000
FXUS61 KOKX 051742
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1242 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to begin the week will give way to a frontal
system on Tuesday. High pressure will briefly nose down from
eastern Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday. A frontal system
will then impact the area Wednesday night into Friday, followed
by high pressure next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to
dewpoints in this update to align better with current
observations and trends.
The models, supported by the current stlt, are more aggressive
with the cloud cover than they were 24 hours ago, so went with a
blend of the NAM/GFS for clouds today which is much higher than
the NBM. NW flow should allow for better mixing, therefore the
NBM was accepted for temps.
Although the mid lvls dry out late this aftn and tngt, high clouds
over the nrn Plains will begin to overspread the area. This will be
a slight limiting factor for overnight lows, with temps expected to
stay abv freezing attm except for perhaps extreme nwrn Orange
county.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front passes N of the area on Mon. Some increasing clouds by
aftn, but rainfall is modeled to remain across nrn NY into cntrl/nrn
New England.
There are chances for a few shwrs Mon night into early Tue, but
moisture is limited and there is no instability. The models have
backed off on qpf as a result. POPs in the 20-40 range per the NBM
which seems reasonable, with the best chances Mon ngt.
H85 temps approach 10C on Tue, so mild temps can be expected. The
NBM was followed at this point which yields mid to upr 60s, but if
the thermal ridging in the GFS verifies, there could easily be some
low 70s, especially NJ into NYC. Otherwise, a breezy SW flow can be
expected, particularly at the LI and CT coasts.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The biggest change in the last 24h is that 00Z GFS and its ensemble
supports a deeper low lifting through the Great Lakes Wednesday
night into Thursday, with the area even getting into the warm sector
before a cold frontal passage Thursday night into Friday. The NBM
follows in suit with the wind fields, however, it still maintains
rain chances through Friday. The latter of which is more in line
with a stalled boundary and waves of low pressure as was the
thinking 24h ago. In another words, there is a disconnect with a
decent cold frontal passage yet maintaining the rain chances. This
also implies there still is a fair amount of uncertainty in the
forecast during this time. The 00Z ECMWF is evidence of this as it
still keeps the front and a frontal wave near the area Thursday with
another frontal wave passing just south on Friday. It has a much
weaker system to the north of the Great Lakes Thursday night, thus a
flatter, more zonal flow. This keep the area on the north side of
the front. However, there is better agreement of the globals with a
dry forecast and cool down for the weekend.
So for the time, expect high pressure to briefly build across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday with a cool down to slightly below
normal temperatures. There will be a chance of rain from Wednesday
night into Friday based on the previously discussed uncertainty with
the frontal system at the end of the week. Temperatures warm some
Thursday into Friday before cooling down over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through the TAF period.
VFR.
NNW winds 5-10 kt for the afternoon, gradually veering to the
NE by the end of the Monday morning push. Winds eventually
shifting ESE-SE Monday afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday aftn: VFR
Monday Night through Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of
showers Monday night. SW 10-15 kt, G20 kt, becoming WNW Tuesday
night.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in rain at night.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain. S-SE winds G15-20kt.
Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain, mainly in the
afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and and seas will remain blw sca lvls thru Mon. Increasing
winds could reach sca lvls by late Mon ngt, continuing into Tue,
especially on the ocean. Building seas may reach 5-6 ft on the ocean
as well. SCA conditions likely linger on the ocean Tuesday
night. High pressure then briefly follows for mid week with
additional SCA conditions possible late week as a frontal system
impacts the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/BR
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW