000
FXUS61 KOKX 032241
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
641 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Elongated high pressure will remain over the area through
Saturday. A weak, dry cold front will sink southward through
the area on Sunday, followed by high pressure from the west
Sunday night into Monday. As low pressure moves across eastern
Canada, a warm front will approach Monday night and lift through
on Tuesday, followed by a cold front Tuesday afternoon. High
pressure will briefly nose down from eastern Canada Tuesday
night into Wednesday, then a series of weak lows will move
across from Wednesday night into Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Zonal upper level flow is allowing an elongated high pressure
system to remain over the area through Saturday. To the north,
an approaching cold front will eventually stall and dissipate.
To the south off the East Coast, an inverted trough attempting
to approach should stop short of bringing any showers into
the area.
Thus much of tonight should be fairly quiet under a light S-SW
flow. This will aid in brining some additional low level
moisture in the area which will largely prevent temperatures
from dropping as low as they had the last few nights. Lows
tonight will be mainly in the lower 40s, though cooler interior
spots may drop into the upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The inverted trough to the south attempts to bring a streamer of
moisture and showers into the area but looks to remain too far
to the south to allow for dry conditions into Saturday. Even
though conditions should remain dry, the combination of the
approach of the inverted trough and weakening cold front will
likely result in an increase in cloud cover for the area during
much of the day Saturday. This will keep temperatures from
rising much beyond the middle to upper 50s.
Clouds may persist into Saturday evening and early Sunday
morning as well, though once again conditions are expected to
be dry. Lows temperatures on Saturday night will be generally in
the 40s, with warmer spots closer to NYC and cooler spots
closer to 40 for the interior.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the period will be characterized by active zonal flow across
the lower 48, especially later in the week. A broad upper trough
moving across on Sunday will help send a weak, dry cold front
through, but not before temps on Sunday reach 60-65, with the
warmest temps in NYC and NE NJ. The air mass behind the front will
not be that much cooler, with highs on Mon still reaching the mid
and upper 50s.
A warm frontal approach/passage Mon night/Tue AM will lead to one
very mild day on Tue before a cold front moves through Tue
afternoon. Took warmer of a GFS/ECMWF MOS blend and the NBM 75th
percentile for temps, with highs from the upper 60s in NYC/NE NJ, to
the lower 60s inland. The air mass following this next cold front
will be noticeably cooler, with highs on Wed under high pressure
only reaching the lower/mid 50s.
A series of weak lows then approach to finish the work week. The
first of these should move across from late Wed night into Thu, with
likely PoP for the interior. Some spots well inland could see a
brief wintry mix at the onset as temps Wed night with the departing
high cool off into the mid 30s. Latest ECMWF shows the second of
these lows coming out of the TN valley and passing to the south,
with either the low and/or its parent upper trough bringing chances
for a few showers mainly daytime Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR through the TAF period with high pressure remaining in
control.
S-SW winds will weaken this evening and should fall below 10 kt
through 03z. Some outlying terminals will go light and variable
overnight, with coastal terminals remaining around 5 kt. Winds
veer towards the WSW Saturday morning and then will back to the
SW and S into Saturday afternoon. Wind speeds will remain under
10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind speeds could be a few kt higher at times this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night through Monday: VFR
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Ocean seas could briefly hit 4 ft this evening under a 15-kt SW
flow. Otherwise, all waters should remain below SCA thresholds
through Monday evening.
SW flow increasing to 15-20 kt accompanying/following a warm
frontal passage should help build ocean seas to 5-6 ft from
late Mon night into Tue. Winds shifting NW Tue evening with a
cold frontal passage may gust to 25 kt at times on the ocean and
maintain 5-6 ft seas Tue night. Seas up to 5 ft could linger
into Wed AM on the outer waters E of Fire Island Inlet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW