000
FXUS61 KOKX 011626
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1226 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough extending well north and west of an offshore
low will move through the area today. High pressure over the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will then build across the area
tonight into Thursday before moving offshore Thursday evening.
High pressure remains in control through the weekend. A frontal
system may impact the area sometime early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Waterbury/Oxford has changed back to all rain at 16Z with the
precipitation slowly ending from west/northwest to
east/southeast as the inverted trough across the region slowly
weakens and moves east. A strong upper trough also moves
across the area today.
Much of the rain will likely end during the early afternoon
with spotty light rain possibly lingering into early this
evening, mainly for eastern LI and SE CT. Skies will then clear
from west to east this afternoon into this evening.
Highs will be on average about 10 degrees below normal and it
will feel even colder with damp conditions and north winds
gusting 15 to 20 mph.
Clear skies tonight with diminishing NW winds will allow lows to
drop into the upper 20s inland, to the 30s at the coast. These
readings are also about 10 degrees below normal. A Freeze Watch
remains in effect for coastal CT and portions of NE NJ where
the growing season continues for about another 10 days.
Temperatures are right around freezing and confidence is not
high enough at this time to go to a warning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves across the area on Thursday and offshore by
evening. A weakening NW flow will veer around to the WSW by the
afternoon as the center of the high slides to the south. Highs
on Thursday will remain well below normal in the upper 40s to
around 50.
A light SW flow and warm advection Thursday night will be offset
by radiational cooling. Leaned toward the colder MOS
temperatures with readings around 30 inland and 35 to 40 at the
coast. A few locations at the coast may get below freezing,
especially the Pine Barrens region of LI.
For Friday, a strengthening SW flow will result in a warmer day
with highs falling just short of normal in the mid and upper
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the weekend as mainly
zonal flow persists aloft. The orientation of the high offshore
to our east will result in continued southwesterly flow and a
very slight warming trend through the weekend. Dry conditions
and highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected.
Although differences in timing and location, the global models
continue to show the potential for a frontal system to impact
the area sometime early next week. 00z deterministic GFS and
ECMWF show a shortwave passing to the north and associated
surface low/bulk of the precip also passing to the north. The
GFS and ECMWF ensembles show large spread in low location, with
the mean being right over the area. The 00z Canadian on the
other hand has a deeper trough and develops precip out ahead of
the main surface low, resulting in more rain of the area. Given
all the uncertainty this far out, the NBM seemed too high with
PoPs so lowered them slightly.
With temperatures at or above normal, there does not appear to
be any frost/freeze concerns at this time in the long term in
areas where the growing season has not ended. Lows will range
from the upper 30s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A trough of low pressure shifts through the region this
morning, followed by high pressure building in during the
afternoon.
VFR expected through the rest of the TAF period for most
terminals. Outlying coastal terminals (KISP, KHPN, KBDR, KGON)
may be briefly MVFR this morning into the very early afternoon
in any rain. Lingering afternoon showers are possible.
Mainly N/NW winds at 10 kt slowly increasing into the afternoon.
NW winds gusting to around 20kt for the afternoon. Winds lower
below 10 kt overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
While not likely, very brief MVFR conditions remain possible
through 16Z.
Amendments may be needed for onset of gusts this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday through Sunday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt Friday afternoon and
evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Marginal SCA conditions have developed across the ocean waters
with G20-25kt and seas 4 to 6 ft. Sub-SCA conditions return
later tonight as high pressure builds in from the west.
The pressure gradient over the area tightens as high pressure
heads offshore and a return flow sets up Friday night. Winds
should largely stay below 25 kt, but a few occasional gusts up
to 25 kt are possible, mainly on the ocean waters.
Thereafter through the weekend, winds and waves will be below
SCA criteria. SCA conditions could return early next week with
the possibility of a frontal system impacting the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Freeze Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday
morning for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday
morning for NYZ071.
NJ...Freeze Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday
morning for NJZ104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MET/JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JT/DW