000
FXUS61 KOKX 090542
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1242 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens overnight as low pressure and a warm front
approach. The low and its associated frontal system will pass
through on Thursday. High pressure will then begin to build in
on Friday, and remain in control into Monday. A weak disturbance
will pass through Monday night, followed by high pressure into
the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with precipitation out of the area to
the north. Generally dry conditions are expected for the rest of
the night.
Colder NAM MOS temps with widespread subfreezing temps inland
seem too low given dense high cloud cover already over the area.
So used GFS MOS for lows, ranging from the mid 40s invof NYC, to
around for the outer suburbs and along the coast, to the
mid/upper 30s most elsewhere. Did bottom out temps near freezing
in some spots across the Long Island Pine Barrens and across
interior SE CT.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Light rain is likely Thursday morning as overrunning continues
over the area, especially across the Lower Hudson Valley,
southern Connecticut and Long Island, The weakening parent low
should be moving across upstate NY during that time, while a
warm frontal passage takes place across at least part of the
area, most likely making it through the NYC area and Long
Island, and getting hung up just north of the metro area and
along the CT coastline. Where the front makes it through, high
temps should reach the upper 50s and 60s, possibly upper 60s in
the urban corridor of NE NJ.
The rain should shift eastward into SE CT and ern Long Island
during the afternoon, while a cold frontal passage begins to
take place late in the afternoon from the NYC metro area
north/west, with winds shifting W late afternoon and then NW Thu
night.
Lows Thu night should range from the lower/mid 40s across the
metro/coastal areas, to the mid/upper 30s inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A very weak wave of low pressure along a cold front should slide
east and offshore Friday into Friday night. Have kept PoPs
minimal and stayed close to the NBM. For now keeping it dry,
although a shower or a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out on
Friday, especially further east. Clouds should hang in for
awhile Friday before clearing starts to work in later in the day
and evening as high pressure begins to build in from the west.
With the high in control by Friday night look for clearing skies
and seasonably cool temperatures. The high will continue to
build and settle over the area through the weekend. Look for
brisk and cool conditions to begin the weekend, with the winds
gradually diminishing into Sunday. Despite sunshine on Sunday, a
chilly air mass for this time of year will keep temperatures
hard pressed from getting out of the 40s. Light winds and clear
skies should lead to good radiational cooling Sunday night with
widespread 20s a good bet in outlying areas into early Monday
morning.
Into next week high pressure should be in control for the
majority of the time. There is some disagreement among the NWP
deterministic guidance regarding Monday night in the handling
of shortwave energy and how far south it ultimately gets. There
may be enough digging with respect to the vort max heading
towards the region that more clouds and a few showers or even a
few wet snowflakes well N and W cannot be completely ruled out
late Mon night into early Tue morning. For now keeping things
predominantly dry and will wait and see how the guidance trends.
Thus followed NBM closely, but deviated upwards a bit with
clouds for the aforementioned period.
Temperatures will average below normal through the period with
height rises expected late in the period towards the middle of
next week. Temperatures by Wed should return to normal levels
with dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front approaches early this morning, moving over the
region after day break. The warm front is quickly followed by a
cold front mid afternoon northwest to early evening east.
VFR to start with ceilings lowering to MVFR during the morning.
Some pockets of light rain or sprinkles are possible early this
morning inland and then areawide after day break. Greater
coverage of light rain is possible across Southern Connecticut
and Long Island mid morning into the early afternoon. MVFR
ceilings will quickly improve to VFR from west to east in the
afternoon as the cold front works its way through the area.
Brief IFR is possible at KGON late morning into early afternoon.
Light NE winds at the metro terminals and light and variable at the
outlying terminals become SE ahead of the warm front through the
early morning. Winds become S as the warm front lifts north. The
front may not completely move north of the area, so winds at
inland terminals and potentially Southern Connecticut terminals
could remain more SE-E. The cold front passage will shift winds
to the W and NW in the afternoon and evening. NW winds should
gust up to 20 kt at NYC terminals tonight.
Timing of wind shifts may be off by a few hours and is dependent
on the movement of the warm front.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely this morning for timing of MVFR. Brief light
rain or a few sprinkles are possible 13-17z.
Timing of improvement to VFR may be off by 1-2 hours.
Timing of wind shifts may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Late Thursday night: VFR. NW gusts around 20kt ending.
Friday through Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas continue to diminish into tonight as high
pressure ridge axis slides across the waters, with winds
gradually shifting from NW-N through NE-E by midnight to SE-S
late. Attm forecast calls for S flow at least 15-20 kt and seas
building back to 4 ft, but a several-hour period of SCA conds
may be possible in the morning and early afternoon and possibly
the Long Island south shore bays, with gusts 25-30 kt.
After a cold fropa late Thu afternoon and Thu evening, SCA cond
are also possible Thu night in NW flow on the outer ocean
waters, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 ft.
Sub small craft conditions expected from Fri through the
weekend. W flow behind a cold front on Friday gives way to a NW
flow with gusts at times around 20 kt Friday night into early
Saturday. Ocean seas will be at 2-4 ft to begin the weekend,
and average closer to 2 ft late Sunday through Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...JE/BG/MW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG