000
FXUS61 KOKX 091532
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure impacts the area today with a cold frontal passage by
tonight. High pressure will then begin to build in on Friday, and
remain in control through Monday. A cold front moves across
Monday night, followed by the return of high pressure into the
middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast continues to remain generally on track. Lowered high
temperatures today slightly. However, there is some uncertainty
with temperatures, specifically for more southern portions of
the forecast area such as Long Island, New York City, and its
surrounding metro area, as there remains in question whether
the warm front will lift north of these areas, which will be
quickly followed by the cold front later today. Additionally,
any weak low that may develop along the warm front may push the
front north east of the low. Lowered POPs slightly, but they
remain in the same POP category as previous. Previous discussion
follows.
Low pressure impacts the area today. Winds have begun to switch
out of the SE and S along the coast which is causing
temperatures to slowly rise with the approach of the surface
warm front. This trend is expected to continue into the morning
hours as the warm front is expected to move through the area
from south to north. In addition to increasing temperatures with
the warm frontal passage, some showers may also develop,
however the bulk of the moisture and forcing from the parent low
remains well north of the area, so have generally lowered PoPs
from the previous forecast.
The warm front is expected to make its way through the entire
area by this afternoon which will allow high temperatures to be
well above average. Much of the southern coastal and NYC metro
areas will rise into the low to possible middle 60s. Areas
further north are expected to rise into the middle to upper 50s.
By afternoon, the cold front is expected to move through the
area with a wind shift from the NW. This may force additional
showers along the coast but coverage should be fairly scattered.
Drier and cooler conditions are then expected tonight as gusty
NW winds of 10-15 mph with gusts upward of 20-25 mph advect in
cooler air. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s for the
northern tier and low 40s for the coastal areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure then builds into the area in the wake of the cold
frontal passage for Friday. Some additional divergence from an
upper level jet will enhance a developing frontal wave moving
along the cold front to the south. This may result in some
additional cloud cover and possibly light rain showers
approaching the area from the south. Guidance largely has the
precipitation remaining south of the area so kept the forecast
dry with a fair amount of cloud cover. Highs Friday will be
cooler with temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. Lows Friday
night will be in the 30s to near 40 degrees for the NYC metro.
High pressure continues to build into the area for Saturday with
a decreasing NW flow. A dry cold frontal passage is expected to
reinforce the CAA from the north. This will once again keep high
temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s for Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No major changes to the forecast in the long term with the NBM
followed closely.
A split flow aloft sets up over the northeast into Sunday with
ridging from northern New England into Southern Canada and a zonal
flow to our south. The ridge shifts off the New England coast Sunday
night into Monday by a broad upper trough Monday night into Tuesday.
Ridging returns for the middle of next week. The latest global
models and ensemble means are in good agreement on the overall
pattern.
The main story through the long term will be dry conditions and
below normal temperatures. A strong surface high will build over the
northeast Saturday night into Sunday Night. Both Saturday and Sunday
night will likely end up being the coldest nights of Fall 2023 so
far. Lows will be in the middle and upper 20s inland and upper 20s
to low 30s closer to the coast. Lows in the NYC metro and may come
close to freezing, but are currently forecast to stay just above.
Highs on Sunday will be in the middle to upper 40s. The surface high
weakens on Monday as it shifts towards the coast. Low pressure over
Ontario will track towards the region into Monday night. This will
send a cold front through the area by early Tuesday morning. The
associated shortwave is broad with little moisture available. There
may be a bit of an increase in clouds late in the day into the
night, but the forecast remains dry at this time. Highs on Monday
should be a bit milder than Sunday, but still below normal in the
upper 40s to around 50 degrees. High pressure quickly returns behind
the front Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures each day should only
reach the upper 40s and low 50s for highs with nighttime
temperatures mainly in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front in close proximity to the terminals this morning
will causing some variablity with winds especially at the
coastal terminals. A cold front follows in the afternoon with a
WNW flow to develop.
Mainly MVFR this morning based on latest obs and guidance. This
is a change from the previous thinking of it being a mainly VFR
forecast. However, conditions do improve this afternoon into
early this evening as winds go around to the WNW. MVFR ceilings
could persist longest at KGON due to the later timing of the
cold frontal passage.
Winds across the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals will
generally be light and variable, except for KJFK which will be
more southerly due to the warm front just north. The remaining
coastal terminals will be S/SE less than 10 kt, then becoming
WNW this afternoon into early this evening. A frontal wave could
result in a more northerly flow at KGON this afternoon before
becoming NW this evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional VFR before cold frontal passage this afternoon.
Winds will likely to variable at times this morning/early
afternoon due the close proximity of warm front and weak
frontal wave.
An occasional gust 15-20 kt possible this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday through Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions approach SCA thresholds today as gusty winds with
the passage of a warm front this morning approach 20-25kt from
the S, mainly on the ocean. Gusts near 25 kt may occur but
expected to be in short enough timeframe to not warrant a SCA
issuance. A cold front then passes over the waters this
afternoon and evening allowing a wind shift to the NW with gusts
once again 20 to possibly 25kt. Not confident enough in
strength and duration of gusts so opted to not issue a SCA at
this time. Seas may rise upward of 4-5 feet.
Winds and waves then fall below SCA criteria late tonight. While
there may a few gusts that approach 25 kt on Friday, largely
expecting winds to remain below SCA threshold.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels Saturday night through
Monday with high pressure in control. A cold front passes through
the waters Monday night bringing a chance for wind gusts 25-30 kt on
the ocean. The stronger winds could also occur on the non-ocean
waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...JP/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/DW
MARINE...DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW