000
FXUS61 KOKX 030532
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
132 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through Monday. Low
pressure passes to the north Tuesday into Wednesday, dragging a
cold front through the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast on track. Otherwise, a near zonal upper flow continues
tonight as surface high pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast
drifts into the western Atlantic. With a weak southwest to west
flow develop weak warm advection sets up and continues through
tonight. Good radiational cooling has set up with clear skies
and winds decoupling. Outlying areas will see temperatures just
about as low as Wednesday night/Thursday morning, while the NYC
metro area and along the coast will be up to 5 degrees higher.
overall, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal
normals. Frost likely becomes widespread inland, however, with
the growing season now over will not be issuing a frost
advisory. Along the coast areas of frost will develop later
tonight, becoming a little more widespread toward morning as dew
points slowly rise. Where the growing season remains on-going,
have held off on a frost advisory as confidence is low that it
will become widespread.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
An upper zonal flow persists Friday and Friday night with
surface high pressure remaining across the Western Atlantic.
Low level warm advection continues with highs Friday nearing
normal Friday night`s lows a few degrees above normal. Clouds
will be on the increase Friday night, especially across the
northern tier as a shortwave approaches. The increased cloud
cover will keep temperatures from falling quickly Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains nearby the region this weekend.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough will will move through eastern
Canada. A cold front associated with this trough will remain
well north of the region through the weekend. While the weekend
is expected to remain dry, expect a varying mix of sun and
clouds throughout the weekend.
High pressure remains over the region Monday with another dry
day expected. The next frontal system is expected Monday night
into Tuesday as low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes
region passes well north of the area, sending its associated
cold front across the area Tuesday morning. There are some
differences with timing and placement of the low, so will stick
fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast for now. Expecting
just chance POPs through this period. The low and the front move
well off to the east for Wednesday, however some forecast
guidance is hinting at another potential low for Wednesday into
Thursday. So will continue to mention chance POPs for now.
Temperatures will be at or above normal for this time of year
Saturday through Wednesday then fall below normal for Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through the TAF period with high pressure remaining in
control.
A light SW flow is expected overnight at NYC terminals with light
and variable elsewhere. S-SW winds increase today, becoming
around 10 kt by afternoon. Gusts 15-20 kt are forecast at KJFK,
KLGA, and KISP in the afternoon, dimishing in the evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts 15-18 kt possible at KEWR this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Tonight through Monday: VFR
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
tonight through Monday with high pressure in control. A cold
front will then push across the area waters on Tuesday bring the
chance for 25 kt gusts on all waters and 5 ft waves on the
ocean waters. Conditions are then expected to fall back below
SCA levels sometime Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are not hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$