000
FXUS61 KOKX 031951
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Elongated high pressure remains over the area through Saturday.
A weak, dry cold front will sink southward through the area on
Sunday, followed by high pressure from the west Sunday night
into Monday. As low pressure moves across eastern Canada, a warm
front will approach Monday night and lift through on Tuesday,
followed by a cold front Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will
briefly nose down from eastern Canada Tuesday night into
Wednesday, then a series of weak low will move across from
Wednesday night into Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Zonal upper level flow is allowing an elongated high pressure system
to remain over the area through Saturday. To the north, a
weakening cold front approaches the area tonight, eventually
stalling and dissipating. To the south off the East Coast, an
inverted trough attempts to approach the area, though looks to
stop short of brining any showers into the area.
Thus much of tonight should be fairly quiet under a light S/SW flow.
This will aid in brining some additional low level moisture in the
area which will largely prevent temperatures from dropping as cold
as they have been for the last few nights. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the low 40s, though cooler spots for interior area may
drop into the upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The inverted trough to the south attempts to bring a streamer of
moisture and showers into the area but looks to remain too far to
the south to allow for dry conditions into Saturday. Even though
conditions should remain dry, the combination of the approach of the
inverted trough and weakening cold front will likely result in an
increase in cloud cover for the area during much of the day
Saturday. This will keep temperatures from rising much beyond the
middle to upper 50s.
Clouds may persist into Saturday evening and early Sunday morning as
well, though once again conditions are expected to be dry. Lows
temperatures on Saturday night will be generally in the 40s, with
warmer spots closer to NYC and cooler spots closer to 40 for the
interior.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Much of the period will be characterized by active zonal flow across
the lower 48, especially later in the week. A broad upper trough
moving across on Sunday will help send a weak, dry cold front
through, but not before temps on Sunday reach 60-65, with the
warmest temps in NYC and NE NJ. The air mass behind the front will
not be that much cooler, with highs on Mon still reaching the mid
and upper 50s.
A warm frontal approach/passage Mon night/Tue AM will lead to one
very mild day on Tue before a cold front moves through Tue
afternoon. Took warmer of a GFS/ECMWF MOS blend and the NBM 75th
percentile for temps, with highs from the upper 60s in NYC/NE NJ, to
the lower 60s inland. The air mass following this next cold front
will be noticeably cooler, with highs on Wed under high pressure
only reaching the lower/mid 50s.
A series of weak lows then approach to finish the work week. The
first of these should move across from late Wed night into Thu, with
likely PoP for the interior. Some spots well inland could see a
brief wintry mix at the onset as temps Wed night with the departing
high cool off into the mid 30s. Latest ECMWF shows the second of
these lows coming out of the TN valley and passing to the south,
with either the low and/or its parent upper trough bringing chances
for a few showers mainly daytime Fri.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR through the TAF period with high pressure remaining in
control.
SW winds will continue into the evening 10-15kt, gusts up to
17kt for some coastal terminals. Winds relax overnight into
tomorrow WSW below 10kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
None
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday through Monday: VFR
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers Wed. night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Ocean wave heights may build to around 4 feet tonight under a 10-
15kt SW flow, though all waters are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds through the weekend and the day on Monday.
SW flow increasing to 15-20 kt after a warm frontal passage should
help build ocean seas to 5-6 ft from late Mon night into Tue. Winds
shifting NW Tue evening with a cold frontal passage may gust to 25
kt at times on the ocean and maintain 5-6 ft seas Tue night. Seas up
to 5 ft could linger into Wed AM on the outer waters E of Fire
Island Inlet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW