000
FXUS61 KOKX 041746
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of high pressure will remain over the area through
Monday. Low pressure will track across eastern Canada Monday
night into Tuesday, dragging a cold front through the area
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will briefly nose down from
eastern Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, then a series of
weak lows will move across from Wednesday night into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast remains mostly on track. Adjusted high temps in a
few spots upward slightly based on trends.
High pres extended from the Atlc to the sern CONUS this mrng. A
swly return flow will continue today. However, low pres, albeit
weak, will develop off of the Carolinas, altering the pres
field and limiting any aftn strengthening of local winds.
Modeled mid and high clouds appear to be on track per the latest
stlt pics, bkn-ovc at times today filtering the sunshine. The
NBM was followed for temps with highs in the upr 50s to around
60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
No rain tngt but mid and high clouds still around limiting the
radiational cooling potential. Stuck with the NBM for temps as
a result. Light winds become nwly towards mrng as they respond
to the offshore low. NW winds increase a bit on Sun with breezy
wx right along the shore by aftn. Still no rain. Expecting a
break in the mid cloud deck attm per the modeling as the band of
Pacific moisture is shunted swd. This should translate into
highs a little warmer Sun and lows a little cooler Sun ngt.
Thickening clouds by Mon aftn ahead of the next sys, but still
dry wx for the day. Winds come around to the S and draw a little
llvl moisture into the area by sunset. Went with the NBM with
local adjustments for temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A nearly zonal flow across the country will send a fast moving
frontal system through the Northeast Monday night into Tuesday. The
associated warm front and best thermal forcing bypasses the area to
the north and west Monday night, followed by a cold frontal passage
Tuesday afternoon. Due to limited moisture and weak forcing, not
expecting anything more that a few passing showers during this time
with light if any rainfall.
Ahead of the front a strengthening low-level southerly jet will
bring a surge of warm air northward along with a gusty southerly
flow Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the cold front. In addition,
this will allow for highs to get into the 60s Tuesday and perhaps
even around 70 across the NYC metro. This will be short-lived though
with a shot of cold air to follow with temperatures dropping to
several degrees degrees below normal on Wednesday.
Thereafter, there remains some uncertainty as a series of frontal
waves will traverse the front which stalls across the Mid Atlantic.
The first wave is forecast to bring a bout of rain to the area late
Wednesday into Thursday. There is some uncertainty with the
magnitude of these waves and whether the area remains on the cold
side of the frontal boundary. For the time, have stayed close to a
consensus approach using the NBM for winds and temperatures during
this time. Expect fluctuations in the forecast with temperatures and
rain chances for the second half of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains just offshore while a cold front moves
across northern NY state and northern New England this evening.
The weak front eventually works through the area Sunday.
VFR through the TAF period.
Light SSW winds at less than 10 kt into this evening. For
tonight, winds will either become light and variable or veer to
the WNW at less than 5 kt. Winds gradually veer through
tomorrow becoming NNW/N 5-10 kt by the afternoon from a weak
cold frontal passage.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments unlikely this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday through Monday: VFR
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers. SW 10-15 kt, G 20-25
kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in rain late.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR in rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls thru Mon due
to high pres in the region. A strengthening S/SW flow Monday
night into Tuesday ahead of a cold front will bring the
potential for G25-30kt, highest on the ocean with seas building
above 5 ft. Winds shifting WNW Tuesday afternoon behind the cold
front will result in lingering SCA conditions Tuesday night.
High pressure then briefly follows for mid week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW