000
FXUS61 KOKX 052245
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
545 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to begin the week will give way to a frontal
system on Tuesday. High pressure briefly builds into the area
on Wednesday. A series of frontal systems then impacts the area
Wednesday night through Friday. High pressure builds in for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast on track with only minor adjustments to account for the
most recent observations in temperature and dew point.
A weak cold front has moved through the area which has lead to light
northwest flow and drier air filtering in. Not much moisture is in
place, so no precip is expected for the rest of the evening into
tonight.
General surface high pressure over the eastern US with weak
mid/upper-level ridging that is mostly zonal flow takes over
tonight. Most remaining cloud cover should clear out, leaving
tonight clear to mostly clear. Winds be about 5-10 mph from the
northwest with lows along the coast around 40 and lows in the mid-
30s for the interior. The NYC Metro will be in the mid-40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A north/northwest flow will persist Monday morning and early
afternoon, keeping temperatures cooler with highs in the
mid/low- 50s. A warm from will move north of the area later in
the day and into the evening on Monday which will turn winds
back from the south and increase cloud cover. This will also
raise dewpoints at the surface.
There are chances for a few showers Monday night into early Tuesday
extending from a frontal system that will pass to our north.
Dewpoint depressions will be low at the surface thanks to the warm
front, but model soundings indicate a significant layer of dry air
still persisting from 850mb to 600mb. This dry layer is more
pronounced for southern portions of the area, and less so for
northern portions of the area. Showers that occur with this frontal
system will likely be very light because of this dry layer of air,
with measurable precip more unlikely for southern portions of the
area. Have gone with 30-40% POPs for northern areas and 10-20% POPs
for southern areas.
850mb temperatures on the southern back side of the frontal system
increase to 8-10C per the latest model guidance. This is about a 5-
7C anomaly. Expect some of this to translate to milder
temperatures at the surface with Tuesday highs 10-15 degrees
warmer that Monday`s highs. Mid level ridging sets up shortly
after 850mb temperatures increase. Highs are expected to be in
the mid/upper-60s.
A strong SW/WSW flow will develop Monday night into Tuesday due to
an increasing pressure gradient from the frontal system passing to
the north. This flow will be strongest along LI and CT coastline.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term is dominated by a zonal mid and upper level flow. This
will result in fairly transient surface features over the next week.
Behind a cold frontal passage on Tuesday afternoon and evening, a
surface high pressure system noses down out of Canada and moves over
the area for much of the day Wednesday. A mainly N/NW component to
the wind will result in high temperatures in the upper 40s to low
50s, about or slightly below average for this time of year. Clouds
begin to increase during the afternoon on Wednesday as the next
frontal system approaches from the west.
There is some uncertainty as to how to frontal system tracks as it
moves over the area. The most significant forcing for ascent appears
to move north of the area with the surface low possibly redeveloping
near the coast as it progresses eastward. The exact positioning of
the surface low will determine surface temperatures and if the warm
front is able to move through. At this time, kept a chance of
showers over the area Wednesday night through Thursday to account
for the uncertainty. While not likely, if the northern portions of
the area remain on the cooler side of the frontal system as it
passes by, a few flakes mixing in with some light rain showers isn`t
out of the question for the extreme northern portions of the area.
Beyond Thursday, global models have difficulty coming to a consensus
on how the next frontal system develops and tracks. Either way, a
chance of rain remains possible through the end of the week as
disturbances traverse the area to just to the south. High pressure
is then expected to build into the area for next weekend with a
general cooling trend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the TAF period.
VFR.
NNW winds 5-10 kt for the afternoon, gradually veering to the
NE by the end of the Monday morning push. Winds eventually
shifting ESE-SE Monday afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday aftn: VFR
Monday Night through Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of
showers Monday night. SW 10-15 kt, G20 kt, becoming WNW Tuesday
night.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in rain at night.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain. S-SE winds G15-20kt.
Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain, mainly in the
afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Monday.
Starting Monday night wind gusts will approach 20kt over the
sound and bays with ocean water seeing 25kt wind gusts overnight
Monday and early Tuesday morning, before gradually relaxing.
Wave heights over the ocean will also climb to 5-6 ft overnight
Monday into midday Tuesday. After 15Z, waves should drop below
SCA criteria.
SCA or near-SCA conditions are possible on the waters Tuesday night
behind a cold frontal passage with winds near 25 kt. Ocean waves
will also be near 5 ft before gradually subsiding into Wednesday. By
Wednesday morning, conditions drop below SCA for all waters as high
pressure moves in. Winds and waves may build to near SCA criteria on
Thursday as the area is impacted by a frontal system.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...BR/MW
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW