000
FXUS61 KOKX 022139
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
539 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered along the Mid Atlantic states pushes
offshore by early this evening and remains over the western
Atlantic with a weak cold front stalled north of the region
through Monday. Low pressure passes to the north Tuesday into
Wednesday, dragging a cold front through the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track this evening with just a few minor adjustments
to temperatures/dewpoints to reflect current observations.
Otherwise, a near zonal upper flow continues tonight as surface
high pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast drifts into the
western Atlantic. With a weak southwest to west flow develop
weak warm advection sets up and continues through tonight. Good
radiational cooling will set up with clear skies and winds
decoupling. Outlying areas will see temperatures just about as
low as Wednesday night/Thursday morning, while the NYC metro
area and along the coast will be up to 5 degrees higher.
overall, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal
normals. Frost likely becomes widespread inland, however, with
the growing season now over will not be issuing a frost
advisory. Along the coast areas of frost will develop later
tonight, becoming a little more widespread toward morning as dew
points slowly rise. For these locations where the growing
season remains on-going, with patchy frost and low confidence on
a longer period of areas of frost will not be issuing a frost
advisory.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper zonal flow persists Friday and Friday night with
surface high pressure remaining across the Western Atlantic.
Low level warm advection continues with highs Friday nearing
normal Friday night`s lows a few degrees above normal. Clouds
will be on the increase Friday night, especially across the
northern tier as a shortwave approaches. The increased cloud
cover will keep temperatures from falling quickly Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains nearby the region this weekend.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough will will move through eastern
Canada. A cold front associated with this trough will remain
well north of the region through the weekend. While the weekend
is expected to remain dry, expect a varying mix of sun and
clouds throughout the weekend.
High pressure remains over the region Monday with another dry
day expected. The next frontal system is expected Monday night
into Tuesday as low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes
region passes well north of the area, sending its associated
cold front across the area Tuesday morning. There are some
differences with timing and placement of the low, so will stick
fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast for now. Expecting
just chance POPs through this period. The low and the front move
well off to the east for Wednesday, however some forecast
guidance is hinting at another potential low for Wednesday into
Thursday. So will continue to mention chance POPs for now.
Temperatures will be at or above normal for this time of year
Saturday through Wednesday then fall below normal for Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure pushes offshore this evening.
VFR through the TAF period.
Light W winds shift to the SW by later this afternoon and evening
remaining at 5 to 10 kt. S-SW winds near 10 kt on Friday. Gusts
possible to 20kt KJFK late in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No Amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18z Friday through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
tonight through Monday with high pressure in control. A cold
front will then push across the area waters on Tuesday bring the
chance for 25 kt gusts on all waters and 5 ft waves on the
ocean waters. Conditions are then expected to fall back below
SCA levels sometime Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are not hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET