000
FXUS61 KOKX 090030
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
730 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build across today before giving way
to low pressure tonight. The low and its associated frontal
system will pass through on Thursday. High pressure will then
begin to build in on Friday, and remain in control into Monday.
A weak disturbance will pass through Monday night, followed by
high pressure into the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BKN to OVC high clouds well in advance of a weak low to the
west has overspread the area. Band of light rain with a few
pockets of IP being being reported over nrn PA and eastward into
northern portions of Orange County this evening. This is mainly
due to dry sub cloud layer, thus if precip can survive its
descent to the sfc and few ice pellets or a wet snowflake cannot
be ruled out. Adjusted Wx and PoPs a touch to account for this
over the next few hours. Otherwise some sprinkles or a spot
light shower, and low chance PoP with the low should hold off
until late tonight for northern sections. Temps aloft warm
rather quickly and so did not include sleet or ice pellets after
midnight for the most part.
Colder NAM MOS temps with widespread subfreezing temps inland
seem too low given dense high cloud cover already over the area.
So used GFS MOS for lows, ranging from the mid 40s invof NYC, to
around for the outer suburbs and along the coast, to the
mid/upper 30s most elsewhere. Did bottom out temps near freezing
in some spots across the Long Island Pine Barrens and across
interior SE CT.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Light rain is likely Thursday morning as overrunning continues
over the area, especially across the Lower Hudson Valley,
southern Connecticut and Long Island, The weakening parent low
should be moving across upstate NY during that time, while a
warm frontal passage takes place across at least part of the
area, most likely making it through the NYC area and Long
Island, and getting hung up just north of the metro area and
along the CT coastline. Where the front makes it through, high
temps should reach the upper 50s and 60s, possibly upper 60s in
the urban corridor of NE NJ.
The rain should shift eastward into SE CT and ern Long Island
during the afternoon, while a cold frontal passage begins to
take place late in the afternoon from the NYC metro area
north/west, with winds shifting W late afternoon and then NW Thu
night.
Lows Thu night should range from the lower/mid 40s across the
metro/coastal areas, to the mid/upper 30s inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A very weak wave of low pressure along a cold front should slide
east and offshore Friday into Friday night. Have kept PoPs
minimal and stayed close to the NBM. For now keeping it dry,
although a shower or a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out on
Friday, especially further east. Clouds should hang in for
awhile Friday before clearing starts to work in later in the day
and evening as high pressure begins to build in from the west.
With the high in control by Friday night look for clearing skies
and seasonably cool temperatures. The high will continue to
build and settle over the area through the weekend. Look for
brisk and cool conditions to begin the weekend, with the winds
gradually diminishing into Sunday. Despite sunshine on Sunday, a
chilly air mass for this time of year will keep temperatures
hard pressed from getting out of the 40s. Light winds and clear
skies should lead to good radiational cooling Sunday night with
widespread 20s a good bet in outlying areas into early Monday
morning.
Into next week high pressure should be in control for the
majority of the time. There is some disagreement among the NWP
deterministic guidance regarding Monday night in the handling
of shortwave energy and how far south it ultimately gets. There
may be enough digging with respect to the vort max heading
towards the region that more clouds and a few showers or even a
few wet snowflakes well N and W cannot be completely ruled out
late Mon night into early Tue morning. For now keeping things
predominantly dry and will wait and see how the guidance trends.
Thus followed NBM closely, but deviated upwards a bit with
clouds for the aforementioned period.
Temperatures will average below normal through the period with
height rises expected late in the period towards the middle of
next week. Temperatures by Wed should return to normal levels
with dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front approaches through the overnight as low pressure
tracks south of the Great Lakes. The warm front moves into, or
just north of the region Thursday morning, and is quickly
followed by a cold front mid to late afternoon northwest, and
into the early evening east.
VFR through the overnight, with ceilings lowering to MVFR
Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings and light rain continue into the
afternoon, improving mid afternoon north and west, and toward
the end of the forecast period east, as light rain ends.
Light NW to N flow this evening veers to NE at the metro
terminals, and light and variable at the outlying terminals
later this evening and into the overnight. Ahead of the warm
front late tonight winds become SE, and with the passage south.
Low confidence on the timing of the wind shifts and is dependent
on the movement of the warm front.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected through the overnight. Amendments
likely Thursday morning, during the morning push, for timing of
MVFR and light rain. And then during the afternoon for
improving conditions.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night: VFR. NW gusts around 20kt.
Friday through Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas continue to diminish into tonight as high
pressure ridge axis slides across the waters, with winds
gradually shifting from NW-N through NE-E by midnight to SE-S
late. Attm forecast calls for S flow at least 15-20 kt and seas
building back to 4 ft, but a several-hour period of SCA conds
may be possible in the morning and early afternoon and possibly
the Long Island south shore bays, with gusts 25-30 kt.
After a cold fropa late Thu afternoon and Thu evening, SCA cond
are also possible Thu night in NW flow on the outer ocean
waters, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 ft.
Sub small craft conditions expected from Fri through the
weekend. W flow behind a cold front on Friday gives way to a NW
flow with gusts at times around 20 kt Friday night into early
Saturday. Ocean seas will be at 2-4 ft to begin the weekend,
and average closer to 2 ft late Sunday through Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG