000
FXUS61 KOKX 072330
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
630 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through this evening, then high pressure
briefly builds into the area late tonight into Wednesday. The
next low pressure system approaches Wednesday night and passes
through on Thursday. High pressure then builds in for Friday
through the weekend and lasts into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Updated the forecast to increase pops across SE CT based on
observed radar. Other minor adjustments were made, otherwise
the forecast is mostly on track.
The region is placed in the warm sector with an approaching
cold front. This cold front is expected to move across the
region from NW to SE from through early this evening.
With the cold front moving into the region into this evening,
larger scale models depict mainly dry conditions and showers
dissipating before reaching the area. However, mesoscale models
do depict some isolated to scattered shower activity developing
and moving across parts of the region with the cold front early
this evening. Coinciding with this is a mid level vorticity
maximum moving across is some low level instability of a few
hundred J/kg according to the RAP13. In subsequent models runs,
the shower activity has remained with some decrease in coverage
and intensity.
Slight chance to chance of rain showers with the cold front,
mainly across eastern sections of the region across Southeast
Connecticut and Eastern Long Island into early this evening.
One mitigating factor for the showers is the very dry air aloft
which may limit the shower coverage considerably. There will be
a lot of westerly flow throughout the troposphere.
Winds will be picking up out of the west to northwest going into
this evening with the passage of the cold front. The pressure
gradient increases between the parent low attached to the cold
front moving into the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure north
of the Great Lakes. Colder air advects into the region with the
NW winds, increasing the depth of the mixing layer. Breezy
conditions expected through tonight. Gusts around 20 to 30 mph
expected for many locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure center stays in Southeast Canada Wednesday with
low pressure hovering in the Canadian Maritimes. The high
pressure area starts to build in Wednesday but will be
retreating Wednesday night in advance of the next frontal
system.
Day starts out mostly sunny but clouds will increase in the
afternoon. A colder air mass will be in place with forecast
highs only around 50 for most locations, feeling even cooler
with some breezy conditions, but the afternoon wind gusts will not
be as high as the previous night.
Clouds continue to increase Wednesday night with isentropic lift
and gradual overspreading precipitation moving in. This will be
more for the northern half of the area, for Lower Hudson Valley
and Southern Connecticut. Those locations will be closer to the
low pressure and associated warm front developing north of the
area. Ambient temperatures should keep this mainly a rain event,
but a few pockets of sleet mixing in could occur with any
relatively more intense precipitation across parts of the
interior. Lows Wednesday night will generally be in the mid 30s
to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak surface low shifts through the forecast area during Thursday
as it runs into a ridge aloft. Combined moisture and isentropic lift
ahead of an associated warm front will be generally greater over the
northern half of the forecast area, however the entire area will see
a chance of light rainfall. The system shifts to our east Thursday
night, but its cold front will linger to our south through Friday.
Looks like Thursday night should remain dry, however with some mid
level shortwave lift and larger-scale lift from an upper jet streak
putting us in its right-entrance quadrant, additional light rainfall
has a chance to brush the forecast area during the day Friday. Have
therefore maintained a slight chance of rain for Friday.
Surface high pressure builds through the weekend and remains the
dominant weather feature through Tuesday. Only a weak and moisture-
starved cold front is expected to pass through on Saturday. Expect
an extended period of dry weather.
High temperatures around or above normal for the most part on
Thursday, falling to around normal on Friday, then below normal for
the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as a cold front moves through this evening, followed by high
pressure building from the northwest.
SW-WSW winds around 10 kt should veer more to the W just ahead of
the approaching front. Fropa accompanied by SCT-BKN050 cigs and
possibly a shower or sprinkle, especially KBDR/KGON, passing through
the NYC metros by 00-01Z. NW winds 10-15G20-25kt expected
tonight. There may be a brief lull late tonight before at least
sustained winds and more sporadic gusts resume daytime Wed after
12Z-13Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible with wind shift this evening and onset of
gusts.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: Mostly VFR. MVFR possible in chance of rain.
Could have sleet mixed in at onset at KSWF.
Thursday: Chance of rain. MVFR cond possible.
Thursday night: Mainly VFR.
Friday: Chance of rain with MVFR cond in the morning, otherwise
VFR.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA wind gusts expected through tonight for all waters. For
Wednesday, the SCA wind gusts continue on the South Shore Bays,
Eastern LI Sound, as well as the Peconic and Gardiner Bays
until 11AM. For the ocean west of Fire Island Inlet, the SCA
conditions continue until 12PM and for the rest of the ocean
zones, SCA conditions continue until 4PM. SCA ocean seas near 5
to 6 ft forecast tonight into early Wednesday. For late Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, sub-SCA conditions expected on all
waters.
Low pressure passes through on Thursday with a relatively weak
pressure gradient. Winds and seas are therefore likely to remain
below advisory thresholds, although a building swell with the
low in the vicinity may have seas approaching 5 ft on the ocean
Thursday night. Sub-SCA conditions otherwise for the rest of the
forecast period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM