discussion on 2023-11-01

000
FXUS61 KOKX 012214
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
614 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area tonight and moves offshore
during Thursday. The offshore high produces fair weather into
Monday. A frontal system sagging into the area may produce some
rain in the Monday night through Wednesday period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --The fcst is on track. High pressure will continue to build into
the region from the west through tonight with cold advection.
This will bring the coldest airmass of the autumn to the region.
As a result, temperatures are expected to fall to freezing
across much of the region. The Freeze Watch was converted to a
Freeze Warning, and expanded to include Suffolk County where
temperatures fall to freezing or just below, and may be across
most of the county.

For the interior zones the Frost-Freeze Program ends today so
no headlines have been issued. A Public Information Statement
(PNSOKX) has been issued to end the program was those zones.

Any remaining sprinkles will be ending by 00Z as a strong vort
max moves offshore, and heights begin to rise.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A near zonal upper flow sets early Thursday and continues
Thursday night as surface high pressure builds over the area
early Thursday and then moves offshore late. The chilly airmass
remains over the area Thursday, with temperatures 5 to 10
degrees below seasonal normals. A weak low level warmup begins
late Thursday as winds shift to southwest and return flow
sets up. Lows Thursday night will be a few degrees highs than
Wednesday night, mainly along the coast, and about the same for
the interior and normally cooler locations. Used a blend of the
GFS and NBM guidance for temperatures Thursday and Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models were in good agreement Fri thru the weekend, with
high pres offshore keeping the area dry and allowing for a
warming trend thru the period. Temperatures should be a few
degrees abv normal for the weekend in this pattern with h85
temps in the 5-8C range and water temps regulating things. SSTs
are still around 60 on the ocean and Sound.

Mon is a bit of a transition day as nrn stream energy drops
down into the generally zonal flow across the country. Likely an
increase in clouds with moisture beginning to focus on the
area, then chances for rain Mon ngt thru Wed with the resultant
frontal sys in the area. The GFS is more aggressive with a
couple of waves generating rain over the area Tue then again
Wed. The ECMWF is significantly drier, only producing a few
shwrs late Mon ngt into Tue. The blended approach using the NBM
seemed reasonable in this scenario, so the output was followed
for the fcst.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A trough of low pressure shifts away from the region with high
pressure building in through tonight.

VFR expected through the rest of the TAF period. Lingering afternoon
showers are possible.

Mainly N/NW winds around 10kt with gusts upwards of 20kt this
afternoon. Winds lower below 10kt overnight. Winds shift to the W
then SW by Thursday afternoon remaining around 10kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed for timing of the ending of gusts this
afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon through Monday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt Friday
afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With a gusty NW flow across the ocean waters this evening gusts
will reach near 25 kts at times across the ocean waters. There
may be a few occasional nearshore gusts near 25 kt early this
evening. In addition, ocean seas across the outer forecast zones
will be marginally at 5 feet into late tonight. Conditions
improve late into the overnight hours as high pressure builds
in from the west. Have continues with the SCA for the ocean
waters tonight, and with the occasional near shore gusts
lasting a couple of hours, have not issued an advisory.
Conditions will remain be,ow advisory levels across the
forecast waters late tonight through Thursday night with high
pressure in control.

Winds and seas will generally remain blw sca lvls Fri-Sun, however,
winds and seas could occasionally approach criteria on the ocean
thru the period due to return flow around an Atlc high. Similar
conditions Mon and Tue, although with a frontal sys approaching,
chances are a bit higher that areas could hit mrgnl sca lvls.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ071-078>081.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     NJZ104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET