000
FXUS61 KOKX 031329
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
929 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure just offshore will slowly work east across the
western Atlantic through Saturday. A weak cold front moves into
the Northeast on Saturday, eventually stalling to the north and
dissipating. High pressure remains in control through Monday. A
frontal system will then impact the region on Tuesday. Low pressure
may track near the area Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast mainly on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the most recent observations in temperature and dew point.
Adjusted hourlies to account for the trends in each through the
early afternoon. As daytime heating continues, the airmass will
warm up more uniformly.
Otherwise, a nearly zonal upper flow will result in high
pressure just offshore continuing to work slowly out into the
western Atlantic through the start of the weekend. At the same
time, a cold front will work across the Great Lakes. This will
result in a gradually strengthening SW flow and warm advection
today. Gusts of 15 to 20 mph will be possible this afternoon.
Highs under mainly sunny skies will tops out in the mid and
upper 50s, climbing closer to normal for this time of year.
For tonight, a large area of mid and high level clouds across
the mid section of the country will work into the area. This
combined with a SW flow will result in a much warmer night than
recent days. Much of the area will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer
with lows from around 40 inland to the mid and upper 40s along
the coast. This is right around or just above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mild weekend will be on tap but with a decent amount of cloud
cover as Pac energy works quickly across the country. Highs
each day will be in the upper 50s to around 60. This could vary
a bit depending upon the extent of the aforementioned cloud
cover. Lows Saturday night will remain mild generally in the
40s. In addition, winds will generally be light from the WSW
Saturday, becoming more northerly late Saturday night into
Sunday. A cold front works into the Northeast on Saturday,
stalling to the north Saturday night. It appears the boundary
washes out before reaching the area Sunday. A mid level
shortwave trough also works into the area. Conditions at this
time are expected to remain dry with weak lift and dry low
levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models were in good agreement in the extended, so the blended
approach was followed and the NBM generally used.
Dry weather on Mon with high pres still ridging across the area.
Return flow likely sets up late as the axis of the high drifts ewd.
Conditions for deep mixing not ideal. High temps are fcst to remain
in the 50s as a result.
Rain chances Mon ngt and Tue as a front approaches from the west
and passes by late Tue. A warmer day on Tue as the thermal ridge
builds in, then temps drop back down again on Wed behind the fropa.
Chances for rain again Wed and Thu as low pres and the associated
frontal sys passes thru the cwa. There is some timing and placement
uncertainty this far out, thus the long period of pops. Based on
the 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF, the rain may hold off until Wed
ngt, but the uncertainty is too high this far out to manually trim
back pops with this cycle.
Temps may end up being colder than fcst on Thu depending on the rain
and the exact position of the frontal boundary.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period with high pressure remaining in
control.
S-SW winds increase today, becoming around 10 kt by afternoon.
Gusts 15-20 kt are forecast at KJFK, KLGA, and KISP in the
afternoon, dimishing in the evening. Winds veer closer to W Sat
mrng.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts 15-18 kt possible at KEWR this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday through Monday: VFR
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Retreating high pressure offshore and a cold front over the
Great Lakes will allow for a strengthening SW flow today,
increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon, with seas on the
ocean building to around 4 ft tonight. Winds and seas then
diminish and veer to the W on Saturday, becoming northerly
late Saturday night into Sunday.
Winds and seas blw sca lvls on Mon, then quickly ramp up on the
ocean Mon ngt and Tue ahead of a cold front. Marginal sca cond on
the ocean Wed with NW winds and lingering seas. Low pres may produce
sca cond Thu depending on the exact track and timing of the sys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are not hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC/BR
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW