
possible, mainly on the ocean waters.
Thereafter through the weekend, winds and waves will be below
SCA criteria. SCA conditions could return early next week with
the possibility of a frontal system impacting the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Statement issued for localized minor coastal
flooding across the south shore back bays of Nassau County late
this morning.
The late morning/early high tide cycle will be the last to
bring water levels close to minor coastal flood benchmarks as
offshore winds develop and astronomical tides lower. The best
chance for isolated minor coastal flooding will be across the
south shore back bays of Nassau.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
NYZ071.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
NJZ104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JT/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...