000
FXUS61 KOKX 092059 CCA
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through early tonight. High pressure remains
in control through the weekend and is followed by a cold
frontal passage Monday night. High pressure then builds in again
behind the front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Surface cold front likely just west of the area as of 330 pm, with
the warm front just south of the area...over southern and
central New Jersey and weak low pressure well south and just
east of Long Island. The parent low is well north and west of
the area, north of the Great Lakes. Much of any forcing has
pushed east of the area, and expecting dry conditions here on
out as the low secondary low off shore strengthens and the
parent low weakens as they both head east. However, showers
developing over central New Jersey could clip southern Long
Island if the warm front advects farther north, but with the
weak low to the east of the area, it isn`t likely that the warm
front will push any farther north as a northerly flow develops.
Skies will become mostly clear through the first half of tonight,
but clouds are expected to increase after midnight as some divergence
from an upper level jet will enhance a developing frontal wave
moving along the cold front to the south. Guidance continues to keep
precipitation remaining south of the area for Friday, so kept the
forecast dry with a fair amount of cloud cover tonight and
Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build in for Friday, aiding in
suppressing any precipitation to the south. Cooler conditions are
expected, with highs near normal for this time of year, in the lower
to middle 50s and lows in the 30s to lower 40s. The high remains in
control Friday night, so dry conditions continue through then as a
somewhat zonal flow develops aloft.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A combination of high pres and moisture starved fronts is expected
to keep the area dry thru the period.
A mid 1030s high will build towards the area on Sat, then over the
area on Sun. NW flow will usher in a cool and dry airmass on Sat.
Deep mixing should help to offset the cooling airmass. Only limiting
factor for temps Sat ngt is the wind, keeping most of the are from
max radiational cooling. This seems to be reflected in the NBM, so
it was used for temps.
Winds lighten up on Sun, but highs generally in the mid 40s with a
lack of deep mixing and a cold airmass in place. Better radiational
cooling Sun ngt. Went with the NBM for now, but the numbers could
verify 5 degrees or more colder, closer to what the MEX is
suggesting.
A SW flow develops on Mon as the high settles S of the cwa. The next
cold front comes thru dry Mon ngt attm. A roughly 1030 high then
builds in thru Wed/Thu, keeping the area dry. Mon-Wed blw climo,
then some return flow could warm things up a few degrees for
Thu.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front and frontal wave will exit to the east by early this
evening. High pressure then noses in from the WSW tonight into
Friday, while low pressure tracks across eastern Canada.
Ceilings have improved to VFR for all but KGON, which should improve
from MVFR to VFR in the next 2 hours. A mid level cloud deck moves
in from the west overnight at around 12kft.
Winds will be mainly W/NW for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley
terminals early this evening, but a more northerly flow for the
eastern terminals on the backside of a frontal wave. Winds will then
increase a bit after 00Z and become NW for all terminals. A few gusts
15-20kt will be possible tonight. Winds will then back to the WSW
on Friday with occasional gusts of 15-20kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
An occasional gust 15-20 kt possible tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Afternoon through Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt on Tuesday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria. The
passage of a cold front may bring gusts to around 25 kt through
early tonight, but right now only expecting it to be occasional,
and limited to near shore. Waves are expected to remain 3 to 4
ft across the ocean waters tonight through Friday night.
Although gusty NW flow is expected on Sat, winds are progged to
remain blw 25 kt attm. Winds and seas blw sca lvls Sun-Mon, then a
cold front could bring winds, and possibly seas, up to sca lvls on
Tue, especially on the ocean. Winds and seas blw sca lvls on Wed
with high pres building in.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP/MW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP