000
FXUS61 KOKX 042202
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
602 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of high pressure will remain over the area through
Monday. Low pressure will track across eastern Canada Monday
night into Tuesday, dragging a cold front through the area
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will briefly nose down from
eastern Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, then a series of
weak lows will move across from Wednesday night into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes to the forecast. Only minor adjustments
to account for the most recent observations.
High pressure will be at the surface while a weak mid level
shortwave shifts through. Lift with this will be stronger north of
the city, and there could be just enough moisture around for a
sprinkle in spots here. The sub-cloud layer looks to be on the dry
side, so should any rainfall occur, it would likely be limited to
non-measurable sprinkles. As for low temperatures, uncertainty with
the cloud cover amount limits confidence in good radiational cooling
conditions. Have hedged by blending in the 25th percentile NBM with
deterministic NBM in spots that are typically more prone to
radiational cooling. Low temps probably too warm for anything more
than isolated frost.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in place with a weak trough axis at 500mb
passing through. Doesn`t look like enough moisture will be in place
to work with the lift, so will go with a dry forecast through the
day. Temperatures aloft will however fall in response to the trough,
but with an offshore flow, deeper mixing and fewer clouds than
today, high temperatures for Sunday will still manage to end up a
little warmer than today.
Dry weather continues through Sunday night. For now, have left out
the mention of frost across the northernmost zones, as there could
be enough mid to high level clouds to preclude its formation late at
night. If confidence in a mostly clear sky and decoupling winds
increase, may then need to add frost for this area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much of the long term period remains consistent with the previous
forecast. A nearly zonal flow across the country will send a fast
moving frontal system through the Northeast Monday night into
Tuesday. The associated warm front and best thermal forcing bypasses
the area to the north and west Monday night, followed by a cold
frontal passage Tuesday afternoon. Due to limited moisture and weak
forcing, not expecting anything more than a few passing showers
during this time with light if any rainfall.
Ahead of the front a strengthening low-level southerly jet will
bring a surge of warm air northward along with a gusty southerly
flow Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the cold front. In addition,
this will allow for highs to get into the 60s Tuesday and perhaps
even nearing 70 across the NYC metro. This will be short-lived
though with a shot of cold air to follow with temperatures dropping
to several degrees below normal on Wednesday.
A weak brief high pressure system then moves into the area on
Wednesday. Thereafter, there remains some uncertainty as a series of
frontal waves will traverse the front which stalls across the Mid
Atlantic. The first wave is forecast to bring a bout of rain to the
area late Wednesday into Thursday. There is some uncertainty with
the magnitude of these waves and whether the area remains on the
cold side of the frontal boundary. For the time, have stayed close
to a consensus approach using the NBM for winds and temperatures
during this time. Beyond this initial system, global models vary as
to how any following frontal waves impact the region through Friday
and into the weekend. At a minimum, a chance of rain is possible
through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains just offshore while a cold front moves
across northern NY state and northern New England this evening.
The weak front eventually works through the area Sunday.
VFR through the TAF period.
Light SSW winds at less than 10 kt into this evening. For
tonight, winds will either become light and variable or veer to
the WNW at less than 5 kt. Winds gradually veer through
tomorrow becoming NNW/N 5-10 kt by the afternoon from a weak
cold frontal passage.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments unlikely this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday through Monday: VFR
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers. SW 10-15 kt, G 20-25
kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in rain late.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR in rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory criteria
thresholds through Monday with high pressure in the region. A
strengthening S/SW flow Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a
cold front will bring the potential for G25-30kt, highest on the
ocean with seas building above 5 ft. Winds shifting WNW Tuesday
afternoon behind the cold front will result in lingering SCA
conditions Tuesday night. High pressure then briefly follows for
mid week with additional SCA conditions possible late week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/MW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW