discussion on 2023-11-02

000
FXUS61 KOKX 021130
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
730 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic states today will
push offshore by this evening and then slowly proceed east
across the western Atlantic through Saturday. A weak cold front
moves into the Northeast on Saturday, eventually stalling to the
north. High pressure remains in control through Monday. Low
pressure passes to the north Tuesday into Wednesday, dragging a
cold front through the area.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Freeze warning has verified along the coast with most locations
at or below freezing along with some frost. Minor adjustments
were made this update to account for latest obs and trends.

An upper trough departs to the NE today across the Canadian
Maritimes while surface high pressure centered over the Mid
Atlantic states pushes offshore by this evening. Diminishing NW
winds will veer around to the W/SW this afternoon at less than
10 mph. Under full sunshine, highs are only forecast to get up
into the upper 40s to around 50. This is around 10 degrees
below normal.

For tonight, a light SW flow and warm advection will result in a
bit warmer night. However, with decent radiational cooling
interior locations will likely fall below freezing with even
some locations across the Pine Barrens region of LI. No freeze
watches at this time for locations where the growing season has
yet to end. A frost advisory is possible for coastal locations
and portions of NE NJ minus the NYC metro, with lows in the mid
to upper 30s and dew points at or below freezing. This will
be reevaluated through the day. Dew points in the return flow
look to low at this time for a black ice situation across the
interior.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strengthening SW flow on Friday with afternoon gusts of 15 to
20 mph and warm advection will return highs closer to normal
in the mid to upper 50s. Lows Friday night will follow in tandem
and may even be a few degrees above normal.

For Saturday, an upper trough swinging across eastern Canada
will send a cold front into the Northeast that is expected to
stall well north of the forecast area later in the day. Winds
will be light from the W with highs topping out around 60.

In addition, there could be varying amounts of mid level clouds
moving in Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday with
the warm advection.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain centered offshore to our east and in
control through Monday under mostly zonal flow aloft. Persistent
southwesterly flow will continue through at least Sunday night. SSTs
are still around 60 on the ocean and LI Sound so even with the
onshore flow component the area should see high temperatures a few
degrees above normal for early November.

Guidance has come into better agreement with next weeks frontal
system. The GEFS, EPS and CMC ensembles have shifted farther north
with the low center locations from 24 hours ago. This solution is
what the deterministic GFS and ECMWF were showing and are still
showing with the current 11/2 00z runs. In this solution the bulk of
the precip passes to the north. Since it is still 5-6 days away,
went with the NBM for PoPs and lowered slightly. If this trend
continues, would expect PoPs to continue to trend down and not cover
as much time.

The low passes to the north and will drag a cold front through the
area. After the cold frontal passage, there is potential for a weak
low to pass nearby the area at the very end of the long term period.
A shortwave approaches from the west is mainly zonal flow aloft.
This would bring the next chance of rain for the area.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure settles over the area today, before pushing offshore
this evening.

VFR through the TAF period.

Light W/NW winds this morning under 10 kt. The winds shift to
the W during the late morning, then SW by later this afternoon
and evening remaining at 5 to 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No Amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday through Monday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt Friday afternoon
and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
High pressure builds across the waters through tonight with
sub-SCA conditions. The high then departs to the east with a
strengthening SW flow on Friday, increasing to 15 to 20 kt
in the afternoon, with seas on the ocean building to around 4
ft Friday night. Winds and seas then diminish and veer to the W
on Saturday.

Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria Saturday
night through Monday with high pressure in control. A frontal system
will then pass to the north sometime Tuesday into Wednesday and
bring the chance for 25 kt gusts on all waters and 5 ft waves on the
ocean waters.

.HYDROLOGY...
There are not hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ071-078>081.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ104-106-108.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...JT/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JT/DW