000
FXUS61 KOKX 061810
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
110 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England moves offshore in the afternoon.
A warm front lifts north of the area tonight and will be
followed by a cold front passage late Tuesday. High pressure
briefly builds into the area on Wednesday. A series of frontal
systems then impact the area Wednesday night through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast continues to be on track this afternoon.
The flow over the CONUS will remain progressive to start the
week. Brief zonal flow aloft today will give way to an
approaching shortwave tonight. High pressure at the surface over
New England shifts offshore this afternoon. There will be
varying levels of cloudiness through the day as mid high level
moisture is transported through the zonal flow. Skies become
increasingly cloudy through the afternoon. Highs will be close
to normal in the lower to middle 50s, coolest inland.
Clouds will continue to lower and thicken tonight ahead of the
approaching shortwave. Associated with the shortwave will be a
low pressure that tracks from the Great Lakes through southeast
Canada tonight. This will help push a warm front through the
region. There is a general agreement among the global models
and CAMs for a fast moving band of showers to accompany the warm
front, mainly after midnight. The higher probabilities for
showers exist across the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern
Connecticut, which end up closer to more organized lift to our
north. A few showers cannot be ruled out closer to the NYC
metro and Long Island, but probabilities are lower and generally
around 20 percent. The showers will be quick moving with light
amounts expected. Lows will be above normal in the 40s inland
and around 50 degrees near the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The low pressure will continue tracking towards the Maritimes
on Tuesday with the warm front well to our northeast. This will
set the stage for a warm day with a breezy WSW-SW flow over the
region. Lingering morning clouds should give way to mostly
sunny conditions in the afternoon. There should be some wind
gusts around 20 mph in the afternoon as well. The trailing cold
front passes through the region, possibly as early as late
afternoon inland, but largely during the early evening hours.
Winds will shift to the NW behind the front. No precipitation is
expected with the cold front as the atmosphere is dry during
its passage. Highs are forecast to reach the middle 60s for most
locations with potential the NYC metro and urban NE NJ reach
the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Much cooler and drier air will work its way into the area
Tuesday night. The shortwave that passes across Tuesday
amplifies as it pushes towards the Maritimes. Behind the system
will be rising heights and a surface high that ridges down over
the northeast from eastern Canada. NW winds should stay up
preventing ideal radiational cooling conditions, but cold
advection will bring temperatures in the upper 30s inland and
lower 40s most elsewhere.
High pressure will then remain in control on Wednesday at the
surface and aloft. The upper ridge axis should remain just to
our west during the day, but some high clouds could still move
overhead in the afternoon ahead of the next shortwave over the
Northern Plains. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees
below normal in the upper 40s to low 50s, coolest inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The models were not in complete agreement in the extended, so the
blended approach via the NBM was used for the fcst.
A warm front approaches and likely passes thru the cwa Wed ngt
into early Thu. This would put the area in the warm sector on
Thu with temps warming up. There is some uncertainty however,
with the ECMWF suggesting the front will hang up invof the cwa,
keeping more clouds and rain in the area as well as lower temps.
There is always the potential the warm front doesn`t even make
it to the region. If the front does clear the cwa, clouds and
mixing will be the key with both models suggesting lower 70s
potential based on h85 temps if mixing is deep enough. The low
and/or associated cold front are progged to pass thru late Thu
aftn into the early eve. The GFS is the slower of the two solns.
Rain chances will be better if the low stays closer to the srn
envelop of solns and passes thru or S of the area. Brief drying
behind the sys, then the next potential sys approaches from the
OH Valley Fri and Sat. The ECMWF keeps the frontal zone and
associated pcpn suppressed to the S, whereas the GFS is further
N with rain impacts at least Fri across the area. Still far out
with this sys, so no change from the NBM POPs.
A colder airmass builds in for Sat, with sub-freezing temps
possible Sat ngt. Remaining cooler on Sun, with highs likely
not getting out of the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure departs with a warm front approaching from the
west. This front moves across late tonight with a cold front
moving in for Tuesday.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period. There
are forecast to be some rain showers moving in late tonight into
Tuesday morning, with greatest probabilities for MVFR across
KSWF. Rain showers are expected to be mostly light, so the MVFR
would be more for ceilings as opposed to visibilities. Not all
terminals south of KSWF are expected to receive showers.
Winds will be variable initially this afternoon but eventually
will be all southerly near 5-10 kt. The southern 5-10 kt flow
continues into this evening and then the winds become more SW
overnight into Tuesday morning and increase to 10-15 kt. Some
gusts near 20 kt will also develop late tonight into early
Tuesday. Wind direction becomes more westerly going into Tuesday
afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertain on timing of rain showers, could be off by 1-3 hours
compared to TAF. Low chance of MVFR. Timing gusts could be off
by a few hours compared to TAF as well.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday afternoon: Mainly VFR. WSW-W winds near 15 kt with
gusts around 25 kt, becoming NW late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in rain at night.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain. S-SE winds G15-20kt.
Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain, mainly in the afternoon.
Saturday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through this evening.
A warm front will move across the waters tonight. This will
help increase wind gusts to SCA levels, specifically on the
ocean. Wind gusts to around 25 kt are likely to continue into
Tuesday morning on the ocean, before gradually diminishing. SCA
gusts could last east of Moriches Inlet through the afternoon.
Ocean seas will also build to 5-6 ft late tonight into Tuesday,
especially east of Fire Island Inlet. An SCA has been issued on
the ocean west of Fire Island Inlet from 1 am Tuesday until 1 pm
Tuesday and from 1 am Tuesday until 6 pm Tuesday east of Fire
Island Inlet. There is a chance it may need to be extended east
of Moriches Inlet if seas remain around 5 ft Tuesday night.
Winds and seas should then be below SCA levels on Wednesday.
Winds are likely to remain blw sca lvls Thu and Fri. Seas may
approach 5 ft on the ocean Thu ngt into Fri however. Winds and
seas increase on Sat with strengthening nwly flow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS