000
FXUS61 KOKX 081158
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
658 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds into the area today before
giving way to the next low pressure system tonight. The low
and its associated frontal system pass through on Thursday.
High pressure then begins to build in on Friday, remaining
in control into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this morning. Cold advection is well underway
with much cooler and drier air filtering into the area. High
pressure will continue ridging out of Southern Canada through
the day. There will be a modest pressure gradient in place this
morning and early afternoon with potential of wind gusts 20-25
mph. These winds should diminish from west to east through mid
to late afternoon as the ridge axis builds overhead.
Temperatures will be much cooler than Tuesday with highs in the
middle 40s inland and upper 40s to near 50 closer to the coast.
The next low pressure and its associated frontal system will
quickly approach tonight. The trend in the modeling has been to
set up the axis of strongest warm advection and middle level
frontogenesis to our north overnight. As a result, the bulk of
the precip is likely going to pass well to the north. Have
trended PoPs to follow this trend, but still will carry a slight
chance to low chance PoP for the northern third of the region.
Model soundings show a very dry subcloud layer with the
lingering ridge axis nearby. Strengthening middle level flow
will increase overrunning enough that a few areas of light
precip are possible. However, the dry subcloud layer is
initially going to make it difficult for any precip to reach the
surface. Wet-bulbing should help begin to saturate this dry air
and a few ice pellets could mix in with light rain across the
northern interior. Surface temperatures should be in the middle
to upper 30s in these locations, so no impacts are expected if
any ice pellets are observed. Any ice pellets quickly transition
to just plain light rain towards day break across the interior.
Closer to the coast, it should remain dry with just a slight
chance of some light rain developing around day break as the
surface warm front draws closer.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light rain is possible Thursday morning as overrunning
continues over the area, especially across the Lower Hudson
Valley, southern Connecticut and Long Island. The parent low
pressure shifts towards Northern New England into the afternoon.
The warm front should move into the area through the day, but
likely not lift north of the area. There is a chance that a weak
secondary low develops along the warm front, which could
develop a bit more widespread light rain late morning into the
afternoon across southeastern CT and the east end of Long
Island. Have capped PoPs off at high chance, but may need to be
increased if subsequent model cycles become more consistent on
this feature. The frontal system should push off to our east
Thursday evening with any light rain ending. Rainfall amounts
remain light with this event. PoPs over the NYC metro are just
slight and measurable rainfall may not occur.
The NBM temperatures spread for highs on Thursday has become
smaller, but spread still exists mainly due to the placement
of the warm front. Confidence is high that the warm front will
move through the southern portion of the area, but should not
fully lift north of the area. The NBM 50th percentile seems like
a good compromise with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s south
and low to middle 50s north. Portions of interior S CT may
struggle to reach 50 degrees. If the warm front lifts further
north than currently expected, highs could be several degrees
warmer. If the warm front ends up staying further south, then
highs will be several degrees cooler.
The frontal system continues pushing offshore Thursday night.
High pressure over the central states will begin building
towards the east coast into Friday. A strong jet streak will
pass to the north and will help draw in middle and upper level
moisture late Thursday night through much of Friday. The result
will be mostly cloud skies. The lower levels are very dry, but
some of the guidance continues to hint that a sprinkle or light
rain is possible near the coast. Will continue to show a slight
chance PoP for now, but the day will likely remain dry. Highs
will be close to normal in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended period will be dominated by a strong and large
high pressure system that builds in this weekend and remains in
place through much of next week. A weak cold front passes
through on Saturday but a lack of moisture will prevent it from
having any sensible impact. As the high pressure builds into the
area Saturday and Sunday, a NW flow will allow colder air from
the north to filter down into the area. This will result in
temperatures being below average. Highs on Sunday and Monday
will only be in the middle to upper 40s for much of the region,
about 10 degrees below average.
THe high pressure is expected to remain in place through the
middle of next week. Some guidance hints at a possible weak
disturbance approaching from the NW to try to break up the high
on Monday but confidence is low. Even if that were the case,
limited moisture will likely not result in anything other than
some additional cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the area today. A warm front
approaches tonight, moving through the terminals into Thursday
morning.
VFR with SKC into the early morning. VFR then continues into
tonight with approach of a warm front. MVFR cigs become
increasingly likely Thursday morning from 10-15Z. Earlier times
likely for northernmost terminals (KSWF). Low chance of -SHRA,
possibly with sleet mixed in at KSWF.
NW flow persists around 10-15 KT with some gusts 20-25 KT early this
morning. Gusts may become more occasional into the late morning
before dissipating from west to east into the afternoon. The
flow remains out of the NW through today and slowly decreases.
Gusts likely last longest at KISP, KBDR, and KGON. Winds lessen
tonight as they begin to shift to the NE and E overnight with
the approach of a warm front. Winds continue to veer into
Thursday morning with a S/SE wind for most coastal terminals by
12Z Thursday. Veering likely continues to SW Thursday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for end timing of gusts into morning.
Gusts may be more occasional than frequent.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: MVFR likely in the morning and early PM, then VFR. Low
chance of -SHRA.
Thursday night: Mainly VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in any -SHRA in the
afternoon.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty NW flow will continue on the waters through this morning.
Gusts around 25 kt will continue on the Eastern Sound, LI Bays,
and ocean west of Fire Island Inlet through late morning. East
of Fire Island Inlet, gusts up to 25 kt may continue through
late afternoon. Seas will slowly subside below 5 ft into the
afternoon. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast tonight with a weak
pressure gradient in place. A frontal system moves across the
waters on Thursday. The associated warm front looks to lift over
the waters, which may allow winds on the ocean to reach
marginal SCA levels. The system pushes east Thursday night. Seas
may build close to 5 ft with the passage of the system late
Thursday and Thursday night. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions are
expected into Friday.
Sub-SCA conditions expected for the weekend and into early next
week under high pressure.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-
332-340-345-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW