000
FXUS61 KOKX 062344
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
644 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches tonight and lifts through the area
late tonight into early Tuesday morning. A cold front moves
through late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. High
pressure briefly builds into the area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday, followed by low pressure passing through on Thursday.
Weak high pressure on Friday then strengthens over the region
this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mostly on track. No major changes with this
update.
A weak, low amplitude, shortwave will be tracking rather
quickly eastward tonight from the eastern Great lakes as a deep
upper low moves through southern Canada. Much of the energy with
the shortwave will be moving to the north, or across the
extreme northern portion of the forecast area. Also, a warm
front will be moving into the region from the southwest, and
with increased lift with the strengthening frontal boundary,
precipitation will become likely late tonight across the
northern tier, with chances to low chances of precipitation
farther to the south. The global guidance, NBM, and CAMS were
all in good agreement with the areal coverage of the higher
chances of precipitation. With little moisture at most around a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is expected to the north. So, will
be a high probabilities, low precipitation event. With increased
cloud cover, and warm advection overnight, have leaned toward
the higher GFS guidance for overnight low temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The low amplitude shortwave will be exiting to the east early
Tuesday morning with any continuing precipitation coming to an
end around 14Z. Skies will be clearing as zonal flow sets up. At
the surface winds will be westerly and gusty as mixing
increasing to 850mb. High temperatures will be approaching
around 10 degrees above seasonal normals, and once again leaned
toward the warmer GFS guidance.
A building ridge approaches to the west through Tuesday night as
surface high pressure builds into the region from the north.
Diminishing winds, especially late overnight, and mostly clear
conditions will allow for temperatures to fall more quickly
late, reaching to near normal levels by Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds at the surface and aloft on Wednesday with
mostly sunny conditions and high temperatures a few degrees below
normal. Although ridging occurs aloft into Thursday morning,
overrunning moisture ahead of an approaching warm front will bring a
chance of light rain starting Wednesday night. Light rain then
remains possible through Thursday night as the associated low
pressure system shifts through.
The flow aloft remains mostly zonal Friday through at least the
weekend, and possibly into Monday. At the surface, high pressure
dominates, but a weak cold front passes through sometime Saturday
into Saturday night. Moisture is lacking with this front, so will go
with a dry forecast for this weekend and Monday. Left in a slight
chance of rain for Friday and Friday night however, as moisture
lingers north of a sagging cold front associated with Thursday`s
system.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure departs with a warm front approaching from the
west. This front moves across late tonight with a cold front
moving through Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period. There are
forecast to be some rain showers moving across late tonight into
Tuesday morning, with greatest probabilities for MVFR across KSWF.
Rain showers are expected to be mostly light, so the MVFR would be
more for ceilings as opposed to visibilities. Showers may very well
miss some of the terminals south of KSWF.
Winds will be generally southerly near 5-10 kt. Winds become
more SW overnight into Tuesday morning and increase to 10-15 kt.
Some gusts near 20 kt will also develop late tonight into early
Tuesday. Wind direction becomes more westerly Tuesday
afternoon. Gusts max out Tuesday afternoon/evening around 25 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance of MVFR and low chance of rain showers. Timing of wind
gusts could be off by a few hours compared to TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR with subsiding gusts.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in rain at night.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in rain during the
day. Slight chance of MVFR or lower in rain at night.
Friday: Slight chance of MVFR or lower in rain, mainly in the
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A southerly flow increases late tonight as deep low pressure,
centered north of the Great Lakes, tracks east, and a warm front
approaches. Small craft conditions develop late as gusts
increase to over 25 kt. With the southerly flow gusts across the
Great South Bay also reach 25 kt and was added to the advisory
beginning late tonight. Then by Tuesday morning as mixing
south to southwest wind gusts are expected to reach 25 kt across
the remainder of the forecast waters through mid afternoon
Tuesday, and have posted a SCA for those waters. Conditions will
be slower to improve on the ocean waters as gusty west to
northwest winds continue. So have extended the advisory until
late Tuesday night west of Fire Island Inlet, and into Wednesday
morning to the east as SCA conditions last into Wednesday
morning on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet, otherwise offshore
winds and seas slowly subside through the day. Low pressure
passes through on Thursday, but with a relatively weak pressure
gradient. Winds and seas are therefore likely to remain below
advisory thresholds. There is a chance however that the pressure
gradient tightens enough on Saturday for gusts to 25 kt,
however the more likely scenario is that conditions across all
waters remain below advisory levels through the rest of the
forecast period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday
for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET