000
FXUS61 KOKX 021747
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
147 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic states pushes
offshore by this evening, and then slowly proceeds east across
the western Atlantic through Saturday. A weak cold front moves
into the Northeast on Saturday, eventually stalling to the
north. High pressure remains in control through Monday. Low
pressure passes to the north Tuesday into Wednesday, dragging a
cold front through the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Updated for current conditions. A few cumulus were building over
Long Island and portions of northeastern New Jersey and the
Lower Hudson Valley.
An upper trough departs to the NE today across the Canadian
Maritimes while surface high pressure centered over the Mid
Atlantic states pushes offshore by this evening. Diminishing NW
winds will veer around to the W/SW this afternoon at less than
10 mph. Under full sunshine, highs are only forecast to get up
into the upper 40s to around 50. This is around 10 degrees below
normal.
For tonight, a light SW flow and warm advection will result in a
bit warmer night. However, with decent radiational cooling
interior locations will likely fall below freezing with even
some locations across the Pine Barrens region of LI. No freeze
watches at this time for locations where the growing season has
yet to end. A frost advisory is possible for coastal locations
and portions of NE NJ minus the NYC metro, with lows in the mid
to upper 30s and dew points at or below freezing. This will
be reevaluated through the day. Dew points in the return flow
look to low at this time for a black ice situation across the
interior.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strengthening SW flow on Friday with afternoon gusts of 15 to
20 mph and warm advection will return highs closer to normal in
the mid to upper 50s. Lows Friday night will follow in tandem
and may even be a few degrees above normal.
For Saturday, an upper trough swinging across eastern Canada
will send a cold front into the Northeast that is expected to
stall well north of the forecast area later in the day. Winds
will be light from the W with highs topping out around 60.
In addition, there could be varying amounts of mid level clouds
moving in Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday with
the warm advection.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain centered offshore to our east and in
control through Monday under mostly zonal flow aloft. Persistent
southwesterly flow will continue through at least Sunday night.
SSTs are still around 60 on the ocean and LI Sound so even with
the onshore flow component the area should see high
temperatures a few degrees above normal for early November.
Guidance has come into better agreement with next weeks frontal
system. The GEFS, EPS and CMC ensembles have shifted farther
north with the low center locations from 24 hours ago. This
solution is what the deterministic GFS and ECMWF were showing
and are still showing with the current 11/2 00z runs. In this
solution the bulk of the precip passes to the north. Since it is
still 5-6 days away, went with the NBM for PoPs and lowered
slightly. If this trend continues, would expect PoPs to continue
to trend down and not cover as much time.
The low passes to the north and will drag a cold front through
the area. After the cold frontal passage, there is potential for
a weak low to pass nearby the area at the very end of the long
term period. A shortwave approaches from the west is mainly
zonal flow aloft. This would bring the next chance of rain for
the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the region this afternoon pushes offshore
this evening.
VFR through the TAF period.
Light W-NW winds shift to the W then SW by later this afternoon
and evening remaining at 5 to 10 kt. S-SW winds near 10 kt on
Friday. Gusts possible to 20kt KJFK late in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No Amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18z Friday through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time
High pressure builds across the waters through tonight with
sub-SCA conditions. The high then departs to the east with a
strengthening SW flow on Friday, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in
the afternoon, with seas on the ocean building to around 4 ft
Friday night. Winds and seas then diminish and veer to the W on
Saturday.
Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
Saturday night through Monday with high pressure in control. A
frontal system will then pass to the north sometime Tuesday into
Wednesday and bring the chance for 25 kt gusts on all waters
and 5 ft waves on the ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are not hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MET/JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JT/DW