000
FXUS61 KOKX 050524
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
124 AM EDT Sun Nov 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of high pressure will remain over the area through
Monday. Low pressure will track across eastern Canada Monday
night into Tuesday, dragging a cold front through the area
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will briefly nose down from
eastern Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, then a series of
weak lows will move across from Wednesday night into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Temperatures have been a bit slower to drop given the cloud
cover over the area now. Only brought low temperatures up one
degree, but if this trend continues the current forecast lows
may be too cold. Very light returns can be seen on radar, but
the 00z OKX sounding confirms the sub-cloud layer is quite dry.
Kept wording of sprinkles in the forecast.
The previous discussion follows. High pressure will be at the
surface while a weak mid level shortwave shifts through. Lift
with this will be stronger north of the city, and there could be
just enough moisture around for a sprinkle in spots here. The
sub- cloud layer looks to be on the dry side, so should any
rainfall occur, it would likely be limited to non-measurable
sprinkles. As for low temperatures, uncertainty with the cloud
cover amount limits confidence in good radiational cooling
conditions. Have hedged by blending in the 25th percentile NBM
with deterministic NBM in spots that are typically more prone to
radiational cooling. Low temps probably too warm for anything
more than isolated frost.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in place with a weak trough axis at 500mb
passing through. Doesn`t look like enough moisture will be in place
to work with the lift, so will go with a dry forecast through the
day. Temperatures aloft will however fall in response to the trough,
but with an offshore flow, deeper mixing and fewer clouds than
today, high temperatures for Sunday will still manage to end up a
little warmer than today.
Dry weather continues through Sunday night. For now, have left out
the mention of frost across the northernmost zones, as there could
be enough mid to high level clouds to preclude its formation late at
night. If confidence in a mostly clear sky and decoupling winds
increase, may then need to add frost for this area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much of the long term period remains consistent with the previous
forecast. A nearly zonal flow across the country will send a fast
moving frontal system through the Northeast Monday night into
Tuesday. The associated warm front and best thermal forcing bypasses
the area to the north and west Monday night, followed by a cold
frontal passage Tuesday afternoon. Due to limited moisture and weak
forcing, not expecting anything more than a few passing showers
during this time with light if any rainfall.
Ahead of the front a strengthening low-level southerly jet will
bring a surge of warm air northward along with a gusty southerly
flow Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the cold front. In addition,
this will allow for highs to get into the 60s Tuesday and perhaps
even nearing 70 across the NYC metro. This will be short-lived
though with a shot of cold air to follow with temperatures dropping
to several degrees below normal on Wednesday.
A weak brief high pressure system then moves into the area on
Wednesday. Thereafter, there remains some uncertainty as a series of
frontal waves will traverse the front which stalls across the Mid
Atlantic. The first wave is forecast to bring a bout of rain to the
area late Wednesday into Thursday. There is some uncertainty with
the magnitude of these waves and whether the area remains on the
cold side of the frontal boundary. For the time, have stayed close
to a consensus approach using the NBM for winds and temperatures
during this time. Beyond this initial system, global models vary as
to how any following frontal waves impact the region through Friday
and into the weekend. At a minimum, a chance of rain is possible
through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through the TAF period. A weak
cold front passes through the area on Sunday.
VFR. A light shower or sprinkle is possible through about 07z
at KSWF and KHPN. A sprinkle can`t be ruled out elsewhere the
next few hours either. Regardless, little if any impact at the
terminals.
For winds overnight, winds will either be light and variable
Tonight or veer to the WNW at less than 5 kt. Winds gradually
veer through Sunday, becoming NNW/N 5-10 kt by the afternoon
with a weak cold frontal passage.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments unlikely.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR
Monday Night through Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers. SW
10-15 kt, G 20-25 kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in rain late.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR in rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory criteria
thresholds through Monday with high pressure in the region. A
strengthening S/SW flow Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a
cold front will bring the potential for G25-30kt, highest on the
ocean with seas building above 5 ft. Winds shifting WNW Tuesday
afternoon behind the cold front will result in lingering SCA
conditions Tuesday night. High pressure then briefly follows for
mid week with additional SCA conditions possible late week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/JT/MW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW