000
FXUS61 KOKX 071044
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
544 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts through the area early this morning. A cold
front then follows late this afternoon into the evening. High
pressure briefly builds into the area tonight into Wednesday.
The next low pressure and associated frontal system impact the
area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then builds
Friday into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast largely on track this morning with a warm front
continuing to lift across the area. A band of showers has been a
bit more widespread than previously anticipated and have
adjusted PoPs up the next few hours. Otherwise, the showers
should continue pushing off to the east of the area through 12z,
with just a few lingering showers across southeast CT and the
east end of LI through 14z. Clouds should slowly diminish in
coverage by late morning into the early afternoon.
The main upper trough axis swings through the region this
afternoon and evening. At the same time, a trailing cold front
approaches from the NW. The front should start moving through
the interior during the late afternoon and then shift off the
coast in the evening. A well mixed W-SW flow sets up into the
afternoon before shifting to the NW behind the front. This will
bring potential for gusts around 20-25 mph, strongest near the
coast. The other story today will be the warmer air ahead of the
cold front. Highs look to reach the middle and upper 60s with
potential for a few spots in urban NE NJ to briefly touch 70
degrees.
The aforementioned upper trough amplifies over the Maritimes
tonight as a building ridge approaches from the west. High
pressure will begin ridging down out of southern Canada helping
to bring a much cooler and drier air mass. A breezy NW wind is
expected tonight with temperatures falling through the night.
Dew points will also drop under cold advection. Lows will fall
into the lower to middle 30s inland to the upper 30s and lower
40s elsewhere. Do not think winds will decouple or completely
drop off early Wednesday morning, which will prevent radiational
cooling and any frost development where temperatures fall into
the low-mid 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will continue at the surface on Wednesday with
the upper ridge axis moving overhead. Much of the day should be
mostly sunny with high clouds increasing in the afternoon ahead
of the next shortwave over the northern Plains. Highs will be
about 5 degrees below normal in the upper 40s inland and lower
50s closer to the coast.
The surface high will weaken Wednesday evening and shift east
of the area to the New England coast. The upper ridge axis will
also slowly shift to the east Wednesday night. The shortwave
tracks towards the Great Lakes and southern Canada Wednesday
night into Thursday. This will send the next frontal system
towards the region. The warm front approaches Wednesday night
with warm advection taking place out of ahead of it. The
guidance indicates a narrow band of strong middle level
frontogenesis shifting from southwest to northeast late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This is along the
middle level warm front, which looks to shift to our northeast
through Thursday morning. The most organized large scale forcing
should remain to our NW and have capped PoPs off at chance
during this time period. Mainly areas of light rain are
expected, especially late Wednesday night into Thursday. While
temperatures may fall well into the 30s inland, they should
remain above freezing. Middle level temperatures will warm with
the passage of the middle level warm front. Any wintry mix is
expected to remain to our north across higher elevations.
The low pressure and associated frontal system will continue
to move across the area on Thursday. The warm front could stall
near the coast during the day with the surface low riding along
it through the afternoon. The organized large scale forcing
remains to the north, but light overrunning rain is possible at
any point during the day, especially if the warm front remains
just to the south. Temperatures are challenging on Thursday due
to the uncertain placement of the warm front. The spread in the
NBM is quite large with the 10th percentile (warm front stays
south of Long Island) showing highs in the in the upper 30s to
low 40s inland and middle 40s to low 50s near the coast. The NBM
90th percentile (warm front lifts north through the region)
gives highs in the upper 50s and low 60s inland to middle and
upper 60s closer to the coast. Have gone with a middle ground
approach and used the NBM 50th percentile for highs on Thursday,
which yield readings in the upper 40s to low 50 inland and
middle to upper 50s near the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term looks to be dominated by a large scale high
pressure system under fairly zonal midlevel flow.
A nose of weak surface high pressure builds into the area from
the west Thursday night and into Friday in the wake of a
frontal system departing to the east. Mid-level energy swiftly
moving through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region will
provide for some additional forcing for ascent along the cold
front positioned to the south. This will likely produce a
frontal wave that develops along it that may attempt to push
some light rain toward the region again on Friday but guidance
has become more consistent in keeping this precipitation to the
south of the area. At a minimum, this may result in some
additional cloud cover for Friday.
The frontal disturbance moves eastward Friday night with the
main center of a strong high pressure building into the region
from the west through the weekend. While the weekend is expected
to be dry, a NW flow from the high pressure building in will
likely result in cooler than average temperatures for the
weekend and into the beginning of next week where highs may not
climb out of the 40s.
A frontal system may then impact the area at some point early
next week, but global models do not have a consensus on
strength, timing, or placement.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front moves across late tonight with a cold front moving
through this afternoon/evening.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period. MVFR most
likely at KSWF for several hours overnight. Can not be completely
ruled out at KTEB, HPN, KBDR and KGON briefly. -SHRA moving through
the area through early this morning, most likely across the
previously mentioned northern TAF sites. Vsby not expected to drop
below VFR.
S/SW winds near 5-10 kt increase to 10-15 kt by morning. Some gusts
near 20 kt will be possible this morning. Wind direction becomes
more westerly this afternoon with gusts maxing out during the
afternoon/evening around 25 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance of MVFR and low chance of rain showers. Timing of wind
gusts could be off by a few hours compared to TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Late Night: Mainly VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in rain at night.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in rain during the
day. Slight chance of MVFR or lower in rain at night.
Friday: Slight chance of MVFR or lower in rain, mainly in the
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
No changes were made to headlines on the waters. S-SW flow will
continue to increase through the morning as a warm front lifts
north of the waters. Winds will reach 25 kt first on the ocean
and then the non-ocean waters through the morning. Winds will
fall below 25 kt on the non-ocean waters this afternoon, but
should remain around through this evening. Winds likely become
more marginal SCA overnight, but ocean seas will be 5-6 ft.
Winds will remain below SCA levels Wednesday through Thursday,
but seas may remain near 5 ft east of Fire Island Inlet through
midday Wednesday.
While there may be a brief period of gusts approaching 25 kt and
seas on the ocean approaching 5 ft Friday afternoon, sub-SCA
conditions are expected Thursday night through the weekend under
generally high pressure.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW